December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm also curious as to exactly how high temperatures will climb in the warm sector Friday. You'll have a southerly flow coming off unseasonably cool waters, plus coming off a snow cover on Long Island Sound and then across southern CT. I wonder if it will be more upper 40's versus lower 50's type stuff (not that I guess it matters much). Wind potential probably held back too because I'm sure there would certainly be a stout inversion. Maybe some wind potential if any elevated convection can be generated.

I would not be shocked at some thunder reports

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would not be shocked at some thunder reports

the NAM hints at that potential but it has a little pocket of steeper lapse rates and some higher MUCAPE. The NAM I think can often overdo those in these setups but its not unheard of to get some thunder/lightning with these, especially towards the outer Cape/Islands. 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://twitter.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2000911081170956622?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://twitter.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2000911081170956622?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

What will be higher? Your max temp or gust?

[dendrite]

Open those windows Fri morning and let the dews in.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Ai ensembles looked half decent. Lots of HP to our north for events. 
 

We just have to hope for half ass shortwaves in the flow because if one is strong enough we’re in shorts. 

Good thing that’s been our bread and butter for years now. 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know if I’d call Fridays Storm a grinch…at 6 days away from Xmas, a little to far away from Xmas imo. But just my opinion. 

I’d say it’s anything that rains or wipes the pack within 5-7 days of Christmas…but

56 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Grinch status would be moot if we get a couple on 24th, 25th

This 100%. If it rains but then we snow, the Grinch is either defeated or if it’s in the same storm (rain to snow) then it grew a heart. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I’d put Friday's system as narrowly into Grinch territory. Usually they happen closer to Xmas but if it’s 6 days out that is prob close enough. 
 

At least we have a shot at redemption though. It would be nice to get 2 in a row after we weaseled a decent snow event before Xmas last year. 

[dryslot]

12 hours ago, alex said:

Looks like we’re in for a good pack wiping up here

You will have a snowpack left.

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

We’ll in SNE for sure…NNE will be fine. but being 6 days away from the holiday, and if we can grab(it’s tenuous but not zero) a little something on 12/24 or 12/25, is it a true grinch?   Maybe a hybrid grinch? 

Quick hitting, Shorter duration system, 1" or less qpf, There will still be snow left, The pack out there can absorb this, But the bigger story is going to be the wind gust ahead of the FROPA.

[Go Kart Mozart]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

plus coming off a snow cover on Long Island Sound

Jeez, I've been out of town...but what happened up there?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Jeez, I've been out of town...but what happened up there?

whoops...that should have just said Long Island...not the sound lol. 

Long Island had a nice little hit from the storm. 

But I guess looking deeper...it will be difficult to prevent temps/dews from climbing into the lower 50's though I am curious to see how far north we can get those. Could struggle to get the warm front to lift much past the Pike. If that sfc low either trends a bit farther southeast or a weak wave develops along the front...the warm sector would get squashed a bit. Probably would see a funny shaped front

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm also curious as to exactly how high temperatures will climb in the warm sector Friday. You'll have a southerly flow coming off unseasonably cool waters, plus coming off a snow cover on Long Island Sound and then across southern CT. I wonder if it will be more upper 40's versus lower 50's type stuff (not that I guess it matters much). Wind potential probably held back too because I'm sure there would certainly be a stout inversion. Maybe some wind potential if any elevated convection can be generated.

My experience says in this winter setup my high is 53

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Open those windows Fri morning and let the dews in.

Wonder if you’ll even hit 40

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My experience says in this winter setup my high is 53

You’ll come very close to 60. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My experience says in this winter setup my high is 53

I wonder if we start Friday with some very dense fog 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ll come very close to 60. 

Ain't happening James 

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Open those windows Fri morning and let the dews in.

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

I have been noticing some interesting trends in the NHEM.  The northern Caspian is already frozen, the Hokkaido ice bridge is forming, Saginaw bay is frozen, Hudson's Bay is waaaay ahead of last year (I believe full freeze up was January 17th), etc.

How cold is the NHEM compared to recent trends?  Is it a lot colder than "normal", or am I just being fooled by comparison to last year?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ain't happening James 

This screamer is a beast

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This screamer is a beast

Yeah spots will be close to 60

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah spots will be close to 60

Cape you yea

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cape you yea

I think your area into interior SE Ma. Away from water. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think your area into interior SE Ma. Away from water. 

Ding ding ding . His area always is hottest in these . I’ll hit 56 here 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think your area into interior SE Ma. Away from water. 

Like I said 53 seems to be my climo while Taunton East is higher.  

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ding ding ding . His area always is hottest in these . I’ll hit 56 here 

No Kev its Taunton east .

[DavisStraight]

EC-AIF has some serious cold around Christmas to the New Year.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No Kev its Taunton east .

I don’t think you can use strict charts in a screamer . They’ll never catch onto the warmth fully until last minute . Factoring in Climo too much

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think you can use strict charts in a screamer . They’ll never catch onto the warmth fully until last minute . Factoring in Climo too much

We shall see but again 53 is 90% of the time. Anyways coming soon. Thigh high to a horse 

[CoastalWx]

53 or 60, still a disaster. 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Spoken from the guy that doesn't have 4 under the age of 7

No thanks for extended outages.  No one under 7 here, but on Christmas our 3-bedroom, one bathroom home will have 11 people (with 7 ladies) with ages 7 to 79.  
 

Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters.

All of the big storms have avoided us since April of last year.