December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[jayyy]

Canadian is definitely the best region wide outcome

[mdhokie]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Oh man I'd shit my drawers if that happened!!!

Just don't wipe it on the blinds okay?

[winter_warlock]

Just now, mdhokie said:

Just don't wipe it on the blinds okay?

Lmaooo okay!!

[Wxdood]

What’s the status of the Christmas 70 degree torch?

[katabatic]

35 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

That whole evolution from day 12 on is just wacky.  Would love to see it play out like that lol

At a minimum, maybe what this means is as we cook Christmas dinner and the oven is on, we won't have to run the A/C like I've had to do more than once in Richmond.

[Steve25]

I would happily accept all the warmth and rain events possible from the 17th to the 24th if it is followed by a wintry stretch from Christmas to New Years. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I would happily accept all the warmth and rain events possible from the 17th to the 24th if it is followed by a wintry stretch from Christmas to New Years. 

Same.

[IronTy]

Surprised nobody has posted a map yet.  

 

Oops, guess I didn't look far enough back.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Wxdood said:

What’s the status of the Christmas 70 degree torch?

Subtract 15-20 degrees.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Oh man I'd shit my drawers if that happened!!!

Shit drawers pattern >>> shit the blinds pattern 

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, IronTy said:

Surprised nobody has posted a map yet.  

 

Oops, guess I didn't look far enough back.  

If that were to verify this forum would probably crash lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

38 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

If that were to verify this forum would probably crash lol

I say let it happen, and let it crash!!!

[SnowenOutThere]

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.  

[jayyy]

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.  

Everyone’s panicking about a ten day reload period. Gotta love winter around these parts lol

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Everyone’s panicking about a ten day reload period. Gotta love winter around these parts lol

If it's a reload period with a definitive end period, that's fine. We all get worried when things just go zonal for weeks on end.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.  

Yeah. Could be MJO related if some Models are correct in their back into Ph.8 Depiction. Rossby and Kelvin Waves are really throwing a monkey wrench in the Guidance looks like.

[midatlanticweather]

At least GFS keeps the cold right after Christmas. The Christmas miracle went away

Things can still change (get worse -- Or better) - happy the non-stop torching does not look to be there. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

At least GFS keeps the cold right after Christmas. The Christmas miracle went away

Things can still change (get worse -- Or better) - happy the non-stop torching does not look to be there. 

 

 

The Euro weeklies got noticeably cooler today from yesterday's torchiness. Looks like the world won't be ending in Weenieville after all. 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The Euro weeklies got noticeably cooler today from yesterday's torchiness. Looks like the world won't be ending in Weenieville after all. 

Seems the ops led the way on this one (provided the non-torch verifies)

[Benjamn3]

Maybe I’m wrong but it still looks torchy for Xmas time on the opps doesn’t it? 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Maybe I’m wrong but it still looks torchy for Xmas time on the opps doesn’t it? 

Last night's Euro was, but that's still 264hrs away, which is still too far away to be certain. Imho, it'll all come down to whether Christmas ends up being a day, more or less, before or after a cold frontal passage.

[Benjamn3]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last night's Euro was, but that's still 264hrs away, which is still too far away to be certain. Imho, it'll all come down to whether Christmas ends up being a day, more or less, before or after a cold frontal passage.

That makes sense and thank you for the kind reply. I know it’s still in fantasy land but just trying to understand people smarter than me in this forum. Haha. Really hoping we can squeeze Xmas in behind a frontal passage. The ensembles don’t look to bad so we’ll see I reckon. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that configuration with low heights diving into the N ATL like that from SE Canada is pretty typical of retrograding -NAO events. would line up well with the lag from the SSW we had in late Nov @Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, we're getting close to a -NAO in the allotted time from Stratosphere warming lag, on the 0z GFS ensembles

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

[BristowWx]

35 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

That makes sense and thank you for the kind reply. I know it’s still in fantasy land but just trying to understand people smarter than me in this forum. Haha. Really hoping we can squeeze Xmas in behind a frontal passage. The ensembles don’t look to bad so we’ll see I reckon. 

Even if the front passes it still looks like a snooze fest.  Too bad today isn’t the 25th because this would be great.  

[Benjamn3]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Even if the front passes it still looks like a snooze fest.  Too bad today isn’t the 25th because this would be great.  

Well I keep my expectations low for Xmas. Lol as long as it’s not 55+ for the high and it’s chilly enough to have a fire in my stove that morning and evening it’s a win in my book. Snow and cold would be magnificent but beggars can’t be choosers. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, we're getting close to a -NAO in the allotted time from Stratosphere warming lag, on the 0z GFS ensembles

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

In keeping with typical medium/long range modeling, pattern changes are usually rushed by the models. My wawg (wild azz weenie guess) is that we see something close to those cold/snowy solutions advertisrd the last few days come to fruition not around Christmas, but after the New Year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In keeping with typical medium/long range modeling, pattern changes are usually rushed by the models. My wawg (wild azz weenie guess) is that we see something close to those cold/snowy solutions advertisrd the last few days come to fruition not around Christmas, but after the New Year. 

That is one heck of a -PNA we need to take down. The signal on 384hr ensemble mean is +300dm! That's the average of 21 members. Then after the RNA goes away, it usually takes a few days to flush out the pattern here downstream. Kind of tough to get that change as early as New Years.  Models don't typically bust on a -3 PNA by any more than 1std. 

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In keeping with typical medium/long range modeling, pattern changes are usually rushed by the models. My wawg (wild azz weenie guess) is that we see something close to those cold/snowy solutions advertisrd the last few days come to fruition not around Christmas, but after the New Year. 

Prob a good guess. Same thoughts here. The only real way to overcome a GoA or PacNW trough is -nao and some sort of 50/50 if you want a classic storm track. Enough signs of CAD to not write off the next 2 weeks but it looks fairly hostile. Those deets can get sorted at shorter ranges. I'd sure like to see the AO do another steep drop. Models haven't been doing well in that dept. Even 7 day progs have been slow to catch those moves recently. Maybe another is in the cards before month end. Patience is always needed at times every winter in these parts.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That is one heck of a -PNA we need to take down. The signal on 384hr ensemble mean is +300dm! That's the average of 21 members. Then after the RNA goes away, it usually takes a few days to flush out the pattern here downstream. Kind of tough to get that change as early as New Years.  Models don't typically bust on a -3 PNA by any more than 1std. 

That's why I said "after New Years." But come January, average temps can produce, so I'mnot looking for BN temps. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Maybe we never warm up?