November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Wannabehippie]

On 11/21/2025 at 1:41 PM, eduggs said:

It responded that it didn't use any papers.

My earlier responses were based on:

• foundational meteorological knowledge (jet dynamics, cutoff-low behavior, coastal steering, ENSO teleconnections, North Pacific climatology),

• plus the real-time information I retrieved via your previous queries.

Keep in mind that chatGTP is not the be all and end all of accuracy. it is only as good as the search terms, and what is inputted in to it. Too many variables at this point with it IMHO.

 

[Sundog]

Do you know how hard it is for the EPS to show such a negative anomaly in the long range with our background state?

[cleetussnow]

53 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Do you know how hard it is for the EPS to show such a negative anomaly in the long range with our background state?

Not hard. Thats just a picture at this time horizon.  Artwork.  We see these model phantoms a lot, due to said background state.  

[psv88]

0.28 from the rain. 
 

looking forward to some sunny skies 

[the_other_guy]

27F, coldest thus far…and unexpected

[bluewave]

I guess it will be fitting that Thanksgiving is set to follow the same windy pattern we have seen all year. Mild Great Lakes cutter storm track on Wednesday. Then strong W to NW flow on Thursday.

The one hope is that the strongest winds of around 40 mph peak after parade time. But you can see this year already has double the number of 40 mph gust days as any previous year at over 60.

Most of the gusts since January have occurred behind Great Lakes or hugger storm tracks on W to NW flow. The one lone coastal storm back in October was one of the few days with a NE gust over 40 mph. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess it will be fitting that Thanksgiving is set to follow the same windy pattern we have seen all year. Mild Great Lakes cutter storm track on Wednesday. Then strong W to NW flow on Thursday.

The one hope is that the strongest winds of around 40 mph peak after parade time. But you can see this year already has double the number of 40 mph gust days as any previous year at over 60.

Most of the gusts since January have occurred behind Great Lakes or hugger storm tracks on W to NW flow. The one lone coastal storm back in October was one of the few days with a NE gust over 40 mph. 
 

 

Pattern is locked in with no signs of changes

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Pattern is locked in with no signs of changes

Record WPAC warm pool in conjunction with the cold over Siberia continue to create the very strong thermal gradient leading to the faster Pacific Jet and dominant Northern Stream Storm track.

The tropical warm pool near the equator and the record subtropical warm pool to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians both enhance the Southeast ridge. Plus the record Gulf Stream SSTs also contribute.

Models tend to underestimate this long range influence as we are seeing with the new forecasts in early December with stronger Southeast ridge than originally forecast. Once this pattern becomes established, it can linger longer than expected as we have often seen heading into December over the last decade. 
 

New EPS forecast for December 1-8

Old EPS forecast December 1-8

 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Pattern is locked in with no signs of changes

Yes right now but it shouldn't last. 

Delayed but not denied 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes right now but it shouldn't last. 

Delayed but not denied 

The long range EPS keeps underestimating that forcing in the 120E to 150E Maritime Continent regions.

New run

 

Old run

[susqushawn]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record WPAC warm pool in conjunction with the cold over Siberia continue to create the very strong thermal gradient leading to the faster Pacific Jet and dominant Northern Stream Storm track.

The tropical warm pool near the equator and the record subtropical warm pool to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians both enhance the Southeast ridge. Plus the record Gulf Stream SSTs also contribute.

Models tend to underestimate this long range influence as we are seeing with the new forecasts in early December with stronger Southeast ridge than originally forecast. Once this pattern becomes established, it can linger longer than expected as we have often seen heading into December over the last decade. 
 

New EPS forecast for December 1-8

Old EPS forecast December 1-8

 

Long range ensemble guidance has also routinely undersold the +PNA the last few months, this example of course flips that script

[MJO812]

Larry Cosgrove thinks December will be mild and January and February will be colder.

I haven't heard anyone say that expect him. All I have been hearing and seeing are  cold and active December forecasts due to the PV.

[wdrag]

Saw the prior 24 hours of posts... and suggests but not locked into a Wind Advy thread Fri 11/28, possibly starting Thanksgiving afternoon.  Awaiting 12z/24 (Monday) modeling. 

[lee59]

27 here earlier this morning, frosty

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Larry Cosgrove thinks December will be mild and January and February will be colder.

I haven't heard anyone say that expect him. All I have been hearing and seeing are  cold and active December forecasts due to the PV.

Literally no one is predicting December to be cold and active

[MJO812]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Literally no one is predicting December to be cold and active

Maybe no one on here but plenty of people have. Also , no clue why are you throwing in the towel in November. You do this all the time.

[FPizz]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe no one on here but plenty of people have. Also , no clue why are you throwing in the towel in November. You do this all the time.

Like I said, hes pushing 50 and banned from multiple boards for years for being an idiot.  Some people dont grow up.

