December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[LP08]

Gfs with the Christmas Miracle again.  Start a thread!

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Gfs with the Christmas Miracle again.  Start a thread!

You know it.. Here come the comments

Sign here

Lock it up

Give me that and call it a winter

The big ones are sniffed out early. 

It all is coming.. Until Dr No or the next run. Lol

[Ji]

[TSSN+]

Long range gfs is loltastic. Blasting on Christmas than again 3 days later. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

475dm north of New Foundland/570dm in Alaska, it's the 13/14, 14/15 pattern. 

[bncho]

0z GFS christmas miracle... they sniff the big ones out early lol 

[Steve25]

It would be pretty amusing if we come out of the cold period that was hyped up quite a bit with very little snow and then find a way to squeeze a legit snowstorm into this upcoming pattern 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models don't usually correct significantly when there is a PNA projected to be -2 to -3 for an extended period of time. Sometimes you will trend toward a better polar orientation (more -EPO), but that doesn't favor deep cold/snow, it just mutes the warmup. 

[midatlanticweather]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Models don't usually correct significantly when there is a PNA projected to be -2 to -3 for an extended period of time. Sometimes you will trend toward a better polar orientation (more -EPO), but that doesn't favor deep cold/snow, it just mutes the warmup. 

https://media.tenor.com/2739Fe1Wj-QAAAAM/whomp-whomp.gif

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

Gfs with the Christmas Miracle again.  Start a thread!

Why the hell not, I was all for starting a thread for a random date in winter and gassing it up for no reason

[WxUSAF]

0z euro has Christmas Eve snow 

[Ji]

0z euro has Christmas Eve snow 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro has Christmas Eve snow 

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

[Ji]

https://x.com/aigle_e/status/1999817769336873309?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

See Ji's post above yours!

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro has Christmas Eve snow 

 

[Paleocene]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

https://x.com/aigle_e/status/1999817769336873309?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

No idea who this is  but i like what they're saying

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

475dm north of New Foundland/570dm in Alaska, it's the 13/14, 14/15 pattern. 

 

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

I can't recall exactly what the overall 2013-14 and 2014-15 500-mb look was like, but yeah.  I somehow seem to remember we really lucked out (particularly in 2013-14) with a more persistent +PNA, we had little or no help on the Atlantic side, and it was a Nina as well.  But it worked out!

Another thing, taking these plots at face value for now even though it's waaay out there in time:  I've noticed the model cycles that look better, less torchy, or even amazing like last night do not amplify things such that we end up with a ridiculous 588+ dm ridge over the East Coast.  Yeah, I know that's obvious, but my point mainly is that while the PNA looks negative, there is a strong ridge over western AK and there's more of a "bowl" like broad trough through Canada and the northern US, with occasional shortwaves pressing down to potentially deliver cold air.  That's not something you see in a wall-to-wall torch pattern, and not something that floods Canada with warm air.  I'm kind of encouraged by that look!  In a way it almost reminds me as well of February 2007, there was a wide, broad trough that covered much of the CONUS, or something like that, which enabled delivery of very cold air from Canada.  If one ignores the color shading for the anomalies on the map above, and just look at the overall height contours, you can maybe see what I mean here (there's also a hint of confluence in the northeast).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 hours ago, bncho said:

0z GFS christmas miracle... they sniff the big ones out early lol 

 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro has Christmas Eve snow 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

You did hit the nail on the head by saying our torch patterns are disintegrating as we get closer....

[anotherman]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

You did hit the nail on the head by saying our torch patterns are disintegrating as we get closer....

Well, I sure hope that's the case.  The long post I put above the one with the "Lord, it's a miracle!" gif was just some stuff I observed from cursory looks at the 500-mb flow.  I'd much prefer (and assume others as well) a broad bowl than a pumped up ridge that not only would torch us but would blow away cold air in Canada which would take a longer time to regenerate.

BTW...you don't care for "Shawshank Redemption" (the gif I put up there), with the weenie tag emoji?? 

[Bob Chill]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

See Ji's post above yours!

Im not a huge fan of wxbell numerical index plots. Im not sure what algorithm they use but it's usually overstated to reality. Good trend though!

Ensembles have struggled with quick shifts of the AO/NAO in both directions since early Nov. Part of me didn't want to believe the shift strongly positive but I finally caved to the idea after 5+ days of guidance showing it. Of course as soon as I caved things started uncaving haha. Wx is a cruel hobby but never boring. 

If blocking does in fact reset back to favorable, we're right back in the game even with the Pac being a bit hostile. I like CAD overrunners. They may get messy but they are rarely dry. Fingers crossed 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Im not a huge fan of wxbell numerical index plots. Im not sure what algorithm they use but it's usually overstated to reality. Good trend though!

Ensembles have struggled with quick shifts of the AO/NAO in both directions since early Nov. Part of me didn't want to believe the shift strongly positive but I finally caved to the idea after 5+ days of guidance showing it. Of course as soon as I caved things started uncaving haha. Wx is a cruel hobby but never boring. 

If blocking does in fact reset back to favorable, we're right back in the game even with the Pac being a bit hostile. I like CAD overrunners. They may get messy but they are rarely dry. Fingers crossed 

Yeah that's kind of what I was thinking with my comments above about the broad "bowl" type look.  I would think that at least keeps a fair bit of cold air on this side of the hemisphere, which keeps a solid amount of cold air ever lurking in Canada.  If we don't have some jacked up ridge form that floods all the cold air out, we can perhaps score what you're mentioning...a CAD overrunning event, and even if it flips to rain, there is still cold air nearby that can come right back in behind the system.  At least that's the hope!

[Benjamn3]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Im not a huge fan of wxbell numerical index plots. Im not sure what algorithm they use but it's usually overstated to reality. Good trend though!

Ensembles have struggled with quick shifts of the AO/NAO in both directions since early Nov. Part of me didn't want to believe the shift strongly positive but I finally caved to the idea after 5+ days of guidance showing it. Of course as soon as I caved things started uncaving haha. Wx is a cruel hobby but never boring. 

If blocking does in fact reset back to favorable, we're right back in the game even with the Pac being a bit hostile. I like CAD overrunners. They may get messy but they are rarely dry. Fingers crossed 

I agree with you. They are messy and can give us hellacious ice storms, but they usually roll in good and juiced. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

that configuration with low heights diving into the N ATL like that from SE Canada is pretty typical of retrograding -NAO events. would line up well with the lag from the SSW we had in late Nov @Stormchaserchuck1

[winter_warlock]

9 hours ago, bncho said:

0z GFS christmas miracle... they sniff the big ones out early lol 

Oh man I'd shit my drawers if that happened!!!