December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Glad we were able to cash in before this upcoming boring stretch of weather 

[[email protected]]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

20 / 8 off a low of 13.  Clear till around noon.  Near or sub freezing today (coldest of the next 7 days).  Some flurries or snow showers later to maybe whiten up the ground re coat the snow.  A tinge warmer on Tue to / above freexing low-mid 30.s  Moderation to and above normal Wed (low - mid 40s)  Near 50 / Thu with rain developing overnighg into a warmest of the week Fri (50s) and potentially near one inch of rain to melt the snow cover.  Looks like a brief shot of colder on this coming Saturday in an overall warmer than normal period through Christmas day.   Ridge center a bit west keeping the strongest warmth to our south and west but overall near normal the period after christmas to the end of the month with the very cold to the north and warmth just to the south sandwiching the area and a storm threat to close out the period between 30 - 31.

 

Another rainy New Years Eve!

[bluewave]

Mid-December has been prime time for snow across the region since 2011.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 12-01 to 12-10 snowfall 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-10	0.1	0
2024-12-10	T	0
2023-12-10	T	0
2022-12-10	T	0
2021-12-10	T	0
2020-12-10	0.5	0
2019-12-10	2.5	0
2018-12-10	T	0
2017-12-10	4.3	0
2016-12-10	T	0
2015-12-10	0.0	0
2014-12-10	0.1	0
2013-12-10	3.1	0
2012-12-10	0.0	0
2011-12-10	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 12-01 to 12-10 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-10	T	0
2024-12-10	T	0
2023-12-10	T	0
2022-12-10	0.0	0
2021-12-10	T	0
2020-12-10	T	0
2019-12-10	1.9	0
2018-12-10	T	0
2017-12-10	1.3	0
2016-12-10	0.0	0
2015-12-10	0.0	0
2014-12-10	0.1	0
2013-12-10	1.6	0
2012-12-10	0.0	0
2011-12-10	T	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 12-11 to 12-20 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-20	4.1	6
2024-12-20	0.3	0
2023-12-20	0.0	0
2022-12-20	0.1	0
2021-12-20	0.0	0
2020-12-20	11.4	0
2019-12-20	1.7	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	2.8	0
2016-12-20	3.4	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	0.2	0
2013-12-20	6.3	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 12-11 to 12-20 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-20	5.8	6
2024-12-20	T	0
2023-12-20	0.0	0
2022-12-20	0.4	0
2021-12-20	0.0	0
2020-12-20	7.5	0
2019-12-20	2.3	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	3.4	0
2016-12-20	3.2	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	0.3	0
2013-12-20	4.8	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 12-21 to 12-31 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-12-31	3.2	0
2023-12-31	0.0	0
2022-12-31	T	0
2021-12-31	0.1	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	0.0	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	0.6	0
2016-12-31	T	0
2015-12-31	0.3	0
2014-12-31	T	0
2013-12-31	T	0
2012-12-31	1.9	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 12-21 to 12-31 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-12-31	2.1	0
2023-12-31	0.0	0
2022-12-31	0.0	0
2021-12-31	0.3	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	0.0	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	1.3	0
2016-12-31	0.0	0
2015-12-31	T	0
2014-12-31	0.0	0
2013-12-31	1.7	0
2012-12-31	0.6	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Mid-December has been prime time for snow across the region since 2011.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 12-01 to 12-10 snowfall 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-10	0.1	0
2024-12-10	T	0
2023-12-10	T	0
2022-12-10	T	0
2021-12-10	T	0
2020-12-10	0.5	0
2019-12-10	2.5	0
2018-12-10	T	0
2017-12-10	4.3	0
2016-12-10	T	0
2015-12-10	0.0	0
2014-12-10	0.1	0
2013-12-10	3.1	0
2012-12-10	0.0	0
2011-12-10	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 12-01 to 12-10 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-10	T	0
2024-12-10	T	0
2023-12-10	T	0
2022-12-10	0.0	0
2021-12-10	T	0
2020-12-10	T	0
2019-12-10	1.9	0
2018-12-10	T	0
2017-12-10	1.3	0
2016-12-10	0.0	0
2015-12-10	0.0	0
2014-12-10	0.1	0
2013-12-10	1.6	0
2012-12-10	0.0	0
2011-12-10	T	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 12-11 to 12-20 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-20	4.1	6
2024-12-20	0.3	0
2023-12-20	0.0	0
2022-12-20	0.1	0
2021-12-20	0.0	0
2020-12-20	11.4	0
2019-12-20	1.7	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	2.8	0
2016-12-20	3.4	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	0.2	0
2013-12-20	6.3	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 12-11 to 12-20 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-20	5.8	6
2024-12-20	T	0
2023-12-20	0.0	0
2022-12-20	0.4	0
2021-12-20	0.0	0
2020-12-20	7.5	0
2019-12-20	2.3	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	3.4	0
2016-12-20	3.2	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	0.3	0
2013-12-20	4.8	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 12-21 to 12-31 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-12-31	3.2	0
2023-12-31	0.0	0
2022-12-31	T	0
2021-12-31	0.1	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	0.0	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	0.6	0
2016-12-31	T	0
2015-12-31	0.3	0
2014-12-31	T	0
2013-12-31	T	0
2012-12-31	1.9	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 12-21 to 12-31 snowfall
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-12-31	2.1	0
2023-12-31	0.0	0
2022-12-31	0.0	0
2021-12-31	0.3	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	0.0	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	1.3	0
2016-12-31	0.0	0
2015-12-31	T	0
2014-12-31	0.0	0
2013-12-31	1.7	0
2012-12-31	0.6	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

