December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Benjamn3]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're scared from a decade of rug pulls and great patterns that are just two weeks away. It's smart to be cautious. A legit advisory level snowfall before Christmas, that doesn't melt off in two days, would do wonders for this subforum.

I know what it’s about I just meant the models much don’t know. Lol

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO... still in the game.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

[T. August]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO... still in the game.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I think we are playing a different game

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO... still in the game.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

 Not for me it's not

[Terpeast]

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

What’s kinda silly seeing we are still 4+ days out and like said the pattern has been to deamp as we close in. I wouldn’t call anything till we at least get a few runs in a row with similar consistency. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

What’s kinda silly seeing we are still 4+ days out and like said the pattern has been to deamp as we close in. I wouldn’t call anything till we at least get a few runs in a row with similar consistency. 

We’re just not in a climatologically favorable time and the models did not go in a direction I wanted to see today. Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. 

If I end up wrong and it snows, I’ll eat my shoe. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We’re just not in a climatologically favorable time and the models did not go in a direction I wanted to see today. Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. 

If I end up wrong and it snows, I’ll eat my shoe. 

12z euro and gfs were good for dc area. 18z bumped it back north. Let’s see what 0z holds. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

12z euro and gfs were good for dc area. 18z bumped it back north. Let’s see what 0z holds. 

My gut feeling is a strong amped rainer is the least likely outcome. Weak slider without sufficient cold air for much snow on the north end probably most plausible IMO. 

[Weather Will]

I think it is great to have a system to track in December...it has been awhile....if I get an inch I will be happy.  Any accumulation in December is bonus snow.  The latest weeklies indicate Tuesday is not our only chance this month. (WB).

[mitchnick]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

My gut feeling is a strong amped rainer is the least likely outcome. Weak slider without sufficient cold air for much snow on the north end probably most plausible IMO. 

That's what we've seen this summer and fall. I'd run with it until proven wrong.

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. 

I think this is the bigger issue, we don't have the same cold press timing we had previously. Even on the amped runs its a lot more thread the needle cold. That said, its not worth throwing in the towel yet as I think some snow somewhere is likely unless it stays amped. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I think it is great to have a system to track in December...it has been awhile....if I get an inch I will be happy.  Any accumulation in December is bonus snow.  The latest weeklies indicate Tuesday is not our only chance this month. (WB).

Nice to see Warner Brothers is onboard.

[winter_warlock]

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

 Already?? We still have 120+ hours to go

[aldie 22]

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

Mid season form lol sometimes you guys create your own trends. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Mid season form lol sometimes you guys create your own trends. 

Maybe I’m wrong and maybe I’m bailing too early on 12/2 but I’m not feeling a snowy outcome for I-95. It’s too early in the season, and the antecedent cold air is really not *that* cold. Most likely outcome is mainly rain maybe brief mixing along I-95 and a couple inches far NW. 

I do think its great we are tracking two threats early on. That alone is a promising sign for this winter. I just don’t think it’s a hit for us this time. Maybe 12/6 hits instead. Who knows at this point. 

Again, like I said, I’m willing to eat my shoe if I’m wrong. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe I’m wrong and maybe I’m bailing too early on 12/2 but I’m not feeling a snowy outcome for I-95. It’s too early in the season, and the antecedent cold air is really not *that* cold. Most likely outcome is mainly rain maybe brief mixing along I-95 and a couple inches far NW. 

I do think its great we are tracking two threats early on. That alone is a promising sign for this winter. I just don’t think it’s a hit for us this time. Maybe 12/6 hits instead. Who knows at this point. 

Again, like I said, I’m willing to eat my shoe if I’m wrong. 

Said essentially the same last night, tho not as eloquently worded as you. Another 2 weeks would be a little bit better for climo. But like you said, antecedent airmass (which also ties in with climo timing) just isnt good here for the lowlands. 

But....this cant be a bad signal getting chances in the first week of December. Might be a season with ample tracking situations.

Happy Thanksgiving !

[jayyy]

Goal posts have moved a bit for sure. 2-4” N&W, trace to 2” closer to the fall line seems like a reasonable outcome to HOPE FOR at this point. We’ve seen a few last second moves our way the past few years but it is also so early in the season, and not mid January. Still time for things to shift but we should remember the date and our climo and temper expectations accordingly.

[300 square feet]

We all know this will end up being a cold rain. The sooner we accept it, the better. 

[winter_warlock]

19 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

We all know this will end up being a cold rain. The sooner we accept it, the better. 

 They don't call you Mr. Inspiration for nothing lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Not to preemptively call it but I don't think the GFS is going to be what we need it to be. 

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not to preemptively call it but I don't think the GFS is going to be what we need it to be. 

Not at all. Less confluence and higher heights. This one is slipping away

 

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not to preemptively call it but I don't think the GFS is going to be what we need it to be. 

It’s AIFS Ens or bust at this point. Fun early season exercise at the least. Hope we get to try again sooner rather then later 

[mitchnick]

Hard to argue against the warmer forecasts with that retreating High and resulting se'ly return flow.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hard to argue against the warmer forecasts with that retreating High and resulting se'ly return flow.

I tuned out pretty early based on the pattern for my yard. A HP sliding off the NE coast in early Dec never works out well for the lowlands. Places NW at elevation might salvage something, otherwise head to the western highlands to see some snow.

[Ji]

Hard to argue against the warmer forecasts with that retreating High and resulting se'ly return flow.

Canadian still hanging on to a front end thump

[mitchnick]

Never fails that the models show a decent event upcoming, they invariably advertise additional events down the road. Then when the first threat fizzles, all the rest of the threats go with it. Tonight's Gfs is a perfect example, at least thru 240hrs.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Canadian still hanging on to a front end thump

I saw that, but there's always one that clings on to a fantasy. That said, still time to salvage something, but we better start seeing hints of our salvation sooner than later. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Never fails that the models show a decent event upcoming, they invariably advertise additional events down the road. Then when the first threat fizzles, all the rest of the threats go with it. Tonight's Gfs is a perfect example, at least thru 240hrs.

If it's not the Pacific being against us, it's the Atlantic. Within 12 hours everything goes poof. Winter just doesn't have the punch it used to have.

[mitchnick]

Ukie is a light event, but I  didn't bother to look how it got there.