25 this morning, coldest of season so far 

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Long range ensemble guidance has also routinely undersold the +PNA the last few months, this example of course flips that script

During more +PNA intervals like this fall the, the Southeast ridge was focused to the east building into Eastern New England and Canada on our 10 wettest storm days.

So these frequent WAR and Southeast ridge patterns are interchangeable.

They both have been leading to dominant Great Lakes cutter and hugger storm tracks whether we have had +PNA or -PNA patterns over the last 7 years since 2018-2019. 

10 wettest days storm track 500 mb composite this fall around the area with dominant Great Lakes cutter and hugger storm tracks and strong +PNA WAR pattern 

 

 

[Sundog]

I mean if all it takes is a cold Siberia and warm Pacific to end winter then we are never going to get cold and snow ever again

[SACRUS]

 

 

39 / 30 cloudy off a low of 26 here.  Clouds should hopefully clear later this afternoon.  Warmer through Wed (some showers / lght rain Tuesday)(  then Thursday transitions to colder.  A bit back and forth the next 10 days to two weeks and an option to be caught in the middle as this current warm up didnt fan out to what it could have been the Dec 2 - 7 one may be muted as well to a more cloudy /wet one but deep trough to the west and strong ridge in E ahead of the next trough with deep cold building north/west.

 

11/23 - 11/26 :  Above normal - rain Tue
11/27 - 12/1 :  Colder than normal  - overall 
12/2 - 12/6 or 7 :   Warmer than normal  /  could be cloudier / wetter or potential stronger warmth - departures.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1931)
NYC: 72 (1931)
LGA: 70 (1992)
JFK: 71 (1992)


Lows:

EWR: 13 (2018)
NYC: 14 (1880)
LGA: 17 (2018)
JFK: 15 (2018)

 

Historical:


1880: Cool wave set three records lows for the date at WBO, 12° /22nd, 12° /23rd, 13°/24th. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1909 - Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)

1912: The Rouse Simmons was a three-masted schooner famous for sinking during a violent storm on Lake Michigan on this day. The ship was bound for Chicago with a cargo of Christmas trees when it foundered off the coast of Two Rivers, Wisconsin, killing all on board.

1931: A ridge across extending from the Midwest to the east and a trough out west spelled record temperatures. Grand Rapids, MI hit 70, their warmest on record for so late in the season. Other daily record highs included: Charleston, WV: 86°, Huntington, WV: 78°, Boston, MA: 77°, Tupelo, MS: 76°, Cincinnati, OH: 75°, Cleveland, OH: 75°, Knoxville, TN: 75°, Nashville, TN: 75°, Syracuse, NY: 75°, Hartford, CT: 75°, Akron, OH: 74°, Youngstown, OH: 74°, Newark, NJ: 74°, Rochester, NY: 74°, Worcester, MA: 74°, Columbia, MO: 73°, Springfield, IL: 72°, Indianapolis, IN: 72°, Columbus, OH: 72°, Beckley, WV: 72°, Elkins, WV: 72°, Allentown, PA: 72°, Avoca, PA: 72°, Pittsburgh, PA: 72°, Albany, NY: 72°, New York (Central Park), NY: 72°, Providence, RI: 72°, Philadelphia, PA: 72°-Tied, Peoria, IL: 71°, South Bend, IN: 71°, Toledo, OH: 71°, Harrisburg, PA: 71°, Chicago, IL: 69°, Detroit, MI: 69°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1943 - Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm which left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, and 56 inches at Randolph. The 56 inch total at Randolph established a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)

1960: The Tiros II weather satellite was launched. It recorded 25,574 photographs during its 10 month lifespan. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1974: Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5-day snowstorm during which 28.3 inches fell, the greatest amount on record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1983: BA 24-hour snowfall record for Duluth, MN was broken with 16.9 inches. 19.7 inches fell during the entire storm, also a record. Ahead of the storm, high pressure brought record high temperatures from parts of the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley including: Montgomery, AL: 81°, Jackson, KY: 74°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific coast. Quillayute, WA, received 1.57 inches of rain in 24 hours, including nine tenths of an inch in six hours. Heavy snow fell over northern Oregon and the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. Temperatures began to moderate in the eastern U.S. following a bitterly cold weekend. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure crossing the Great Basin brought wintry weather to parts of the western U.S. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park, and winds gusted to 70 mph at casper WY, and reached 95 mph near Reno NV. Up to seven inches of rain was reported in the Grass Valley and Nevada City area of California. Paradise CA was soaked with 5.37 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure tracking across the Carolinas brought heavy rain to parts of the Southern Atlantic Coast Region for Thanksgiving Day, and blanketed the Middle Atlantic Coast States and southern New England with heavy snow. The storm produced up to nine inches of snow over Long Island NY, and up to 14 inches over Cape Cod MA, at Yarmouth. Totals of 4.7 inches at New York City and 6.0 inches at Newark NJ were records for Thanksgiving Day, the 8.0 inch total at Providence RI was a record for any given day in November, and the 6.5 inch total at Strasburg CT was a record for the month of November as a whole. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


