December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Winter storm warnings from Roanoke to Williamsburg…can’t make it up.

Some of those spots will have my normal December snowfall between these two storms. I mean you just have to laugh. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of those spots will have my normal December snowfall between these two storms. I mean you just have to laugh. 

Yep. We’ve seen it before. I wouldn’t mind a 60F Christmas Day. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Every single modeled torch going back to October has muted or vanished. Gotta figure that happens again Xmas 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every single modeled torch going back to October has muted or vanished. Gotta figure that happens again Xmas 

If we'll have bare ground it might as well be 60F on 12/24. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

So snow to our south(way to our south), and snow to our north, and snow to our west, and snow to our east out at sea,…is the new paradigm?   Ya…that’s just called bad fortune imo. 

He is speaking of the faster flow in general, which has interfered with phasing attempts and sustained PNA ridges...this promotes predominately inland and suppressed tracks. I def. think there is also some bad luck involved...but a bit of both IMO. Perfect shit storm.

[Kitz Craver]

That 0z EURO is days and days in NNE. PF is absolutely loving life

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Something could pop near the 15th I suppose. 00z gfs has a snowstorm. Euro has a clipper on the 14th. No real concrete signal. 

 

24 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Skynet with a robust little snowstorm early next week.

 

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s a chance. But it really has to be timed right. 

I know I went out on a limb with the mid-month call, but I still think something should pop in that timeframe prior to any warm up. I'm not talking about a blizzard...just a plowable event for a good portion of the area.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

I know I went out on a limb with the mid-month call, but I still think something should pop in that timeframe prior to any warm up. I'm not talking about a blizzard...just a plowable event for a good portion of the area.

I’m pretty much at the “hallelujah holy shit, where’s the Tylenol..” point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m pretty much at the “hallelujah holy shit, where’s the Tylenol..” point. 

We're gonna have to get Tip's jet to slow down for you to find the Tylenol.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're gonna have to get Tip's jet to slow down for you to find the Tylenol.

Hopefully 6z terminator and 00z gfs have a clue. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

If we'll have bare ground it might as well be 60F on 12/24. 

As painful and snowless as this winter has been and continues to look like it will be for now , I’d still prefer cold and dry over that on Xmas Eve 

[CoastalWx]

Terminator ensembles have a signal too. Feel a little better. 

[Heisy]

6z euro Ai strengthens a wave at day 6.

The 6z euro OP and EPS trended towards digging that same wave farther S.

Can also see the better ridge position out west on 6z EPS

Something to keep an eye on






.

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

If we'll have bare ground it might as well be 60F on 12/24. 

You bite your tongue!!!! Lol

Hopefully we'll have something that finally covers the ground. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z euro Ai strengthens a wave at day 6.

The 6z euro OP and EPS trended towards digging that same wave farther S.

Can also see the better ridge position out west on 6z EPS

Something to keep an eye on






.

6z euro op has the s/w way too far north. That needs to be further south and dig. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As painful and snowless as this winter has been and continues to look like it will be for now , I’d still prefer cold and dry over that on Xmas Eve 

Yep, at least you get frozen ponds.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Terminator ensembles have a signal too. Feel a little better. 

Is that the AI?

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As painful and snowless as this winter has been and continues to look like it will be for now , I’d still prefer cold and dry over that on Xmas Eve 

If it's not going to snow either way, I'd prefer it warm up latter December, in order to avoid parting ways with my seasonal.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is that the AI?

Yeah lol

[dendrite]

55 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Squalls Christmas morning?  White Christmas?

Windex in the stocking but not the snow kind

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah lol

Southeast ridge and it's army of MC MJO phases...."I'll be back".

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Southeast ridge and it's army of MC MJO phases...."I'll be back".

T-800 on the CFS looks good

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As painful and snowless as this winter has been and continues to look like it will be for now , I’d still prefer cold and dry over that on Xmas Eve 

12/8 and you are already a broken, limp weenie.

If places further south hadn’t gotten snow yet, I don’t think we’d be seeing posts like this. I can kinda relate though as I start going on tilt if cold air is coming and I have bare ground while you guys just got dumped on.

[alex]

 Nasty squalls this morning 

 

 

[dendrite]

I always love and appreciate a well timed upslope post. 

[jbenedet]

Pretty remarkable differences in look and feel from PSM down to eastern LI.

snow blowers and ice melt vs green grass and leaf blowers.

Traveling 150 miles looks and feels more like 600. 

It’s November to the south, early January to the north. 

For my location, it means winter’s grip, currently, isn’t that strong at all—warm sectors will not be strongly defended against…

The referenced map is more than just what the last storm brought. There’s a completely different seasonal vibe north/south of that line.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12/8 and you are already a broken, limp weenie.

If places further south hadn’t gotten snow yet, I don’t think we’d be seeing posts like this. I can kinda relate though as I start going on tilt if cold air is coming and I have bare ground while you guys just got dumped on.

Just very frustrated and wx depressed especially missing snow last week by 3 miles . Halfway thru Dec. Not whining . Just depressed 

[Spanks45]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro op has the s/w way too far north. That needs to be further south and dig. 

It seems like for the past 4 years this has been the theme...at what point is it bad luck vs the new norm? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

41 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z euro Ai strengthens a wave at day 6.

The 6z euro OP and EPS trended towards digging that same wave farther S.

Can also see the better ridge position out west on 6z EPS

Something to keep an eye on






.

That AIFS and its ensemble is the weeniest model of all time. Should be taken to the wood shed, that model and its ensembles think we have 2 feet of snow on the ground region wide. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro was a nice trend for next weekend. Still have that western ridge problem of needing to be a bit more amplitude. There’s time to trend it…really want to see shortwave digging more which is why you want that ridge a little more amped.