December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Love a melt before Christmas. 

No melt. Just meh.

[brooklynwx99]

meanwhile, RGEM is coming in even more amped lmao

[dendrite]

Kinda glad this one will be south of here. 

I’m already sick of clearing snow. 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

18z HRRR way looks better 

is this post a joke?   Serious question.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No melt. Just meh.

Definitely melted

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Definitely melted

Is what it is son. Let’s talk about Epicosity on Saturday.

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is what it is son. Let’s talk about Epicosity on Saturday.

Your words pops. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meanwhile, RGEM is coming in even more amped lmao

The eternal optimist.

[powderfreak]

Just absolutely rugged out.

9F, gusty winds, arctic fine flake snow adding 2-3” more today, blowing snow, sub-zero wind chills.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just absolutely rugged out.

9F, gusty winds, arctic fine flake snow adding 2-3” more today, blowing snow, sub-zero wind chills.

 

Banner start for you. Stowe is a magical place

[eduggs]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meanwhile, RGEM is coming in even more amped lmao

I think it improved early in the run but then shifted east at the end. The ICON did the same.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs might be ever so slightly better through 48?

[Boston Bulldog]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs might be ever so slightly better through 48?

Yep, small tick NW with the 500mb low. Tiny move though

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Remarkable consistency from the icon. Barely moved from 12z

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS should be a better graze, but nothing like the RGEM or Euro is my guess. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs might be ever so slightly better through 48?

Yup. But the magnitude of run to run changes is so small at this time range now that it will be really difficult to see big improvements. The range of outcomes has significantly narrowed.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yup. But the magnitude of run to run changes is so small at this time range now that it will be really difficult to see big improvements. The range of outcomes has significantly narrowed.

Still early for the gfs

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs might be ever so slightly better through 48?

went from like 1.2" to 1.5"

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS should be a better graze, but nothing like the RGEM or Euro is my guess. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS should be a better graze, but nothing like the RGEM or Euro is my guess. 

Getting late in the game. It was a closer graze, but it would take 5 more moves like that to just get anything even remotely interesting

[ORH_wxman]

Slightly improvements on rgem and GFS but we’re at the point where it can’t trend back. It has to keep ticking better for this to be a solid event outside of the south coast and far SE/Cape. 

[ORH_wxman]

It’s kind of a tease because if you amped this up just a little, you’d probably have quite an intense fronto band with good ratios…difference between a 1-2” scraper and a 5-8” fluff job. 

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot of posters on tilt already on 12/11 

I never expect to have a pack in December, but it's nice when it happens once in a great while. Certainly feeling lucky to have what we have on the ground here in my area. After the showers last night it is SOLID. Am I twisting the knife too much? 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of a tease because if you amped this up just a little, you’d probably have quite an intense fronto band with good ratios…difference between a 1-2” scraper and a 5-8” fluff job. 

I have distant memories of short range models fumbling these types of setups, which enhances the tease. But modeling has improved a lot since the 2000s, and especially the 90s. We don't see big, late shifts very often anymore.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Getting late in the game. It was a closer graze, but it would take 5 more moves like that to just get anything even remotely interesting

Some are salivating for an inch..so I guess that's the new SECS until morale improves. 

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That model has been horrific lately…but whatever. 

Funny, it absolutely nailed 12-2 in my area. I really didn't pay too much attention to other areas 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your words pops. 

That’s right. I am your daddy. 

[CoastalWx]

Will is right in that it won’t take much to get a nice 5 to 8 fluff job. It’s still mild water to the south so move that moisture north a little bit and you’re in the game. However, we’ve also seen these fast flow set ups go to shit as we get inside 72 hours so that’s always on my mind. This is different than the inevitable north ticks on some guidance from a short wave coming out of the Deep South.

[Damage In Tolland]

Plan on 3-5” 90 South and 2-4” north and you’ll know finals 

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Banner start for you. Stowe is a magical place

It truly is around a once a generation start based on the 70+ years of Mansfield stake data.

It’s December 11th.  It feels and looks like February.