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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...


Typhoon Tip
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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Been a lot of -NAO showing up even on the warmer ensemble looks. That’s a good sign though because when the PAC finally relaxes a little that will help us a lot. You can see it in some of the OP runs heading into early December….the weeklies show what happens when you keep the NAO look with a better PAC. 
 

The PAC will prob be a bit stubborn for a couple weeks so I wouldn't really get too anxious before the first week of December. 

Does the Pacific ever improve? Feel like it’s been a thorn in our sides for a decade. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Been a lot of -NAO showing up even on the warmer ensemble looks. That’s a good sign though because when the PAC finally relaxes a little that will help us a lot. You can see it in some of the OP runs heading into early December….the weeklies show what happens when you keep the NAO look with a better PAC. 
 

The PAC will prob be a bit stubborn for a couple weeks so I wouldn't really get too anxious before the first week of December. 

yeah, given how coupled the stratosphere is, I don't think we're on voodoo alert with the nearly certain SSW... we should see an Atlantic blocking spell this month

gfs_nh-namindex_20251117.png.46880f9a88130b49ffdd62bc20a2ea46.png

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A bad or negative Pacific cannot be overcome in the northeast. Particularly south of NNE. If it’s hostile . A good to great winter is virtually impossible 

This isnt true at all.

Down here i would be screwed but you wouldn't 

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56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A bad or negative Pacific cannot be overcome in the northeast. Particularly south of NNE. If it’s hostile . A good to great winter is virtually impossible 

Actually it can…but the pacific looks to improve.  The reversed Psych act is getting old.  You’ll be going gung ho in a couple weeks….I’ll bump this when you do.  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

‘70-71?

 

He wasn’t born.  Neither were you either lol. I was too young to remember.  I don’t ever remember in my life a wire to wire winter.  93-94 had a big melt out. So did 95-96…so both were record breaking here, but not wire to wire. And 14-15 certainly wasn’t wire to wire either. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He wasn’t born.  Neither were you either lol. I was too young to remember.  I don’t ever remember in my life a wire to wire winter.  93-94 had a big melt out. So did 95-96…so both were record breaking here, but not wire to wire. And 14-15 certainly wasn’t wire to wire either. 

That's because they are almost unheard of!  Getting a stretch like in 14-15 is about as good as you can hope for... A solid 6 week period is what I'd be happy with.  Wire to wire here SNE is almost impossible to achieve...

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