Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,336
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

I always thought the bias of the models mishandling of EPO at times had a greater impact regarding the dump of cold air just east of the Rockies. A -EPO is great in the sense that it delivers the Arctic air into the lower 48's but we also need a few other things align to get that to propagate east (without moderating). The overall structure of things seem like any colder shots here would be brief (though we probably still end up a  bit below average). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I always thought the bias of the models mishandling of EPO at times had a greater impact regarding the dump of cold air just east of the Rockies. A -EPO is great in the sense that it delivers the Arctic air into the lower 48's but we also need a few other things align to get that to propagate east (without moderating). The overall structure of things seem like any colder shots here would be brief (though we probably still end up a  bit below average). 

We don't need minus 25 850s . Climo says the upper Midwest gets bitterly cold. All we need is BN, some moisture and the right path. Watch as each run gets colder as we get closer to the end of the month. Movie seen.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We don't need minus 25 850s . Climo says the upper Midwest gets bitterly cold. All we need is BN, some moisture and the right path. Watch as each run gets colder as we get closer to the end of the month. Movie seen.

No disagreement there. 

My number one overall concern is just regarding the flow...it just remains overly strong and as long as that continues we're just going to have to really rely on threading the needle alot more and end up dealing with more "near misses" than not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

No disagreement there. 

My number one overall concern is just regarding the flow...it just remains overly strong and as long as that continues we're just going to have to really rely on threading the needle alot more and end up dealing with more "near misses" than not. 

My climo is 4 inches between now and mid Dec so expectations are really low. Give me a solid cover and cold 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My climo is 4 inches between now and mid Dec so expectations are really low. Give me a solid cover and cold 

I know our climo is mid January to mid February for our snows, but I really hate having to rely on that period to start playing "catchup". But this is more likely a product of the last several winters. But I'm so sick of this rut...we start super slow, then things start looking better towards peak, and then it's just a constant chasing of D10 pattern changes through peak climo, and then all of a sudden D10-15 all of a sudden is getting into and going through March. Then we get the best patterns in March when everyone is ready for warmer weather but end up with 35F rain storms while up north and higher elevations cash in 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I know our climo is mid January to mid February for our snows, but I really hate having to rely on that period to start playing "catchup". But this is more likely a product of the last several winters. But I'm so sick of this rut...we start super slow, then things start looking better towards peak, and then it's just a constant chasing of D10 pattern changes through peak climo, and then all of a sudden D10-15 all of a sudden is getting into and going through March. Then we get the best patterns in March when everyone is ready for warmer weather but end up with 35F rain storms while up north and higher elevations cash in 

Maybe for the heaviest…but I’d say mid December through mid March for good chances. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...