 

1991
A winter storm dropped 6 to 12 inches of snow across parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. La Crosse, WI set a new record for 24-hour snowfall with 13 inches. This storm brought the monthly total to 28.2 inches, also a record. A few locations on the east coast reported record high temperatures including: Wallops Island, VA: 69°, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 63°-Tied and Islip, NY: 61°.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1992
As school buses hit the road for their morning pickups in the area around Elizabeth City, NC, the drivers were unaware that a series of tornadoes was approaching. Just before 7:30 am, one busload of students watched from a ditch as their bus was blown 75 yards by a tornado. Fortunately, the students and driver were unharmed. Overall, two F3 tornadoes struck in North Carolina resulting in 2 deaths and 59 injuries. This was the last day of the 3-day outbreak in which 93 tornadoes touched down claiming 25 lives. Record highs were set from North Carolina into southern New England including: Norfolk, VA: 81°, Wilmington, NC: 81°-Tied, Wallops Island, VA: 77°, Cape Hatteras, NC: 76°, Atlantic City, NJ: 74°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 71°, Islip, NY: 70°, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 70°, Bridgeport, CT: 67°.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Out west, a pre-Thanksgiving blizzard struck the Rockies from with wind gusts to 40 mph caused near white-out conditions. The strong winds drove snow into drifts of more than 4 feet in places. Flights were cancelled at the airport in Denver. Snowfall totals included: 19 inches at Littleton, CO, 16 inches at Castel Rock, CO, Story, MT: 14 inches, 12 inches at Conifer, Morrison & Wheat Ridge, CO, 9 inches at Brighton, CO, 8 inches at Aurora, CO, 7 inches at Sheridan, WY, 6 inches at Parker, CO & Burgess Junction, MT and 5 inches at Red Lodge, MT. 45 inches of snow fell in 24 hours at Alta, UT to set their all-time record for snowfall in a 24-hour period breaking their previous record of 38 inches set on 12/1-2, 1982.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: An F2 tornado in Hunt County, Arkansas destroyed three chicken houses that contained 120,000 chickens near the town of Hunt. Most of the chickens were killed. Tragically, the tornado also resulted in death of a woman in a mobile home. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: A trough extending from the Rockies to the West Coast brought record low temperatures for the date including: Pueblo, CO: -6°, Denver, CO: -3°, Grand Junction, CO: 4°, Hanford, CA: 24°, Madera, CA: 26°, Stockton, CA: 26°, Merced, CA: 27° and Eureka, CA: 30°. Paducah, KY hit 70°, setting record high temperature for the date while Buffalo, NY tied their afternoon high with 70°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004 - An outbreak of severe thunderstorms produced reports of 54 tornadoes across portions of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alabama. In Texas's Hardin county, one person was killed with three injured when a tornado struck during the afternoon (Associated Press).

[SACRUS]

 

Nov 23, 1989 Thanksgiving Snowstorm

 

 

 

 

[winterwx21]

58 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Like I said, hes pushing 50 and banned from multiple boards for years for being an idiot.  Some people dont grow up.

25 this morning, coldest of season so far 

It was the coldest of the season so far here this morning as well -- I got down to 26. I still had some leaves on a couple trees in my yard, but the hard freeze this morning knocked the rest of them off. I'll do the final leaf cleanup tomorrow. 

[SnoSki14]

56 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I mean if all it takes is a cold Siberia and warm Pacific to end winter then we are never going to get cold and snow ever again

It feels that way. Same ole garbage pattern locked in for years. 

At least I got to experience an amazing winter stretch from 2000-2018 

[Sundog]

It actually went below freezing in east Queens this morning instead of scraping just above it like we have had several times already. 

 

[psv88]

27 this morning, all of the stubborn leaves dropped this morning. 

[eduggs]

If we can get the thermal boundary to be squashed far enough south we might at least be able to begin with some wintry precipitation out ahead of any overrunning system around 11/30 (Thanksgiving weekend). The ICON and now GFS have been hinting at this scenario. The 0z CMC and ECM had a less defined mid-level shortwave (~day 6) between the prominent systems, but the EC-AI is somewhat supportive. This looks volatile in the modeling as there are strong waves upstream and downstream that will likely lead to major run-to-run changes. But I think there is a small hint of a pathway to something wintry before fantasy-range.

[eduggs]

On the 12z GFS, we are closer to the cold side of the strong thermal boundary modeled to set up in early December. I expect this boundary to nose southward and affect the north country, but it could potentially push even further south. I'd rather see weaker waves eject northeastward and slowly decay instead of consolidated ULLs pumping the east coast ridge.  We could really use some well-timed suppression. The subtle upper level interactions will have huge implications on surface weather over this holiday period and beyond.