December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

18z GFS is a christmas miracle but south wins again lol (move this to digital snow thread if need be mods)

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z GFS is a christmas miracle but south wins again lol (move this to digital snow thread if need be mods)

Plenty of time for a south trend

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Plenty of time for a south trend

 

South trolling will hereby met with north trolling so watch it brother!!!

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z GFS is a christmas miracle but south wins again lol (move this to digital snow thread if need be mods)

You know what? I wouldn't even care if they got more...it would be a frickin' White Christmas!!

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z GFS is a christmas miracle but south wins again lol (move this to digital snow thread if need be mods)

They can have it if I get it as depicted. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

South trolling will hereby met with north trolling so watch it brother!!!

My south trend was sarcastic.

I'm in Northern MD where I'm expecting 3 flurries tomorrow night lol

 

[mitchnick]

Operational Gfs and 12z Euro sure give more hope than their ensembles. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They can have it if I get it as depicted. 

There should be a little more after that. Still a few more frames of snow. 

Bncho jumped the gun a little

[Chris78]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Operational Gfs and 12z Euro sure give more hope than their ensembles. 

Yeap both are fugly.

 

But what is dipticted on the 18z gfs is a path to victory with a cold front blowing through with a low pressure forming SW of us the next day.

Of course a thread the needle that will be gone by 00z but we can all dream of a white Christmas for 6 hours...

[IronTy]

Wait, I thought I was supposed to break out my shorts for Christmas after yesterday's runs.  

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

There should be a little more after that. Still a few more frames of snow. 

Bncho jumped the gun a little

Long as he didn't create a slight breach of etiquette by skipping the triple dare you.

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Yeap both are fugly.

 

But what is dipticted on the 18z gfs is a path to victory with a cold front blowing through with a low pressure forming SW of us the next day.

Of course a thread the needle that will be gone by 00z but we can all dream of a white Christmas for 6 hours...

Nothing wrong with a long range op showing probably the only way something can work with the prog'd longwave pattern. The second half of Dec is looking hostile but not impossible. Shutout patterns are the worst thing a weenie can endure. Progressive CAD type setups seem likely coming up but combining that with precip is something the mid/short range has to figure out lol

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I asked some of the more knowledgeable people around here and this warmup does have legs. MJO moving to phase 5 being one piece of the puzzle. However it’ll be more like a week of 50s instead of a 70 degree torch.

I saw phase 7 and 8. I didn't see a 5 what r u looking at?

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

18z GFS is a christmas miracle but south wins again lol (move this to digital snow thread if need be mods)

Where do I sign up for this? South gets a foot but Dale City gets 7 and the last time I looked that's a White Christmas! I hope with all that is in me, that Penhook gets annihilated with 19. Bob Chill can drive that red tractor with a blade and pile all that snow 35 feet high!

Penhook is the new North Central Maryland, or even the new Alleghenies.

[Benjamn3]

The south will rise again. 

[BristowWx]

6 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Nah.  It will be muted. It wants to be cold this December.  Couple more runs and the models will spit out a white Christmas.  Yes, yes ithey will. 

Told you. I drink beer and know things. Won’t be there later but damn what a view. 

[Benjamn3]

I want this to happen with my soul, but damn, you don’t get much more hopium than an operational run at hour 316 on the 18z GFS. Lol 

[Ji]

18z ai with a Christmas miracle

[pazzo83]

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Those were absolutely rotten winters. Even the snowstorm that followed in January 2016 couldn't save the 2015-2016 winter.

uh no - that was one of the greatest snowstorms in recent history for the Mid Atlantic.  NYC's all time 24hr snowfall.

[Ji]

uh no - that was one of the greatest snowstorms in recent history for the Mid Atlantic.  NYC's all time 24hr snowfall.

Eskimo Joe is a sick human being lol

[pazzo83]

Just now, Ji said:

Eskimo Joe is a sick human being lol

that was a weird winter, but still good IMO.  For NYC - biggest snowstorm in history plus the last time Central Park got below zero.  Still warm, yes, but those events save it IMO.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

that was a weird winter, but still good IMO.  For NYC - biggest snowstorm in history plus the last time Central Park got below zero.  Still warm, yes, but those events save it IMO.

I remember the only cold week that entire winter was the week leading up to the big storm. The day after the storm was the last cold day that winter. The week after the storm was in the 60's and it didn't really get cold again. 

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I remember the only cold week that entire winter was the week leading up to the big storm. The day after the storm was the last cold day that winter. The week after the storm was in the 60's and it didn't really get cold again. 

it was cold again around Valentine's Day (DCA got down into the low teens, highs in the 20s).

[Paleocene]

52 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I remember the only cold week that entire winter was the week leading up to the big storm. The day after the storm was the last cold day that winter. The week after the storm was in the 60's and it didn't really get cold again. 

I remember being outside with my kid 48 hours after the storm and it was drip drip drip in the warm January sun. The way it can really cook around here that time of year lol

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

18z ai with a Christmas miracle

Check out the blocking too lol. Don't think I've ever seen this before... the legendary banana block haha

[jayyy]

Check out the blocking too lol. Don't think I've ever seen this before... the legendary banana block haha

Think they updated the name to the RavensRule block

[bncho]

this isn't even a half bad signal lol (unfortunately it's 300 hours out)