December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Benjamn3]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're scared from a decade of rug pulls and great patterns that are just two weeks away. It's smart to be cautious. A legit advisory level snowfall before Christmas, that doesn't melt off in two days, would do wonders for this subforum.

I know what it’s about I just meant the models much don’t know. Lol

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO... still in the game.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

[T. August]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO... still in the game.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I think we are playing a different game

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO... still in the game.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

 Not for me it's not

[Terpeast]

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

What’s kinda silly seeing we are still 4+ days out and like said the pattern has been to deamp as we close in. I wouldn’t call anything till we at least get a few runs in a row with similar consistency. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

What’s kinda silly seeing we are still 4+ days out and like said the pattern has been to deamp as we close in. I wouldn’t call anything till we at least get a few runs in a row with similar consistency. 

We’re just not in a climatologically favorable time and the models did not go in a direction I wanted to see today. Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. 

If I end up wrong and it snows, I’ll eat my shoe. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We’re just not in a climatologically favorable time and the models did not go in a direction I wanted to see today. Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. 

If I end up wrong and it snows, I’ll eat my shoe. 

12z euro and gfs were good for dc area. 18z bumped it back north. Let’s see what 0z holds. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

12z euro and gfs were good for dc area. 18z bumped it back north. Let’s see what 0z holds. 

My gut feeling is a strong amped rainer is the least likely outcome. Weak slider without sufficient cold air for much snow on the north end probably most plausible IMO. 

[Weather Will]

I think it is great to have a system to track in December...it has been awhile....if I get an inch I will be happy.  Any accumulation in December is bonus snow.  The latest weeklies indicate Tuesday is not our only chance this month. (WB).

[mitchnick]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

My gut feeling is a strong amped rainer is the least likely outcome. Weak slider without sufficient cold air for much snow on the north end probably most plausible IMO. 

That's what we've seen this summer and fall. I'd run with it until proven wrong.

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. 

I think this is the bigger issue, we don't have the same cold press timing we had previously. Even on the amped runs its a lot more thread the needle cold. That said, its not worth throwing in the towel yet as I think some snow somewhere is likely unless it stays amped. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I think it is great to have a system to track in December...it has been awhile....if I get an inch I will be happy.  Any accumulation in December is bonus snow.  The latest weeklies indicate Tuesday is not our only chance this month. (WB).

Nice to see Warner Brothers is onboard.

[winter_warlock]

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

 Already?? We still have 120+ hours to go

[aldie 22]

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2. 

Mid season form lol sometimes you guys create your own trends. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Mid season form lol sometimes you guys create your own trends. 

Maybe I’m wrong and maybe I’m bailing too early on 12/2 but I’m not feeling a snowy outcome for I-95. It’s too early in the season, and the antecedent cold air is really not *that* cold. Most likely outcome is mainly rain maybe brief mixing along I-95 and a couple inches far NW. 

I do think its great we are tracking two threats early on. That alone is a promising sign for this winter. I just don’t think it’s a hit for us this time. Maybe 12/6 hits instead. Who knows at this point. 

Again, like I said, I’m willing to eat my shoe if I’m wrong.