brooklynwx99 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 47 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. pretty significant block showing up later in the month, but the Pacific is kinda trash need to see if the block can become more west based and exert its will on the pattern, perhaps a forcing more of a ridge bridge up top. either that, or the Bering Sea ridge nudging east into AK regardless, nice to see an Atlantic block develop... just need to see some other factors become more favorable for legit shots at snow south of the M/D line 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño. Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño. Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play. That was an impressive block. I remember Bob Chill, PSU, and CAPE called that pattern about 10 days out. The pattern happened perfectly. Then I remember the first model runs that showed the storm. The GFS dropped the first bomb. The others followed. That was about a week out. That was the cleanest tracking event I can ever remember. Models just kept showing that huge hit over and over until it hit. I received 20" here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: sir, this is a La Nina Seems more like base climo at this point. It’s been cloudy, too, in this fast flow. My buddy confirmed that he’s only made 398kwh this December compared to 1100 last December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Ji said: ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken? It's the iciest model in the world. Always disregard unless something similar is shown by literally every other model. Whole GEM suite is usually too cold at the surface at range (and pretty close to gametime) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh… Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see. Despite the yellows over us, this isn't exactly a warm look. Anticyclonic ridge out west where we want it, and broad cyclonic trough over midwest/east/NE. Trough NW of Hawaii with -EPO/-WPO and hint of GL blocking, with continued Scand ridging. Second half of Jan could be fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh… well the same weeklies kept it cold through Christmas into New Years until it didnt. I think Bam is going to bust and then call it win when we salvage 10% of January lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Despite the yellows over us, this isn't exactly a warm look. Anticyclonic ridge out west where we want it, and broad cyclonic trough over midwest/east/NE. Trough NW of Hawaii with -EPO/-WPO and hint of GL blocking, with continued Scand ridging. Second half of Jan could be fun. as @CAPEalways says...forget the color and follow the dang lines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago How unusual is this? I dont recalling seeing a 500mb pattern like this often. When are we icebox ever the same time Alaska is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Latest WB EURO weeklies do show the later half of month to be colder. Below anomalies for entire month. Pretty good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, Ji said: ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken? Probably not any more broken then any other model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see. Looks promising!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB EURO weeklies do show the later half of month to be colder. Below anomalies for entire month. Pretty good... we dont need to be in the blue. We can survive +1 or +2......we just cant be orange or red(temp wise) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, Ji said: How unusual is this? I dont recalling seeing a 500mb pattern like this often. When are we icebox ever the same time Alaska is? Looks like a big rainbow over the central US lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, winter_warlock said: Looks like a big rainbow over the central US lol it actually looks like a ridge lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 34 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Despite the yellows over us, this isn't exactly a warm look. Anticyclonic ridge out west where we want it, and broad cyclonic trough over midwest/east/NE. Trough NW of Hawaii with -EPO/-WPO and hint of GL blocking, with continued Scand ridging. Second half of Jan could be fun. As Ji said, I don't pay much attention to the colors esp on these extended products. Follow the flow. With the EPO ridge and the TPV in that position, that's a cold look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: As Ji said, I don't pay much attention to the colors esp on these extended products. Follow the flow. With the EPO ridge and the TPV in that position, that's a cold look. GFS and CMC Extended are a carbon copy of the Euro Ext(weekles), maybe even a little better. Nice to see that the pattern progression heading into mid Jan is in agreement among the big 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 16 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Looks like a big rainbow over the central US lol Except there’s shit at the end of it instead of gold 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago The EPS has the best look in the NA(legit -NAO) heading into early Jan with a flattened flow underneath, despite the awful look out west. At least leaves open the possibility for something to track south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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