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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

For reference, it’s colder than 0z, but still has AN temps most of that week. Just keeps the ridge axis more in the center of the country vs over us. But maybe a step toward again muting west coast troughing and an east coast warmup.

Works for me. There's a big difference between upper 40s for highs, than low 60s for days on end.

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Just now, TSSN+ said:

Meh worse than 12z but still there 

There were some changes at 500 that I liked actually. Looked like it almost phased in some more energy up in Canada. I think it was pretty close to a bigger event. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There were some changes at 500 that I liked actually. Looked like it almost phased in some more energy up in Canada. I think it was pretty close to a bigger event. 

H5 looked worse to me. Flatter than 12z. 12z was more digging in and blew the storm up quicker, Plenty of runs to go. Hopefully can find something positive in the next few days. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There were some changes at 500 that I liked actually. Looked like it almost phased in some more energy up in Canada. I think it was pretty close to a bigger event. 

That little ball of vorticity does phase but not until it is off the coast to our NE. I think this is destined to be a light event, which I am fine with at this point, with the potential for low end moderate- maybe 4"?

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13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

H5 looked worse to me. Flatter than 12z. 12z was more digging in and blew the storm up quicker, Plenty of runs to go. Hopefully can find something positive in the next few days. 

It was a tad further south but not sharp. I think we are looking at a broader wave here, and thus somewhat limited in potential. I'm not picky. 1-3 would be glorious at this juncture.

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's that end of the run overrunning fantasy again on the Gfs similar to 12z.

Edit: morphs into a hellava snowstorm 

yea, one heck of a storm. 30” in the jack zones, messy fun in the metros. But then again it’s the most normal winter GFS run, so 

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's that end of the run overrunning fantasy again on the Gfs similar to 12z.

Edit: morphs into a hellava snowstorm 

It's in la-la land sure, but yeah looks like a big (and quite cold) sleet/ice event mainly in the I-95 corridor around DC/Balt, with a snowstorm to the west and north!  Mid-20s and ice?  That would qualify as a @Bob Chill "glaciation" scenario!  I say bring it!

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8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's that end of the run overrunning fantasy again on the Gfs similar to 12z.

Edit: morphs into a hellava snowstorm 

Now that’s fun: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025120818&fh=354

This is Sunday: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025120818&fh=138

 

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49 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

It's in la-la land sure, but yeah looks like a big (and quite cold) sleet/ice event mainly in the I-95 corridor around DC/Balt, with a snowstorm to the west and north!  Mid-20s and ice?  That would qualify as a @Bob Chill "glaciation" scenario!  I say bring it!

A foot of ice is on my bucket list. I'd take a 12" ice storm over a 12" snow storm but that's just me

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A foot of ice is on my bucket list. I'd take a 12" ice storm over a 12" snow storm but that's just me

that's probably a hot take, but not a baseless one. glacier is super cool, and i'd take a messy 6" of snow, 0.5" frzr, 3" of sleet as a close second to a 12" snowstorm.

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1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

It's in la-la land sure, but yeah looks like a big (and quite cold) sleet/ice event mainly in the I-95 corridor around DC/Balt, with a snowstorm to the west and north!  Mid-20s and ice?  That would qualify as a @Bob Chill "glaciation" scenario!  I say bring it!

And it’s on Christmas Eve Eve! Might break the Amwx

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