December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone is definitely getting a paste job. It’s close to Kevin and Ray. 

Yeah I think Kevin over to me is like 50/50 right now for pretty good paste job (even if some mix gets in there eventually). Ray’s extra latitude makes him a little better odds. Obviously like ORH (esp northern half of county) up into monads are looking really good if we’re talking SNE zones. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Not for my soundings unless the .2 at 1000 mb counts. Total paste job. Hopefully 6z Euro is correct.  Humpy my name is Thumpy. 

Those soundings have terrible vertical resolution. It’s warm for you.  Humpy for Hubby. 

[FXWX]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just funny how it’s sort of similar though. Oh well. Would be nice to catch a break for once. 

I do think breaks are coming but there are always going to be MBY screw jobs.  And the reality is eastern Mass and the I-95 corridor from sw CT north is always chancy even in a good pattern....

[WinterWolf]

The same eyor’s are back. As we knew they would be. The take away as John(FXWX) said…it’s an active wintry looking pattern for December.  And that’s a good thing.  Can’t ask for much else on 11/28.  We take and appreciate. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think Kevin over to me is like 50/50 right now for pretty good paste job (even if some mix gets in there eventually). Ray’s extra latitude makes him a little better odds. Obviously like ORH (esp northern half of county) up into monads are looking really good if we’re talking SNE zones. 

Just can’t afford much north ticks. But definitely could be a more widespread paster than we’ve seen recently. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those soundings have terrible vertical resolution. It’s warm for you.  Humpy for Hubby. 

Wut?  I see isothermic dump showme your better vertical resolution 6 z Euro. Deets!!!

 

[ORH_wxman]

IF you're looking for early trends today on model guidance...if you want colder, the first ingredient is get that initial cold push on Monday stronger....if we can drive that -10C 850 line down toward the south coast 12z-18z Monday, then you are looking at a colder profile. But if it gets hung up in CNE, you're gonna see that marginal airmass issue quickly develop on the coastal plain. 

[George001]

55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This storm features several of the features we’ve seen a bunch of the last 4-5 years. Marginal airmass and retreating or non existent high pressure.

So people saying this season is “different” are wrong, at least so far. It’s literally the same bullshit we’ve seen for years 

Be patient, things will be different this year. That was in the past.

[UnitedWx]

38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This storm blows for most people south of the pike. I’m not insufferable, lots of delusion in this thread.

Like I said, enjoy the rain. You won’t be snowing right along with eastern Mass 

Trying to decide while  if this is butt hurt over the last several years... or trying some DIR reverse psych

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just can’t afford much north ticks. But definitely could be a more widespread paster than we’ve seen recently. 

Shocker. Models have been pretty inconsistent around 5-7 days, and then the real picture gets painted inside of 5 days. Best advice e for the winter is not to pin any hopes until we are in the 3-4 day range. Not expecting much here in the valley, maybe 1-2” then rain

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The same eyor’s are back. As we knew they would be. The take away as John(FXWX) said…it’s an active wintry looking pattern for December.  And that’s a good thing.  Can’t ask for much else on 11/28.  We take and appreciate. 

We don't rejoice until seeing the landscape turn wintry white after the awful decade this has been, but I 1000% prefer tracking a tangible storm and imminent BN temp pattern over talking about long range potential. Remember it was just a few days ago some looked at the models and saw a warm first week of Dec. Can't take anything for granted. We gotta produce when the windows for action open. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wut?  I see isothermic dump showme your better vertical resolution 6 z Euro. Deets!!!

Well congrats on 12-16 then. Send pics.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

IF you're looking for early trends today on model guidance...if you want colder, the first ingredient is get that initial cold push on Monday stronger....if we can drive that -10C 850 line down toward the south coast 12z-18z Monday, then you are looking at a colder profile. But if it gets hung up in CNE, you're gonna see that marginal airmass issue quickly develop on the coastal plain. 

They were trying to show that yesterday but reverted a bit. Not a great sign when the flow is srly at 925 ahead of a low. Would be nice to get the NW-N-NE-E deal as it approaches. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well congrats on 12-16 then. Send pics.

