December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it’s def going to be a struggle to amplify this. There’s enough room to get us with a decent event but not by much. You really want to see those TPV heights relax a little north of us which allows the shortwave/vort energy to swing around the base a little easier…but it’s not an easy task. 

As usual..we can’t seem to win. Sometimes we want the PV to get involved, now it does and it’s hurting us…the 80’s are certainly back. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A Two week prog.  Really? 

I'd say 1/3 of the GEFS members keep us below freezing on Christmas .. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A Two week prog.  Really? 

Jfc can I troll him in peace?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All I was looking for was for it to not be flat.. 

 

Big hit for recent times here would be 6"+ for many in CT verbatim.. The red flag was if it was not amped , so we are good, that's all we can use the NAM for.  If the AMP happy NAM can't show a hit then we were in trouble IMO.. 

Gotcha. Thanks for explaining. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 We might not get any snow…walk before  you run. 

The snow is a lock 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jfc can I troll him in peace?

Sure you can…Carry on . 

[Damage In Tolland]

I was asking about next week not Xmas 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The snow is a lock 

Ok pal…I appreciate the optimism. 

[tamarack]

All snow here, mostly tiny flakes - 2.5" from 0.26" LE.  Broom snow, except for the plow pile I needed to shovel so the letter carrier can access our mailbox.  (The pile is on the maintained road but the smaller truck with only one drive axle can't back up the slope.  Wish they would run the 2-axle driver.)  8" at the stake.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok pal…I appreciate the optimism. 

I’ve been feeling this one coming . Just an old school recognition of setup 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve been feeling this one coming . Just an old school recognition of setup 

I hope you’re right. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I'd say 1/3 of the GEFS members keep us below freezing on Christmas .. 

Actually,  just hoping that N Maine stays cold, good chance we can take a Xmas break sledding trip if that happens this year. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

ICON is no help. Swing and a miss 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

ICON is no help. Swing and a miss 

Bumped north but its more like the 18z gfs from yesterday .. 

[weathafella]

When has ICON ever been a “help”?   I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Bumped north but its more like the 18z gfs from yesterday .. 

looks like noise IMO. Not nearly enough for much of anything interesting. Some very light snow SOp

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

When has ICON ever been a “help”?   I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

Those have been steadily trending in the wrong direction for most of the last 24 hours 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

When has ICON ever been a “help”?   I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

I dont get the whole ICON obsession lately? If it showed a blizzard, I’d still trash that thing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When has ICON ever been a “help”?   I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I dont get the whole ICON obsession lately? If it showed a blizzard, I’d still trash that thing. 

It's an ensemble member.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When has ICON ever been a “help”?   I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

Problem is both AI models have been slowly trending to a non event.. After both showing a moderate hit yesterday.. Another few ticks and they will look like the 6z gfs .. Really would like to see GFS make a good move towards EURO multiple runs in a row

[brooklynwx99]

RGEM looking good. TPV better oriented

[alex]

Something more for Torch to poop at. Looked like it was going to clear out and it’s been dumping instead. Stake up to 1 foot

[ORH_wxman]

Rgem def improved. Need a little more for up here but that was a nice hit for SE areas/Cape. 

[dryslot]

The RGEM has been garbage, Been way to cold for starters, Just saying so far this winter up here, I'm still looking for my 3.6" it had for yesterday.

[dendrite]

Yeah RGEM looks a little euroesque.

[dryslot]

JMA must have a blizzard by now, May have to pull the herpes model out of mothballs as well, 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs looks a bit better through 60. Let’s see if it translates to anything 

[Typhoon Tip]

Accounting for the typical NAM biases at this range this is largely a non-event.  I'm waiting on the Euro but with all the pieces firmly now inside the denser/more physically realized sounding inputs, this hasn't trended favorable.   Probably was time to move on earlier but in deference to desperation ( lol ).  

 

Anyway, the next possible notoriety in the pipeline is possible historic warmth during the week of Xmas.

I know ... I know, not a notoriety some would incline to marvel.  But, it is what it is.  Unfortunately for the winter/snow/Currier&Ives settings enthusiasts, the following is more coherent than not. 

The indexes signal a warm period.  This is suggested numerically, but is definitely than supported when noting the idiosyncrasies of the spatial layouts coming from the different clusters that has been emerging over the last couple of day's worth of cycles   They've all been incrementally retrograding the -WPO ridge W, across the N. Pac.  Meanwhile stopping/signaling any emerging positive non-hydrostatitc hgt anomalies amid the EPO domain region.  Meanwhile, the PNA slipping negative through Jan 1.  So with +EPO/-PNA, this does correlate well with a Pac NW River-type circulation mode, which then teleconnects downstream with the SE ridge response.  This is uneasy, as we've been seeing this feature there - albeit suppress and compressed - despite the current cold pattern. When that compression relaxes in lieu of the above, that sort of implies a carte blanche in latitude with the SE aspect.     

I wouldn't get to blown away by amplitude for now.  Although ... I must admit, I'm fighting the impression that warmth is like .. in a state of always being spring-loaded.  When the cold relaxes, go the other way above "Climate anomalies" more frequently than we used to.  That's also lurking in there.   We'll see

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

JMA must have a blizzard by now, May have to pull the herpes model out of mothballs as well, 

nahhh otherwise Metfan would have spammed us with 8000 images from the JMA by now

[ORH_wxman]

Don’t think it will be enough on GFS but def a good trend.