December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[psv88]

31 now and rain not too far away. Let’s hope we warm up a bit soon

[uofmiami]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

31.8⁰ DP 25 in Smithtown.  I'm well versed in the whole wind off the water/ raining when it gets here thing, but I'm wondering now if we shouldn't be looking out for a little freezing rain near the coast too.

Of course we will & after a few hours go above freezing. OKX will SPS us instead of the WWA.

[psv88]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

31.8⁰ DP 25 in Smithtown.  I'm well versed in the whole wind off the water/ raining when it gets here thing, but I'm wondering now if we shouldn't be looking out for a little freezing rain near the coast too.

Yup. Most of the island is below freezing. Maybe a special weather statement at the outset 

 

 

 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

My Grandfather was an ice man he would deliver ice to homes and businesses ( kinda like what Ralph and Alice had on the honeymooners they had an ice box ) long before refrigerators but anyways he would tell me stories of how the water between Manhattan and Jersey would freeze,,,,,,,it would freeze so solid that they had horses pulling wagons across from one side to the other,,,,,I wish I had some pictures,,,,,,anyway my Dad would tell me that he could remember from  when he was a young kid ( born 1930 )  that water being frozen from New York to Jersey,,,,,what a time and sight that must have been 

[rclab]

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

My Grandfather was an ice man he would deliver ice to homes and businesses ( kinda like what Ralph and Alice had on the honeymooners they had an ice box ) long before refrigerators but anyways he would tell me stories of how the water between Manhattan and Jersey would freeze,,,,,,,it would freeze so solid that they had horses pulling wagons across from one side to the other,,,,,I wish I had some pictures,,,,,,anyway my Dad would tell me that he could remember from  when he was a young kid ( born 1930 )  that water being frozen from New York to Jersey,,,,,what a time and sight that must have been 

I read that the severely cold 1917/18 winter produced such a freeze.i would have enjoyed listening to your grandfather and hearing how it was first hand. In the early to middle 50’s when I was in my single digits, sustained cold would result in broken ice flowing down the center of the narrows. (no bridge at that time) I guess it sourced from the southern extent of the frozen over Hudson River. As always …..

[sussexcountyobs]

Plow just came by and salted road. No precip. falling. 28.6F

[uofmiami]

WWA issued finally for coastal zones

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
437 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

CTZ010>012-NJZ006-NYZ072-074-075-078>081-176>179-290300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0014.251228T2200Z-251229T0300Z/
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern
Nassau-
437 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Light freezing rain or freezing drizzle expected. Total ice
  accumulations around a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Surface temperatures should rise above
  freezing by late this evening allowing any precip to change to
  plain rain.

 

[gravitylover]

I was looking forward to a sloppy frozen Bills game. Too bad it's raining so hard they splash when they hit the ground.

[sussexcountyobs]

Down to 28.2F No precip yet.

[NorthShoreWx]

Down to 30.7⁰ / DP 26⁰.  Precip will be spotty and light this evening, but probably icy.

[weatherpruf]

43 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

My Grandfather was an ice man he would deliver ice to homes and businesses ( kinda like what Ralph and Alice had on the honeymooners they had an ice box ) long before refrigerators but anyways he would tell me stories of how the water between Manhattan and Jersey would freeze,,,,,,,it would freeze so solid that they had horses pulling wagons across from one side to the other,,,,,I wish I had some pictures,,,,,,anyway my Dad would tell me that he could remember from  when he was a young kid ( born 1930 )  that water being frozen from New York to Jersey,,,,,what a time and sight that must have been 

a colleague had a photo of his grandfather standing on the ice next to the old orchard lighthouse, washed away by Sandy in 2012, and his great grandfather went out during the blizzard of 1888 and was never seen again.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27.2 and precip on the doorstep. 

[donsutherland1]

Light rain and some freezing rain is moving into the region. Areas north and west of New York City have the highest likelihood of seeing some freezing rain.

Tomorrow will see some additional showers. The temperature will likely reach the upper 40s to perhaps lower 50s before colder air moves in. It will also turn very windy with gusts reaching 40 mph to 50 mph at times.

The remainder of December will see cooler than normal days. Below normal temperatures will continue into at least the middle of the first week of January. Some flurries or snow showers are possible late on January 1 into January 2.

December 2025 is on course to finish with a maximum monthly temperature below 60° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +9.19 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.799 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (5.2° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

Yea that WWA is needed. Maybe a bit late idk. 

[Picard]

The bulk of it is heading to the north.  Other than drizzle, the bulk of tonight's main precip (which isn't much) will be over by 8-9 pm, barring any backfilling of the radar.  It will still be slick on untreated surfaces I'm sure.

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, Picard said:

The bulk of it is heading to the north.  Other than drizzle, the bulk of tonight's main precip (which isn't much) will be over by 8-9 pm, barring any backfilling of the radar.  It will still be slick on untreated surfaces I'm sure.

Good. Keep freezing rain away. There is nothing worse.

[ForestHillWx]

The snow has remained frozen to the trees since the storm; rather remarkable all things considered. 

We are at 27/25; freezing glaze incoming.