November 2025 OBS Discussion

[TJW014]

5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Pre-treating roads out this way; let the brine begin! (Ugh). 

Couldn't be better timing. Just finished undercoating all the vehicles over the weekend.

[steve392]

28 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Pre-treating roads out this way; let the brine begin! (Ugh). 

Where abouts they doing this? 

[donsutherland1]

A weak system could bring a few scattered rain and/or snow showers tonight into tomorrow. No measurable snowfall is likely in New York City. Since daily snowfall and temperature records were kept, just 1 out of 55 (1.8%) systems with minimum temperatures of 38° or above had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

Afterward, tomorrow will be another cool day with highs topping out in the 40s. Below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s.

A milder pattern will likely develop during the latter part of the week. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern could continue for a week or longer. 

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,389th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +27.87 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.686 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[nycwinter]

fall weather been so boring last few years in the northeast while california enjoys wild weather..