December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[jayyy]

Canadian is definitely the best region wide outcome

[mdhokie]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Oh man I'd shit my drawers if that happened!!!

Just don't wipe it on the blinds okay?

[winter_warlock]

Just now, mdhokie said:

Just don't wipe it on the blinds okay?

Lmaooo okay!!

[Wxdood]

What’s the status of the Christmas 70 degree torch?

[katabatic]

35 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

That whole evolution from day 12 on is just wacky.  Would love to see it play out like that lol

At a minimum, maybe what this means is as we cook Christmas dinner and the oven is on, we won't have to run the A/C like I've had to do more than once in Richmond.

[Steve25]

I would happily accept all the warmth and rain events possible from the 17th to the 24th if it is followed by a wintry stretch from Christmas to New Years. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I would happily accept all the warmth and rain events possible from the 17th to the 24th if it is followed by a wintry stretch from Christmas to New Years. 

Same.

[IronTy]

Surprised nobody has posted a map yet.  

 

Oops, guess I didn't look far enough back.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Wxdood said:

What’s the status of the Christmas 70 degree torch?

Subtract 15-20 degrees.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Oh man I'd shit my drawers if that happened!!!

Shit drawers pattern >>> shit the blinds pattern 

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, IronTy said:

Surprised nobody has posted a map yet.  

 

Oops, guess I didn't look far enough back.  

If that were to verify this forum would probably crash lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

38 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

If that were to verify this forum would probably crash lol

I say let it happen, and let it crash!!!

[SnowenOutThere]

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.  

[jayyy]

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.  

Everyone’s panicking about a ten day reload period. Gotta love winter around these parts lol

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Everyone’s panicking about a ten day reload period. Gotta love winter around these parts lol

If it's a reload period with a definitive end period, that's fine. We all get worried when things just go zonal for weeks on end.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Of course, it is the long range OP GFS but it keeps things active with real chances during the Christmas period. Its first window is now within 10 days away.  

Yeah. Could be MJO related if some Models are correct in their back into Ph.8 Depiction. Rossby and Kelvin Waves are really throwing a monkey wrench in the Guidance looks like.

[midatlanticweather]

At least GFS keeps the cold right after Christmas. The Christmas miracle went away

Things can still change (get worse -- Or better) - happy the non-stop torching does not look to be there. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

At least GFS keeps the cold right after Christmas. The Christmas miracle went away

Things can still change (get worse -- Or better) - happy the non-stop torching does not look to be there. 

 

 

The Euro weeklies got noticeably cooler today from yesterday's torchiness. Looks like the world won't be ending in Weenieville after all. 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The Euro weeklies got noticeably cooler today from yesterday's torchiness. Looks like the world won't be ending in Weenieville after all. 

Seems the ops led the way on this one (provided the non-torch verifies)

[Benjamn3]

Maybe I’m wrong but it still looks torchy for Xmas time on the opps doesn’t it? 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Maybe I’m wrong but it still looks torchy for Xmas time on the opps doesn’t it? 

Last night's Euro was, but that's still 264hrs away, which is still too far away to be certain. Imho, it'll all come down to whether Christmas ends up being a day, more or less, before or after a cold frontal passage.