Great to have it during the lowest sun angle of the year too so we’re not losing much of it every day like in March. 

[SACRUS]

 

NWS Mt H

 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Glad we were able to cash in before this upcoming boring stretch of weather 

Looks like mild and dry throuhh end of the year. Large ridge over most of CONUS too. Doesn’t look like snow for anyone through end of the month 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Snow shower/flurries quickly pushing into PA

 

Cloudy here, but looks like they dry up as it moves east?

[North and West]

Another rainy New Years Eve!

All right, I’ll take the bait because we’re in a boring stretch.




.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Great to have it during the lowest sun angle of the year too so we’re not losing much of it every day like in March. 

It was just nice to finally see a widespread 4-8” clipper which used to be very common in the old days.

I wonder if we can find a way to sneak in a KU that rapidly deepens near the benchmark with some portion of the area going 12” before the end of the season?

My guess is that we will probably need at least one of these events for most spots from Newark out across Long Island to make it to closer to the long term average in the mid 20s for snowfall.

It would be nice to finally see a bounce back year after the repeated lower totals last 7 years and lack of KU events.

I have been looking at the La Niña December snowfall in more detail last few days to try to find where a cutoff may be for average to above average snowfall. Previously  used a 4” snowfall total for a rough approximation of a cutoff. Correcting for the Central Park under measurement they should be right at 4” and Newark is 4.2”. 

But all of the average to above snowfall seasons had 7.7”+in December like 2020, 2017, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2000, and 1995. The one exception was 2016. So it’s possible that the actual cutoff could be in the 4-7”range. 

It will be interesting to see how things work out the rest of the season. I am posting the Newark data below instead of NYC since they have a paid contract observer there. Even adding a bit to the NYC totals getting them closer to Newark shows the same relationship. 

15 most recent La Niña Decembers using RONI and Total Seasonal Snowfall at Newark

24-25….3.5”…..13.6”

22-23….0.1”……2.7”

21-22….0.1”……17.9”

20-21…..11.9”…45.7”

17-18…….7.7”….39.4”

16-17……3.4”….30.0”…..The one year the relationship didn’t work out

11-12……0.0…..8.8”

10-11…..24.5”…68.2”

08-09….8.3”….27.1”

07-08….3.9”….14.6”

05-06….11.0”….37.9”

00-01….14.9”….39.3”

99-00……T…….18.4”

98-99….1.2”…..12.8”

95-96….12.8”….78.4”

 

 

 

 

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

Another rainy New Years Eve!

You have posted this atleast 3 times already, we heard you the first 2 times. 

[[email protected]]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

You have posted this atleast 3 times already, we heard you the first 2 times. 

I will be right, about this.

[vegan_edible]

2 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

I will be right, about this

hopefully your weather predictions are as good as your grammatical skills 

[Nibor]

Cold grey wintery day in NYC.

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Cold grey wintery day in NYC.

Why I truly hate Manhattan…you are so out of touch with the natural world. Its awful. But I know thats why people love it.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Cloudy here, but looks like they dry up as it moves east?

Looks like it's making its way here anyway, just saw some flurries...

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

I will be right, about this

Why

[BxEngine]

Cant tell if its flurrying or just assholes who havent cleaned off their cars. 

[North and West]

hopefully your weather predictions are as good as your grammatical skills 

.

[Big Jims Videos]

12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Cant tell if its flurrying or just assholes who havent cleaned off their cars. 

It's going to be a week of stay aware and alert driving on the interstates and toll roads as we'll be dodging flying ice at 70 mph.

[[email protected]]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

hopefully your weather predictions are as good as your grammatical skills 

Thanks for letting me know to put an period at the end of that sentence.

