December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Plenty of cold available on today’s Euro Weeklies from week 2 through 6.

This is disappointing. Much warmer the first 2 maps

[Eskimo Joe]

43 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

ENSO thread is doing last rites for December. In fact they’re doing last rites for here on out.

Yea we're in real trouble. Winter is essentially on life support at this point. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I think we're in real trouble.

Just expect the worst every year is what I learned 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

This is disappointing. Much warmer the first 2 maps

We don’t want cold blasting to the Deep South and the snow ends up hitting the Carolinas.

Give me slightly below normal temps with chances of precipitation & we will score some snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Just expect the worst every year is what I learned 

Same. It's ten years since we've had any real winter this these parts. It's like winter has just ceased to exist anymore.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean are they wrong (at least with December)? We've seen time and time again that when a SER establishes itself it takes ~3 weeks to undo the damage and have a winter weather chance again.

Nobody knows with any certainty, just like any other year, but most there speak with way too much certainty imho. The only person who is consistently decent with seasonal forecasting year in and year out is Raindancewx. His forecast for our neck of the woods is slightly BN. He doesn't rely on modeling. I do! Lol I  say go with the Cansips and forget the daily back and forth. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Same. It's ten years since we've had any real winter this these parts. It's like winter has just ceased to exist anymore.

That's the feel over in the enso thread.

[mitchnick]

Not one model had BWI BN for November, though the Cansips was the closest while still being a bit AN. Yet, thru yesterday, BWI is -.1. After this week's cold shot, BN for the month is a virtual guarantee. So eff the back and forth of the models because this Fall has been finding a way to squash threatened warm-ups into average or below. THAT'S what's important imho.

[mitchnick]

Today’s Eps again says bye-bye to the Niña by Christmas with a serious westerly wind burst anomaly at 850mb.