bluewave Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago While the week 2 forecasts have been running too cold from all the ensembles, the first week of January may be the coldest shift of them all so far. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: While the week 2 forecasts have been running too cold from all the ensembles, the first week of January may be the coldest shift of them all so far. New run Old run Looks like they have been useless or worse over the past 90 days. Basically the opposite pattern of the 11-15 means was realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Looks like they have been useless or worse over the past 90 days. Basically the opposite pattern of the 11-15 means was realized. Same with the GEFS and GEPS. I posted this in the main ENSO thread. In order to get really cold these days we need some kind of record warmth in the Arctic. If we can just get the storm track to shift south to a benchmark position in January, then maybe this can be our bounce back snowfall year which we have been hoping for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Talk about cold incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about cold incoming. There is an extreme cold pool over western Canada and all of Canada has deep snow cover. This cold pool will not modify anytime soon. Get some of that on a favorable trajectory over snow covered ground and it could get seriously cold around here as we move toward or through the first 10 days of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about cold incoming. Interesting look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies? We were supposed to close the shades until February. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Talk about cold incoming. Fun to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies? We were supposed to close the shades until February. Southern tier from the plains to the southeast is torching. Stronger than expected and retrogressive blocking saved the day for the norther tier from the northern plains east into New England and south to about the Mason Dixon line keeping us near normal or slightly below normal. Without that block some of that warmth would have easily spilled into our area. We got lucky, no Christmas torch this year. Longer range (yeah, I know longer range) is looking foreboding in terms of Arctic Cold. EURO going full bore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 43 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies? We were supposed to close the shades until February. Yea I was expecting +20 today not snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, MANDA said: Southern tier from the plains to the southeast is torching. Stronger than expected and retrogressive blocking saved the day for the norther tier from the northern plains east into New England and south to about the Mason Dixon line keeping us near normal or slightly below normal. Without that block some of that warmth would have easily spilled into our area. We got lucky, no Christmas torch this year. Longer range (yeah, I know longer range) is looking foreboding in terms of Arctic Cold. EURO going full bore. 19 in North Dakota while it's 71 in South Dakota is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 24 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: 19 in North Dakota while it's 71 in South Dakota is nuts If it wasn’t for the strong -NAO, then record ridge across the Southern Plains would have expanded closer to our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, cleetussnow said: What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies? We were supposed to close the shades until February. Stratospheric warming events happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: If it wasn’t for the strong -NAO, then record ridge across the Southern Plains would have expanded closer to our area. Warmth stayed S&W, no surprise. So much for the Scand block linking up with the SE ridge for a blowtorch over us as it transitioned to a -NAO. Got a quick warm shot the 18th & 19th, similar to late November instead. Looks like -5 departure from normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Warmth stayed S&W, no surprise. So much for the Scand block linking up with the SE ridge for a blowtorch over us as it transitioned to a -NAO. Got a quick warm shot the 18th & 19th, similar to late November instead. Looks like -5 departure from normal for the month. Why didn’t the block link up with the SE ridge this time @bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Why didn’t the block link up with the SE ridge this time @bluewave I think the -wpo didn't help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A weak system brought some light snow to the region. Snowfall amounts included: Armonk: 3.2" Bridgeport: Trace Islip: Trace Middletown: 5.0" New York City: Trace The snowfall in New York City was in line with historical data for systems with low temperatures above freezing. In New York City, only 25.6% of storms had seen measurable snowfall with a daily low of 33° or above with just 9.2% seeing 1" or more snowfall. Almost three-quarters (74.4%) of such events saw only a trace of snowfall. Today had a low temperature of 35°. 91.4% of snow events with a minimum temperature of 35° or above saw a trace of snow. Another system could bring precipitation on Friday into Saturday. This system could be a more substantial system with the potential for a plowable snowfall in the New York City region. No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter. Nevertheless, the closing days of December will likely be colder than normal. December 2025 will likely finish with a maximum monthly temperature below 60° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +12.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.312 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.0° (5.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 3 hours ago, cleetussnow said: What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies? We were supposed to close the shades until February. Let's not forget 7 years of rain on new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago Gfs has temps in the 20s for the ball drop in times square and then teens on NYD night in NYC and colder in the burbs Complete cave by the gfs to the euro . Very cold air to begin January with a big PNA ridge. Massive NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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