December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

UK looks like the GFS for Sunday

Further west and sharper with the SW/PV interaction.  Postive steps and vibes lol

[87storms]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

With potentially another Xmas torch staring us in the face, I decided to make a plot to see if it’s been as real as it feels or has been for years. So this plot is BWI above normal and much above normal (>=10F) occurrences from 2005-2024. Thicker lines are the year by year counts for each calendar day and thin lines are smoothed by 7 days. Short answer is yes…and the week after Xmas before new years has been the most torch prone.

It’s like a mini version of Colorado’s two winters per season.

Data nerd recommendation…a relative stacked bar (or line) chart based on the past 20 years with the separations based on the different deviations from average temps on that date.

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice right entrance region of the jet max over us also around 6-12z on the gfs. 

Also an extremely strong temp gradient from the 925-700mb levels which contributes to baroclinicity.  

[yoda]

Its actually a bit better than the 12z GFS to be fair... C and NE MD get decent hit (12z UKIE 10:1 snow map close up)

 

[H2O]

No thread for this until Saturday. If someone does then weather will punish us for our audacity 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

No thread for this until Saturday. If someone does then weather will punish us for our audacity 

Not if we post an image of Superman IV to scare the weather into bringing us some snow

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its actually a bit better than the 12z GFS to be fair... C and NE MD get decent hit (12z UKIE 10:1 snow map close up)

 

I’d sell out for 2” at this point. DC can get 5” just give me some dang snow. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Two camps right now, GFS and UK south and CMC and Euro north.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Two camps right now, GFS and UK south and CMC and Euro north.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

0z and 6z euro looked a lot like gfs and ukie? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

0z and 6z euro looked a lot like gfs and ukie? 

Euro just further north as usual 

[paulythegun]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z and 6z euro looked a lot like gfs and ukie? 

6z Euro looked a bit north..hopefully we can get it back shortly. 

[yoda]

60s for Christmas Eve on the 12z GFS lol

[Terpeast]

I’ll take a blend of euro and gfs for mby 

[katabatic]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

60s for Christmas Eve on the 12z GFS lol

More or less normal.

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

60s for Christmas Eve on the 12z GFS lol

To 20's Christmas morning! lol  

 

That -nao is trying

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

60s for Christmas Eve on the 12z GFS lol

Around 40 for Christmas Day... so not too bad

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

To 20's Christmas morning! lol  

 

That -nao is trying

I'm fine if this is a one or three day event. I don't want to see this ridge just set up and bake for weeks on end. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS Christmas temp. anomaly compared to 6Z.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Around 40 for Christmas Day... so not too bad

1pm

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

1pm

Much better.

[LP08]

I mean...if we can get the ao/nao domain to start latching on to this idea....I know...way out in la la land.  

 

[stormtracker]

45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

DC is a snow town?

whoa

[stormtracker]

25 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Legit lol

[bncho]

44 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its actually a bit better than the 12z GFS to be fair... C and NE MD get decent hit (12z UKIE 10:1 snow map close up)

 

might be 6" depending on ratios in DC

[WxUSAF]

Euro AI is consistent with the idea of coastal development on Sunday. Definitely the solution PHL-BOS is rooting for. Don’t know how much snow for our area. Probably 1-3”ish?

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

Short Pump. 

Randy only knows about Long Pump. 

[TSSN+]

Nice for dc/balt, the shaft for Mitch, psu and me 

[LP08]

Euro had the same trends at 500 that we saw on the GFS.  Couple more ticks and the LP gets going sooner...