December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Plenty of cold available on today’s Euro Weeklies from week 2 through 6.

This is disappointing. Much warmer the first 2 maps

[Eskimo Joe]

43 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

ENSO thread is doing last rites for December. In fact they’re doing last rites for here on out.

Yea we're in real trouble. Winter is essentially on life support at this point. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I think we're in real trouble.

Just expect the worst every year is what I learned 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

This is disappointing. Much warmer the first 2 maps

We don’t want cold blasting to the Deep South and the snow ends up hitting the Carolinas.

Give me slightly below normal temps with chances of precipitation & we will score some snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Just expect the worst every year is what I learned 

Same. It's ten years since we've had any real winter this these parts. It's like winter has just ceased to exist anymore.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean are they wrong (at least with December)? We've seen time and time again that when a SER establishes itself it takes ~3 weeks to undo the damage and have a winter weather chance again.

Nobody knows with any certainty, just like any other year, but most there speak with way too much certainty imho. The only person who is consistently decent with seasonal forecasting year in and year out is Raindancewx. His forecast for our neck of the woods is slightly BN. He doesn't rely on modeling. I do! Lol I  say go with the Cansips and forget the daily back and forth. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Same. It's ten years since we've had any real winter this these parts. It's like winter has just ceased to exist anymore.

That's the feel over in the enso thread.

[mitchnick]

Not one model had BWI BN for November, though the Cansips was the closest while still being a bit AN. Yet, thru yesterday, BWI is -.1. After this week's cold shot, BN for the month is a virtual guarantee. So eff the back and forth of the models because this Fall has been finding a way to squash threatened warm-ups into average or below. THAT'S what's important imho.

[mitchnick]

Today’s Eps again says bye-bye to the Niña by Christmas with a serious westerly wind burst anomaly at 850mb. 

[IronTy]

I'll take my chances straddling the warm/cold boundary, that's where the action can be.  60F/sunny and 20F/sunny look the exact same through my window on Christmas day. 

[bncho]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is disappointing. Much warmer the first 2 maps

man you were doing so well

[Scraff]

Just curious. Where da fu*k is Randy!?  He no longer likes winter misery!? Get your ass back in here so we can all whine and bitch together. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

man you were doing so well

Nah, he just stopped taking his meds.

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Same. It's ten years since we've had any real winter this these parts. It's like winter has just ceased to exist anymore.

This is a terrible post. Take a break lol.

[CAPE]

WTH is going on in this here thread? Maybe delete it and start over.

[bncho]

pretty decent signal for a rainstorm around nov 30-dec 1. maybe some energy can sneak past the mountains on the 29th while the cold air is still there for some tv snow

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

WTH is going on in this here thread? Maybe delete it and start over.

Im so bummed that the cold in December is already over even though it isn't December yet. Some of these guys are 15 years old or act like it. Makes this place unreadable just like my Vikings are unwatchable. 

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

WTH is going on in this here thread? Maybe delete it and start over.

i know, right? to my delight i saw the "HOT" thing and i thought we were getting hyped, and then i read about last rites for december in fucking november. wtf are we doing yall?

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s Eps again says bye-bye to the Niña by Christmas with a serious westerly wind burst anomaly at 850mb. 

Careful, we don’t want the nina to fade too fast. Winters with a nina that quickly fades to neutral by Jan tend to be less snowy than those that fade more slowly. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Careful, we don’t want the nina to fade too fast. Winters with a nina that quickly fades to neutral by Jan tend to be less snowy than those that fade more slowly. 

With 3.4 at -.7C and underwater temps at -2c+, it wouldn't fade too fast imho. But it would hopefully end the typical, overwhelming Niña crap we often see in winter.

In any event, if I had a choice, I'd roll the dice with what the Eps is showing. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

WTH is going on in this here thread? Maybe delete it and start over.

Just wait until the panic room thread goes live.

[bncho]

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

With 3.4 at -.7C and underwater temps at -2c+, it wouldn't fade too fast imho. But it would hopefully end the typical, overwhelming Niña crap we often see in winter.

In any event, if I had a choice, I'd roll the dice with what the Eps is showing. 

Here’s hoping for the best case scenario - current wave propagates east, lays down tracks for warmer surface/subsurface waters for the next mjo wave going well into 8 and 1 in jan/feb, while confining the nina to east based. Could turn out to be a fun winter if that happened. EPS tries to do this, but GEFS has been better with MJO. We shall see

[Scraff]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

WTH is going on in this here thread? Maybe delete it and start over.

I won’t speak up for anyone else here, but Sunday fun day has been in effect for me since noonish. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EPS at Day 15.  I see this as the glass half full rather than half empty; lot of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere to play with come the second week of December.  Relax, enjoy Thanksgiving with your families this week, and count your blessings. 

[jayyy]

Models have been all over the place, especially with how they handle the PAC…. with wild swings from suite to suite. This is to be expected weeks out.

JFC… everyone saying we’re doomed for December or worse - the entire winter - needs a break from the forum.

Models have been overdoing the “upcoming warm up” for several months now and pretty much no models had us BN for November in mid October.

There is a massive middle area between an epic winter and a total flop. Just keep your expectations in check. Can we perhaps keep the “winters over” posts in the banter or panic room threads?

[Jebman]

Look guys, this post is not about the modeling BUT this IS the December Medium Long Range Discussion Thread. That's fine. I'm down with it. Let's do this.

But, anyone take a look at the calendar lately?

Its still November 23.

Just sayin.

[Albedoman]

I usually do not post in this forum but I feel for you guys too. AS I said a few days ago in the Philly forum:

 

Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus  snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs  but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area..  Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event  and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle.

The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck.  If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast.  The lows  south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time  as it  appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too.  The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us  this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

I basically want a 2-4 in  long duration three day rain event asap  to get the trees feet wet before the ground freezes and to get runoff back into the soon to be dry  streams. Trout fishing and landscaping  this spring will be severely hampered too if you do not get some significant rains in the next 2-3 weeks.  When LCA declares a drought watch folks,its pretty serious. I have USGS gauging stations in my backyard for the Little Lehigh and if this stream dries up, the businesses  will be greatly affected too throughout PA 

 

 

 

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