See show us the deets. Back your statement up is all ask not some weak sardonic Masshole remark 

[George001]

45 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This storm blows for most people south of the pike. I’m not insufferable, lots of delusion in this thread.

Like I said, enjoy the rain. You won’t be snowing right along with eastern Mass 

Why can’t you be happy for the north?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

See show us the deets. Back your statement up is all ask not some weak sardonic Masshole remark 

I’ve stated it multiple times. It’s mild in the boundary layer even as of now for you. Maybe you start as some paste, and end as snow, but that’s a tough look even for you. Latitude hurts. It’s not being a debbie, it’s putting on a forecaster hat and looking at reality. Maybe it goes back to the 12z run yesterday and changes things. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We don't rejoice until seeing the landscape turn wintry white after the awful decade this has been, but I 1000% prefer tracking a tangible storm and imminent BN temp pattern over talking about long range potential. Remember it was just a few days ago some looked at the models and saw a warm first week of Dec. Can't take anything for granted. We gotta produce when the windows for action open. 

Very active month. Some hits Some not. All we can ask for is the chances.  Temps are there hopefully the tracks are good.  Peeps should know their climo.  Anything more than 4 inches here the next 15 days is a bonus

[weatherwiz]

One big difference too between this year (at this time) compared to the last several years is water temperatures off the coast aren't as warm. Maybe not a huge deal now, but if we keep getting these pushes of colder air, this could be something to help drive the baroclinic zone a bit farther south and east than we've seen lately. Maybe instead of seeing lows go bonkers inland in the southeast or mid-Atlantic that happens farther east either along or just off the coast.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve stated it multiple times. It’s mild in the boundary layer even as of now for you. Maybe you start as some paste, and end as snow, but that’s a tough look even for you. Latitude hurts. It’s not being a debbie, it’s putting on a forecaster hat and looking at reality. Maybe it goes back to the 12z run yesterday and changes things. 

Please show us why you say the vertical resolution on skewts published by professional  forecasters is wrong. You can't just say that without proof. 

[Brewbeer]

forecasts are opinions

if everyone's opinion was the same, this forum wouldn't be worth reading

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Please show us why you say the vertical resolution on skewts published by professional  forecasters is wrong. You can't just say that without proof. 

The euro soundings available from vendors don’t have the vertical resolution that you get from something like gfs/nam/hrrr. It’s probably because of how much data is available, but we’ve talked about that on here. I never look at them. Vendors may try to smooth them out but I’m almost positive that is the case. 
 

Also, is that your exact location? Because that is zoomed out and looks like it’s N and W of your location.

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

Why can’t you be happy for the north?

Lolol.. You are so passive aggressive. It's too funny. I think we'll have a lot of chances throughout December. If this doesn't pan out, okay then we move to the next one. Come at least for Southern New England. But are we out of it, absolutely not

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Brewbeer said:

forecasts are opinions

if everyone's opinion was the same, this forum won't be worth reading

Tough when we change our opinions every 6 hours ha

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro soundings available from vendors don’t have the vertical resolution that you get from something like gfs/nam/hrrr. It’s probably because of how much data is available, but we’ve talked about that on here. I never look at them. Vendors may try to smooth them out but I’m almost positive that is the case. 
 

Also, is that your exact location? Because that is zoomed out and looks like it’s N and W of your location.

You know skewts use closest data points not exact location right 

[CoastalWx]

Poo poo

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Fight , fight , fight 

[Brewbeer]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tough when we change our opinions every 6 hours ha

I would expect a well respected met to update their forecast base on the latest data 

[CoastalWx]

I haven’t seen changing opinions on this. Changing model scenarios, sure. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Poo poo

 

Too far sw 

[dendrite]

The euro and its minions have been slowly trending toward consensus anyway like they have many times the past few years. 4 days is still eternity for details though. I know many want results, but at least there’s something to track south of the Greens and Whites. We seasonally progress.