December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[brooklynwx99]

47 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

pretty significant block showing up later in the month, but the Pacific is kinda trash 

need to see if the block can become more west based and exert its will on the pattern, perhaps a forcing more of a ridge bridge up top. either that, or the Bering Sea ridge nudging east into AK

regardless, nice to see an Atlantic block develop... just need to see some other factors become more favorable for legit shots at snow south of the M/D line

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño.

Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play.

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño.

Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play.

That was an impressive block. I remember Bob Chill, PSU, and CAPE called that pattern about 10 days out. The pattern happened perfectly. Then I remember the first model runs that showed the storm. The GFS dropped the first bomb. The others followed. That was about a week out. That was the cleanest tracking event I can ever remember. Models just kept showing that huge hit over and over until it hit. I received 20" here. 

[Ji]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas

ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken?

[87storms]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sir, this is a La Nina

Seems more like base climo at this point. It’s been cloudy, too, in this fast flow. My buddy confirmed that he’s only made 398kwh this December compared to 1100 last December.

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive noticed that GGEM has alot of digital ice this year. IS that model broken?

It's the iciest model in the world. Always disregard unless something similar is shown by literally every other model. Whole GEM suite is usually too cold at the surface at range (and pretty close to gametime) 

[WxUSAF]

If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh…

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we care about the euro weeklies, looks like things are mostly crappy until the last week (19-26 Jan) when the PAC ridge shifts east into Alaska and BC. Until then…ehhh…

Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see.