December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Torch Tiger]

It's put-up or shutup time, no doubt about it.  12/6 already, and we know about that pesky sun angle a month and a half from now...tick tock!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Right on schedule....first major event December 2007.....12/13. December 2008.....12/19. 

Keep the faith-

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right on schedule....first major event December 2007.....12/13. December 2008.....12/19. 

Keep the faith-

for who?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2005...Dec 9th. 2017....Dec 10th. 1970...12/17. 2000.....Dec 30

I had 7 December analogs, and only one had a major event week 1...1981.   2021  had none, and 2000 was 12/30. The other 4 were all either week 2 or 3. It's not blind-weenie faith, as I have posted a great deal of research. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hell, I didn't use 1995...but first warning event in my hood that month was 12/14. 12/9 fell a bit short.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Went look ar 00z

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2005...Dec 9th. 2017....Dec 10th. 1970...12/17. 2000.....Dec 30

I had 7 December analogs, and only one had a major event week 1...1981.   2021  had none, and 2000 was 12/30. The other 5 were all either week 2 or 3. It's not blind-weenie faith, as I have posted a great deal of research. 

Yeah we could see a decent snowstorm sometime in December; that's objectively true, you are correct. 

btw 12/17 was forgettable to most

[Torch Tiger]

I would take 12/9/05 every single day for the rest of my life even if I knew the rest of the winter would suck

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Went look ar 00z

Huh?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah we could see a decent snowstorm sometime in December; that's objectively true, you are correct. 

btw 12/17 was forgettable to most

I keyed in on the second week in my work, but third is possible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Huh?

Knowing him, he meant "won't look at 00z", because it probably sucked.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Knowing him, he meant "won't look at 00z", because it probably sucked.

I meant, went poof at 00z lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I meant, went poof at 00z lol

I don't need to look at guidance....just posters. I know what is going on by who reacts, and how.

[WxWatcher007]

13th still on the Euro. Models will waffle for a while. Main takeaway is that the pattern is ripe for something. No need to live and die on each run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

13th still on the Euro. Models will waffle for a while. Main takeaway is that the pattern is ripe for something. No need to live and die on each run.

I won't event look at an OP until like Tuesday.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right on schedule....first major event December 2007.....12/13. December 2008.....12/19. 

Keep the faith-

I have no doubt it will be a good December.  Already off to a great start in WNE.   Before NYE I'm expecting at least one or two  1"-3" events and at least one warning event for you and me.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/significant-snows-likely-on-horizon-mid.html

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Knowing him, he meant "won't look at 00z", because it probably sucked.

I thought the same…all you need to know. 

[Torch Tiger]

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Huh?

[Modfan2]

Clipper mid week looks like a North of Pike deal.

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/significant-snows-likely-on-horizon-mid.html

Aggressive call

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Clipper mid week looks like a North of Pike deal.

Been that way for days. More like NNE.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Overnight runs still look good for around mid month. NAO dimly negative with a flip around mid-month. PNA about to drop solidly in the next week-10 days. These 2 indices bode well for storm threats materializing. Op runs still showing numerous s/w in the overall amplifying flow which is a good sign. Ensm also show the overall trend to a more amplified pattern coming, albeit for a brief stint. A threat will materialize for the area, specifics still be determined. I’m not sold on a single threat either. I see multiple opportunities for some to cash in.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Overnight runs still look good for around mid month. NAO dimly negative with a flip around mid-month. PNA about to drop solidly in the next week-10 days. These 2 indices bode well for storm threats materializing. Op runs still showing numerous s/w in the overall amplifying flow which is a good sign. Ensm also show the overall trend to a more amplified pattern coming, albeit for a brief stint. A threat will materialize for the area, specifics still be determined. I’m not sold on a single threat either. I see multiple opportunities for some to cash in.

we continue to trend out west

[Damage In Tolland]

Kind of lost the 12-13th . Just keeps getting pushed back 

[UnitedWx]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we continue to trend out west

That's what we want to see at this point. Models keying in on signals, but won't lock on to an actual possible storm for several days. Let's keep that trend. On another note, I wonder how much of our warming is caused by excessive flatulence due to excessive beer consumption?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Kind of lost the 12-13th . Just keeps getting pushed back 

It’s still there, just not a blizzard on the OP run like 18z…more of a high end advisory or low end warning look on 06z. I’d like to see a bit more amped western ridge to dig this thing more but the system is pretty evident on guidance. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s still there, just not a blizzard on the OP run like 18z…more of a high end advisory or low end warning look on 06z. I’d like to see a bit more amped western ridge to dig this thing more but the system is pretty evident on guidance. 

I’m seeing that as well. We take.

[CoastalWx]

The 13-15 has my interest. Obviously could go to shit, but it has a look that I haven’t seen in awhile. I think I would lean off the explosive look (not impossible) and hope for a 3-6 4-8 deal. 
 

there’s probably another opportunity or so within a few days after that, and then we’ll probably warm up towards the 18th to the 20th. But after that, it looks like there’s gonna be quite the gradient setting up somewhere in the other 40th parallel so. Just hope to be on the good side of that.