[bluewave]

On 12/14/2025 at 10:55 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I know it's rare in this setup, but any chance the storm does not cut west of us? Or transfers to something developing off the coast?

Still looks like the classic cutter track. I shoveled out around my storm drains yesterday. These rain events which follow snow within a few days tend to at least cause street flooding if the storm drains still have snow over them. 
 

 

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Cold grey wintery day in NYC.

 

Truly a horrid place for snow

[BxEngine]

Is that really a cutter? It doesnt even make it into the contintental US. Its just a northern stream storm a few hundred miles north of us. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Is that really a cutter? It doesnt even make it into the contintental US. It’s just a northern stream storm a few hundred miles north of us. 

Most of us on here describe lows which track to our west as a cutter. Sometimes they ride north of the Great Lakes traveling from west to east. Other times they start out near the Gulf or Southeastern States and lift up through the Eastern Lakes anywhere from Cleveland to Eastern PA into Canada. 

Either way parts of the region at least make into at least the 50s with mostly rain that can be heavy with a SE to SW flow.

The strongest cutter that I experienced since the 1990s was 11-11-95. A deep low rode north near the APPS  into Canada and a secondary developed just to our west. This delivered 70-75 mph gusts in Long Beach which the western half of town losing power for nearly 24hrs. 

The worst flood cutter I remember here was later in January 1996 with a deep snowpack. All the roads were like rivers in Long Beach as the giant snow piles on the side of the road blocked the storm drains.

The most recent damaging flood cutter upstate was 12-25-20. The 40” +record snow pack rapidly melted and lead to serious flash flooding with 1.50” of rain and landslides damaging the ski resorts. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another cold day. Temperatures will then moderate for Wednesday through Friday. Thursday and Friday could be mild days with the mercury approaching or reaching 50° in parts of the region. Rain is likely on Friday.

Behind the storm, the weekend will turn somewhat cooler. 

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +0.26 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.095 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.3° (4.8° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[jm1220]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of us on here describe lows which track to our west as a cutter. Sometimes they ride north of the Great Lakes traveling from west to east. Other times they start out near the Gulf or Southeastern States and lift up through the Eastern Lakes anywhere from Cleveland to Eastern PA into Canada. 

Either way parts of the region at least make into at least the 50s with mostly rain that can be heavy with a SE to SW flow.

The strongest cutter that I experienced since the 1990s was 11-11-95. A deep low rode north near the APPS  into Canada and a secondary developed just to our west. This delivered 70-75 mph gusts in Long Beach which the western half of town losing power for nearly 24hrs. 

The worst flood cutter I remember here was later in January 1996 with a deep snowpack. All the roads were like rivers in Long Beach as the giant snow piles on the side of the road blocked the storm drains.

The most recent damaging flood cutter upstate was 12-25-20. The 40” +record snow pack rapidly melted and lead to serious flash flooding with 1.50” of rain and landslides damaging the ski resorts. 

 

 

I remember that 11/1995 storm, it was wicked. It dropped a ton of heavy snow if I remember correctly west of us in the Appalachians.

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I remember that 11/1995 storm, it was wicked. It dropped a ton of heavy snow if I remember correctly west of us in the Appalachians.

18" at state college. Super heavy and wet and fell in about 8 hours

[Roger Smith]

Looks like Friday's frontal passage (timed for around 0900h EST) could lead to a few hail or snow showers with rapidly falling temperatures? It would be around 45F before the front goes through and low to mid 30s by afternoon in W-NW winds gusting to 35 or 40 mph. Lots of ups and downs in temperature trends now to end of the month, it looks likely to average near normal so the current large negative anomaly would be essentially cut in half (balanced by a zero anomaly for half a month). But it looks very cold near the end of the current GFS run by NYE-NYD. 

[Krs4Lfe]

54 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looks like Friday's frontal passage (timed for around 0900h EST) could lead to a few hail or snow showers with rapidly falling temperatures? It would be around 45F before the front goes through and low to mid 30s by afternoon in W-NW winds gusting to 35 or 40 mph. Lots of ups and downs in temperature trends now to end of the month, it looks likely to average near normal so the current large negative anomaly would be essentially cut in half (balanced by a zero anomaly for half a month). But it looks very cold near the end of the current GFS run by NYE-NYD. 

That west coast trough crashing in after Christmas will lead to that massive and near record warm ridge over central US to eventually move towards east coast. Hopefully it’s transient, but Central and south US will really torch Christmas week

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That west coast trough crashing in after Christmas will lead to that massive and near record warm ridge over central US to eventually move towards east coast. Hopefully it’s transient, but Central and south US will really torch Christmas week

Yeh guys keep talking about cold…I really see a lot of up and down