November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[dendrite]

Yeah let’s get a few SWFEs. Nice, low stress tracking with the wealth spread around. ineedsnow humping kuchie maps when we know it’ll be 10:1.

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For the first time in a long time, we got money in the bank up in Canada. I’ve also noticed some of those op  runs have a nice scooter high building in. I’ll take my chances.

You seem really optimistic and looking forward to winter this year. I wonder how long it’ll take to break you this season.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You seem really optimistic and looking forward to winter this year. I wonder how long it’ll take to break you this season.

It won’t take much. Winter is on a short leash this year.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It won’t take much. Winter is on a short leash this year.

We’re gonna end up like 2007 except shifted 80-100 miles north. We’ll be like NYC that December. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna end up like 2007 except shifted 80-100 miles north. We’ll be like NYC that December. 

I think we’d all get some popcorn ready and watch Ray light up this forum. 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah let’s get a few SWFEs. Nice, low stress tracking with the wealth spread around. ineedsnow humping kuchie maps when we know it’ll be 10:1.

As long as they involve a lot of ice . South of 90 does not do well with snow in those 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It won’t take much. Winter is on a short leash this year.

Very short window this year for wintry wx 

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very short window this year for wintry wx 

2-3 weeks then winter is over

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

In fact it would harm matters 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

2-3 weeks then winter is over

maybe for the mid-atlantic, which would kinda be on-par, but I'm far more optimistic around here.

[rimetree]

Gladly take an '07 - '08 winter. Nearest coop was 93".

[Torch Tiger]

07-08 was good but not spectacular in wilmington, ma with around 70" or so iirc. maybe a touch higher like 75"?  Best event was probably 12/16 in terms of impacts also iirc

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In fact it would harm matters 

reasoning there? supression, interference, both?

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

reasoning there? supression, interference, both?

Suppression, kind of is negative interference… But yeah, either way we look at it

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah let’s get a few SWFEs. Nice, low stress tracking with the wealth spread around. ineedsnow humping kuchie maps when we know it’ll be 10:1.

SWFEs are such an easy forecast. 5-7” thump followed by slot and drizzle. Could stat padders too. 

[eduggs]

Don't count your chickens guys/gals. It's risky to lock in a cold Canada based on a 15 day model forecast. Plenty of individual members plus operational runs show only transient cold up there. The ensemble mean blends it to look like wall to wall continuous cold, which it likely won't be. Out to day 10 does not look favorable for wintry weather at the moment on the ensembles. Beyond that gets increasingly unreliable in terms of predictive value. Most of us are passionately hoping for cold and snowy. But we've seen it too often over the past few years where many here bake in unrealistic expectations based on fantasy-range model charts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Don't count your chickens guys/gals. It's risky to lock in a cold Canada based on a 15 day model forecast. Plenty of individual members plus operational runs show only transient cold up there. The ensemble mean blends it to look like wall to wall continuous cold, which it likely won't be. Out to day 10 does not look favorable for wintry weather at the moment on the ensembles. Beyond that gets increasingly unreliable in terms of predictive value. Most of us are passionately hoping for cold and snowy. But we've seen it too often over the past few years where many here bake in unrealistic expectations based on fantasy-range model charts. 

Southern NJ where you live has literally nothing to do with New England or weather correlation. Even NYC Climo is better then yours man 

[eduggs]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Southern NJ where you live has literally nothing to do with New England or weather correlation. Even NYC Climo is better then yours man 

That's an ad hominem. I've been posting about New England weather longer than you have. Where I live (which happens to be very geographically close to your home state), is irrelevant. If you disagree with something I wrote than say so. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Don't count your chickens guys/gals. It's risky to lock in a cold Canada based on a 15 day model forecast. Plenty of individual members plus operational runs show only transient cold up there. The ensemble mean blends it to look like wall to wall continuous cold, which it likely won't be. Out to day 10 does not look favorable for wintry weather at the moment on the ensembles. Beyond that gets increasingly unreliable in terms of predictive value. Most of us are passionately hoping for cold and snowy. But we've seen it too often over the past few years where many here bake in unrealistic expectations based on fantasy-range model charts. 

Well as we have said, I think anything meaningful is after the first week. But the interior could sneak something in prior. 

[eduggs]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well as we have said, I think anything meaningful is after the first week. But the interior could sneak something in prior. 

I agree that IF/WHEN there is a meaningful snow event in SNE, it will likely happen beyond day 10. I think that because there is broad agreement between the GEPS, GEFS, and EPS of no big threat before then. I don't think that because of anything visible in the longer-range.

There is still some room to sneak in something wintry before then... e.g., the weak wave over the center of the US on the GFS at day 6 could evolve into something more... or numerous other very minor threats... but none are likely based on the current ensemble spreads.