December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely. This was a warm rain event 36-48 hrs ago. So we watch and wait.  No worries. 

We worry

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I hope we can get all of SNE in on this one 

[Kitz Craver]

Bizarre trajectory, SW CT looks good I guess.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I hope we can get all of SNE in on this one 

I see no reason this doesn’t get good snows into CNE. Classic north trend over modeled confluence that weakens closer in  we’ve seen it so many times over the years 

[George001]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I see no reason this doesn’t get good snows into CNE. Classic north trend over modeled confluence that weakens closer in  we’ve seen it so many times over the years 

Yeah the NW to SE track we are seeing modeled is very rare. I’m skeptical that’s right

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol at this trend in the Pacific. went from an AK trough of doom to legit +PNA

Can we just have a 30yr anniversary party…

[WxWatcher007]

Also if you look at the skynet siblings, they’ve both trended north with the precipitation shield the last four runs. Nothing comes easy around here but we’re far from out of the game. The trends have generally been good recently imo.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We worry

That’s your whole problem…stop that silly behavior. You have no control. So be at peace for god sakes.  You sound like a dam crackpot.  Seriously …get a hold of yourself. 

[SouthCoastMA]

CJ for EMA with Saturday's storm? looks like cold ll easterly/northeasterly flow with system going south of us. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s your whole problem…stop that silly behavior. You have no control. So be at peace for god sakes.  You sound like a dam crackpot.  Seriously …get a hold of yourself. 

I’d be right there with Scott if this was the other way around. He’s getting porked from every corner.. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’d be right there with Scott if this was the other way around. He’s getting porked from every corner.. 

yup, unless this thing gets a serious bump north, we’re on the outside looking in. The trajectory especially makes this garbage for eastern areas if we don’t see a move.

Its easy for wolfie to say because he’s probably in the best spot relative to all of New England 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We can always pin our hopes to the 6z icon 

[SouthCoastMA]

not really worried about this one. doesn't look like much even if it creeps north. 1-3, 2-4" type system?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’d be right there with Scott if this was the other way around. He’s getting porked from every corner.. 

again..this is lunacy. You can’t control it. Let the shit go. He/they won at every angle known to man for a long time too.
 

Many times we’d be on the outside looking in WOR, when eastern areas would get buried…can’t count how many times that happened for the big snows….we’d get 8-10, and east of the river got 20-30…that sucked, but nothing you can do.  As recently as 1/22. Storm sucked here…but was an all timer out there. 
 

Hoping all of us can get some come Friday and Saturday. Be nice. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

not really worried about this one. doesn't look like much even if it creeps north. 1-3, 2-4" type system?

I think the upside is higher than that if it comes back north. 6z icon would definitely be more than that.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Also if you look at the skynet siblings, they’ve both trended north with the precipitation shield the last four runs. Nothing comes easy around here but we’re far from out of the game. The trends have generally been good recently imo.

The reality is, I doubt the models have a 100% handle on the strength of the blocking.

So it’s either going to bump back north, or go further south, which should become clear especially after this current system passes

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the upside is higher than that if it comes back north. 6z icon would definitely be more than that.

 

Yeah that looked juicer..the trajectory looks set..we just need that shortwave to start out a bit more north than currently modeled. Though I suppose the trajectory could also shift if the blocking relaxes somewhat. What we don't want to see is a continued trend to suppress..but as it stands it's not too far off from something better in SNE

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The reality is, I doubt the models have a 100% handle on the strength of the blocking.

So it’s either going to bump back north, or go further south, which should become clear especially after this current system passes

Agreed. Let’s hope we are on the better end. At some point we will be. Hang tough. Tough times don’t last, tough people do. 

[Boston Bulldog]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The reality is, I doubt the models have a 100% handle on the strength of the blocking.

So it’s either going to bump back north, or go further south, which should become clear especially after this current system passes

It is a pretty exotic blocking regime. Over recent seasons we’ve seen general attenuation of modeled features on the map within 48 hours of verification time, and that isn’t just limited to low pressure. The shredder will hold, but recent modeling biases *may* indicate that it is overmodeled

[CT Rain]

This system looks like crap at 500mb but we still manage nice lift thanks to warm advection along that baroclinic zone. Probably turns out being a more narrow band of good stuff than what's currently modeled. 

[MJO812]

Everyone is going to have a boner after seeing the icon

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

This system looks like crap at 500mb but we still manage nice lift thanks to warm advection along that baroclinic zone. Probably turns out being a more narrow band of good stuff than what's currently modeled. 

That’ll go over like a lead balloon on youtube..lol.  Better dress that turd up some. 

[512high]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone is going to have a boner after seeing the icon

Icon....if others jump on, then I watch

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON saving the day

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get the mix line to Tolland

[ineedsnow]

Warning event on the ICON.. we hope others follow at 12z but good start

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get the mix line to Tolland

Icy

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Warning event on the ICON.. we hope others follow at 12z but good start

Gfs AI is almost a whiff here also. Gfs is also coming south.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is going to more south than 6z. Icon is out to lunch 

[CoastalWx]

At least the ponds will have ice.