December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s still there, just not a blizzard on the OP run like 18z…more of a high end advisory or low end warning look on 06z. I’d like to see a bit more amped western ridge to dig this thing more but the system is pretty evident on guidance. 

 

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m seeing that as well. We take.

Yup…I feel it’s better to see this than some bomb at 6-7 Days that we know will be all over the map, driving folks nuts. A good signal is what we want at this lead….the eventual system will emerge as we close in.  

[Chrisrotary12]

So much for today’s wintry appeal.

[WinterWolf]

What are you confused about Kev? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What are you confused about Kev? 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yes sir.  

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What are you confused about Kev? 

I’ll reiterate again. When someone clicks confused on a post .. it means the person that typed the post is confused not the person that chose the confused emoji. They’re letting you know that you were confused on your post 

[Kitz Craver]

Nice signal boys, let’s go. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll reiterate again. When someone clicks confused on a post .. it means the person that typed the post is confused not the person that chose the confused emoji. They’re letting you know that you were confused on your post 

I know that my friend…I did that on purpose…because you said I was confused. My post was not confused. The signal is there…..and seems to be growing stronger.  All we need to see at this lead. 

[ineedsnow]

Maybe we can switch it up a bit and get a tropical system on Christmas 

[MJO812]

Hopefully the coasties score soon. Sad to see DC get snow before Philly NYC and Boston.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Maybe we can switch it up a bit and get a tropical system on Christmas 

It’s quite incredible the consistency of the Grinch Storm. All of the chaos and unpredictability that is meteorology and you can without hyperbole, statistically lock in a cutter around the Christmas holiday is absolutely mind-bending.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s quite incredible the consistency of the Grinch Storm. All of the chaos and unpredictability that is meteorology and you can without hyperbole, statistically lock in a cutter around the Christmas holiday is absolutely mind-bending.

I’m gonna go out on a limb here, and say I don’t think that happens this year….just my gut feeling. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m gonna go out on a limb here, and say I don’t think that happens this year….just my gut feeling. 

Imagine being on the other side of said storm, knowing every Christmas holiday you were going to get a blizzard. Oh how glorious that would be. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Imagine being on the other side of said storm, knowing every Christmas holiday you were going to get a blizzard. Oh how glorious that would be. 

For sure.  

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s quite incredible the consistency of the Grinch Storm. All of the chaos and unpredictability that is meteorology and you can without hyperbole, statistically lock in a cutter around the Christmas holiday is absolutely mind-bending.

Yeah, but I also feel like that timeline is expanding. Like getting a cutter on the 18th and 19th doesn’t really mean a grinch storm. Getting one on the 24th sure does.
 

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, but I also feel like that timeline is expanding. Like getting a cutter on the 18th and 19th doesn’t really mean a grinch storm. Getting one on the 24th sure does.
 

Alright, I get that, but I think 20th on with a nice pack intact is pretty grinchy 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Alright, I get that, but I think 20th on with a nice pack intact is pretty grinchy 

It is. December also is a month for cutters. Deeper into winter while they still occur, they are less frequent. Unfortunately Kevin thinks it’s a winter month when it really isn’t a deep winter month, especially first half. 

[DavisStraight]

The worst was 2007 when we had a great pack and we got a warm pouring rain the 24th into Christmas and wiped out what would have been a great start to winter.

[Torch Tiger]

Wolfie said its better therr are no bombs to track. Lol already tailgating?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wolfie said its better therr are no bombs to track. Lol already tailgating?

I didn’t say that…I said it’s better that the signal is there and growing, than have some bomb that will come and go at this lead. Just like 18z GFS yesterday…it was gone next run.  It’s a timeframe of interest is the point, where tele’s and the long wave pattern seem to be converging.  I feel it better this at 6-7 days away,  the threat will emerge/re-emerge. 
 

But nice try…you are one spooning mofo. Sad. 

[Modfan2]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I didn’t say that…I said it’s better that the signal is there and growing, than have some bomb that will come and go at this lead. Just like 18z GFS yesterday…it was gone next run.  It’s a timeframe of interest is the point, where tele’s and the long wave pattern seem to be converging.  I feel it better this at 6-7 days away,  the threat will emerge/re-emerge. 
 

But nice try…you are one spooning mofo. Sad. 

Models have been pretty inconsistent outside of 3-4 days; let’s see how things progress this week. My concern is at some point (at least Pike South) we are going to lose the consistent normal to below normal temps we have had the last 3-4 weeks

[Lava Rock]

I’m gonna go out on a limb here, and say I don’t think that happens this year….just my gut feeling. 

We escaped last year, but I'm not feeling good about this year

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I didn’t say that…I said it’s better that the signal is there and growing, than have some bomb that will come and go at this lead. Just like 18z GFS yesterday…it was gone next run.  It’s a timeframe of interest is the point, where tele’s and the long wave pattern seem to be converging.  I feel it better this at 6-7 days away,  the threat will emerge/re-emerge. 
 

But nice try…you are one spooning mofo. Sad. 

This is why I blocked TT. It's been a better place without his nonsense. Poor kid. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This is why I blocked TT. It's been a better place without his nonsense. Poor kid. 

 

Not very nice to say about Tyohoon Tip 

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Models have been pretty inconsistent outside of 3-4 days; let’s see how things progress this week. My concern is at some point (at least Pike South) we are going to lose the consistent normal to below normal temps we have had the last 3-4 weeks

And that’s totally my point…don’t need a bomb on op runs at 6-7 days away…sure, it’s fun to see, but anybody who’s been here for a while, knows that will come and go at that lead.  Whatever is there will re-emerge soon. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Maybe we can switch it up a bit and get a tropical system on Christmas 

Wouldn’t that transfer?

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wouldn’t that transfer?

I mean 384 hrs/16 days out…it’s fantasy/clown, but ya, thats a stout Hi pressure to the north there, 1035mb. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean 384 hrs/16 days out…it’s fantasy/clown, but ya, thats a stout Hi pressure to the north there, 1035mb. 

Yes. If we are going to have the negative fantasies, then we should pair them with the positive fantasies.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Yes. If we are going to have the negative fantasies, then we should pair them with the positive fantasies.

100%. 

[kdxken]

34° feels like 60°