December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Believe when you see it.  It’ll mute big time. That ain’t happening. 

The long range ensembles aren’t pretty, but, much like the “epic” winter patterns we’ve had at LR that didn’t materialize, show me the torch inside D7 and then I’ll believe. Of course, it being timed for Christmas with precision should give us all pause.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta stop saying these things with your BY in mind only. It looked pretty decent for a lot of us. 

Most of us do that. Not like I get pumped for a CT special.

[weatherwiz]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later.  Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

I think this goes to show that even ensembles have their biases and limitations. At that range, it's all we really have but these patterns we have been in, sometimes smoothing and just averaging isn't really going to tell the true story. But at that range...nothing else we can really do or utilize so just have to roll with it and proceed with caution. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The long range ensembles aren’t pretty, but, much like the “epic” winter patterns we’ve had at LR that didn’t materialize, show me the torch inside D7 and then I’ll believe. Of course, it being timed for Christmas with precision should give us all pause.  

The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles.  Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gotta stop saying these things with your BY in mind only. It looked pretty decent for a lot of us. 

looks great 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When you have summer heat ridge heights near the winter solstice, I'm guessing it's hard to wash that out even with other ensemble members. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html 

appears really only 1 member supports  ... P026

But ..whatever.  That thing has about as much chance verifying as any given D13 bomb does.  Basically none

[CoastalWx]

I think the best thing about December ending on the 18th, is all these idiotic twitter Mets can eat shit.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most of us do that. Not like I get pumped for a CT special.

Well we had Will and Ryan say it looked decent…so then they ousted the precip shield and it was ok.  But whatever. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the best thing about December ending on the 18th, is all these idiotic twitter Mets can eat shit.

SO TRUE! This isn't long range anymore, now in medium range with the torch.. All this BS with the coldest air on the globe, December to remember... How's this look for cold ? 7 day anomaly over the US Dec 17-24..

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html 

appears really only 1 member supports  ... P026

But ..whatever.  That thing has about as much chance verifying as any given D13 bomb does.  Basically none

That’s 00z

Here’s 12z

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

SO TRUE! All this BS with the coldest air on the globe. How's this look for cold ? 7 day anomaly over the US Dec 17-24..

I was holding out hope, but I’ve seen enough. I’m so disappointed. Can’t believe the boning yet again. 

[CT Rain]

591 dam on Christmas is the perfect icing on the cake of a disastrous stretch. 

I'm skiing out west in mid-January so might as well just give up at this point and wear speedos for Santa and return the cold to the Rockies.

[CT Rain]

I posted this forecast discussion on YouTube about tomorrow and Sunday in case anyone's interested. 

 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

591 dam on Christmas is the perfect icing on the cake of a disastrous stretch. 

I'm skiing out west in mid-January so might as well just give up at this point and wear speedos for Santa and return the cold to the Rockies.

Absolutely no icing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

SO TRUE! This isn't long range anymore, now in medium range with the torch.. All this BS with the coldest air on the globe, December to remember... How's this look for cold ? 7 day anomaly over the US Dec 17-24..

We’ve seen that all fall and winter and not once has it verified. It won’t this time either . At least not like that 

[weatherwiz]

The good news is any ridging that period should be short-lived and looks like the pattern is re-loading as well. Maybe in some way this will help set things up more favorably moving into January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well we had Will and Ryan say it looked decent…so then they ousted the precip shield and it was ok.  But whatever. 

I didn't even look. I'm not cancelling the threat...just speaking theoretically.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen that all fall and winter and not once has it verified. It won’t this time either . At least not like that 

ACATT

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

ACATT

Yeah, is that you Steve?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

ACATT

Just not seeing this end to winter these guys calling for . I mean it never really began here .. but you get the idea 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just not seeing this end to winter these guys calling for . I mean it never really began here .. but you get the idea 

I think there will be a break, and perhaps a protracted one at that, but I don't see an early end to winter.

[weatherwiz]

We were bound to get some ridging and warmer temperatures at some point. That doesn't mean winter is done or winter is over. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there will be a break, and perhaps a protracted one at that, but I don't see an early end to winter.

If people are upset with the pattern and how things have done so far then they should be hoping for this break IMO. If this pattern sucks as some say...well the best way to get out of that is to break it and thats what we would be doing towards the end of the month. But I don't see anything signaling we flip to prolonged riding. But...I will say, I don't think it can totally be tossed out. Let's say the Arctic becomes unfavorable and we get a stronger PV that contracts...we open the flood gates for the jet to retract northward and get a milder, zonal flow across the country. Not saying that happens but it was a concern I had a few months back based on how the PAC had looked.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there will be a break, and perhaps a protracted one at that, but I don't see an early end to winter.

No sense harping on it or complaining. Sitting on a T for the season .  I’m just glad I called for and expected another subpar and shitty snowfall winter . Just didn’t expect a goose egg in Dec .

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen that all fall and winter and not once has it verified. It won’t this time either . At least not like that 

Well first off, the beginning of the warming isn't in the long range.  It's Day 7-9 so that has more legs verifying, if you look close, the torch is more south central US, unless we get a cutter of course, then we get into the warm sector.  I'm still holding out some hope for Christmas week for a well timed cold with an anchored High Pressure and low staying south of us, instead of a raging cutter.. 

[Arnold214]

20 years ago today...a day that will live in infamy for weather weenies in SNE! I'll never forget it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If people are upset with the pattern and how things have done so far then they should be hoping for this break IMO. If this pattern sucks as some say...well the best way to get out of that is to break it and thats what we would be doing towards the end of the month. But I don't see anything signaling we flip to prolonged riding. But...I will say, I don't think it can totally be tossed out. Let's say the Arctic becomes unfavorable and we get a stronger PV that contracts...we open the flood gates for the jet to retract northward and get a milder, zonal flow across the country. Not saying that happens but it was a concern I had a few months back based on how the PAC had looked.

I don't think we are there yet.....examples have been mentioned citing great months of December that hadn't even really gotten started yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No sense harping on it or complaining. Sitting on a T for the season .  I’m just glad I called for and expected another subpar and shitty snowfall winter . Just didn’t expect a goose egg in Dec .

It's too early to cash in your advance defense mechanism salvage.

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was holding out hope, but I’ve seen enough. I’m so disappointed. Can’t believe the boning yet again. 

Funny thing is, it’s exactly normal..to a hair above for a good chunk of the area on that prog. So we’d escape the brunt of that. 

[H2Otown_WX]

I smell a rat...