November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Sundog]

My current temperature is actually the warmest of the day at 41 degrees. 

[ForestHillWx]

Pretty sure I just saw a small area of pink skies to my north. Assuming northern lights? 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Pretty sure I just saw a small area of pink skies to my north. Assuming northern lights? 

Yeah reports coming in they are visible tonight

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah reports coming in they are visible tonight

Friend in town caught this like 35 min ago

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

The PNA ridge got replaced with a deep trough...that will do it-

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Veteran's Day Lake Effect Storm of 1996 was a crazy one, although that lasted multiple days. Nearly SIX FEET of snow in Chardon, Ohio! Much more impressive than the current event.

A Record Ohio Snowfall during 9–14 November 1996 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 80 Issue 6 (1999)

I remember that...it was all over the news...I was in HS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Yes for sure but I think we had a few years of excess water vapor from Tonga which is finally starting to lessen.  It gave an artificial boost to the CC which of course is continuing

Interesting take...I think that coincided with the nadir of the cold phase, too....starting to turn the corner a bit.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

My current temperature is actually the warmest of the day at 41 degrees. 

More of a southerly trajectory to the winds and CAA aloft ended. 

[brooklynwx99]

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

[WestBabylonWeather]

Aurora was visible without a camera last night. With 2-3 second exposure great pictures. Skies were pretty clear at 1130

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, susqushawn said:

who knows, most guidance missed the cool shot they're now trending towards, maybe the lala land full lat trough out west will evolve into more of a split flow look as we get closer

We recently got the big wave break from the record low east of Newfoundland. This feature wasn’t showing up near the start of November. So the much stronger blocking lead to the pattern this week being cooler than originally forecast.

But what hasn’t changed is the very fast Pacific flow. This leads to the persistent cutter, hugger, snd suppressed Southern stream storm tracks. A few days ago the models were hinting at a transfer going south of Long Island. Now the storm has shifted north with a warmer track.  

Another recurring feature has been a trough to our west during storm time which is continuing. So going into December I am more interested in what happens with the storm track rather than what kind of temperature departures the long range models are showing.

Since as we saw last winter, if the storm tracks are warm even in a slightly colder overall pattern it will lead to below average snowfall. But we have plenty of time to see how things go once we get into the beginning of December. 

Weekend low shifted further north

New run

Old run

 

[wdrag]

If indeed weak La Niña this winter?  should snowfall departures be similar? 

[SACRUS]

 

44 / 28 clouds holding tight. Warmer tomorrow and then a bit back and forth towards / after mid month overall near / warmer than normal.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2022)
NYC: 76 (1879)
LGA: 69 (2022)
JFK: 72 (2022)


Lows:

EWR: 25 (2019)
NYC: 25 (2019)
LGA: 27 (2019)
JFK: 25 (2019)

Historical:

 

1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel)

1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum)

1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993 A winter storm moved through the area on November 12th and 13th. A wintry mix of precipitation in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow began during the afternoon on the 12th in western portions of Minnesota, while heavy snow fell in a swath from southwest South Dakota through central and northeast parts of the state, with generally four to eight inches reported. Freezing rain also preceded the snow in south-central South Dakota. Significant accumulation of ice occurred within about a 70-mile wide area from west central Minnesota into the Arrowhead region. Up to five inches of snow fell on top of the ice, making travel extremely hazardous. In South Dakota, locally heavier snowfall amounts included 12 inches at Midland and 10 inches central Hughes County. Several schools and other community events were closed due to the ice and snow. In south central South Dakota, trees were damaged by heavy ice, some of which fell on power lines, causing an outage. Other snowfall amounts include; 8.0 inches in Blunt; 7.0 inches in Murdo and near Victor; and 6.0 inches near Onida, Faulkton, Highmore, and Leola.

2003 - Thunderstorms developed in southern California and produced torrential downpours across parts of the Los Angeles area. More than 5 inches of rain fell in just 2 hours in southern Los Angeles, producing severe urban flooding. Small hail also accompanied the storms, accumulating several inches deep in some areas of the city. Nearly 115,000 electrical customers lost power as the storms affected the area (Associated Press).

[SACRUS]

 

The cool departures

 

EWR:
11/11 : 42/ 33 (-10)
NYC: 
11/11: 41 / 22 (-12)
LGA:
11/11: 43  / 34 (-13)
JFK:
11/11:  42 / 33 (-10)
TTN:
11/11: 42 / 30 (-10)

[the_other_guy]

16 hours ago, qg_omega said:

You are on the cold and snow train for December?  What’s expected??

Hes always on that train. Just like youre always not along with Bluewave.

We got it guys, lots of narratives. But the weather always comes out in the wash.

 

You’ll get your 4 inches in December and Id take the high end of Accuweather seasonal fluff

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

44 / 28 clouds holding tight. Warmer tomorrow and then a bit back and forth towards / after mid month overall near / warmer than normal.

 

Yep. What a nasty afternoon. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Hes always on that train. Just like youre always not along with Bluewave.

We got it guys, lots of narratives. But the weather always comes out in the wash.

 

You’ll get your 4 inches in December and Id take the high end of Accuweather seasonal fluff

Well said.  Alot of agendas around here but in the end climo will be climo around here for the most part.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Well said.  Alot of agendas around here but in the end climo will be climo around here for the most part.

Not understanding how certain posters have “warm agendas” and they get trolled but we get weenie mets who clearly post cold/snow favorable maps for clicks and subscriptions quoted here. Trust me I want it to snow as much as anyone but the last 5-6 years generally have been very unfavorable for our area to do well. It’s reality and we don’t like it, but nature doesn’t care what we like. Sooner or later the “warm agenda” posters will likely be too conservative but they’ve reflected the reality much better since the regime changed in 2018-19. If we have a Pacific jet dominated winter again, it’s very unlikely we make it to normal snow. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not understanding how certain posters have “warm agendas” and they get trolled but we get weenie mets who clearly post cold/snow favorable maps for clicks and subscriptions quoted here. Trust me I want it to snow as much as anyone but the last 5-6 years generally have been very unfavorable for our area to do well. It’s reality and we don’t like it, but nature doesn’t care what we like. Sooner or later the “warm agenda” posters will likely be too conservative but they’ve reflected the reality much better since the regime changed in 2018-19. If we have a Pacific jet dominated winter again, it’s very unlikely we make it to normal snow. 

We also got spoiled from 2019-2018-that 9-10 yrs was ridiculous for snow.    It got to be to the point where that was considered normal and folks were surprised when it all ended.

[Sundog]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

We also got spoiled from 2019-2018-that 9-10 yrs was ridiculous for snow.    It got to be to the point where that was considered normal and folks were surprised when it all ended.

Nobody over the age of 15 could have possibly thought that was normal.

Ironically we recorded a disproportionate amount of epic duds during the last 25 years as well. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Nobody over the age of 15 could have possibly thought that was normal.

Ironically we recorded a disproportionate amount of epic duds during the last 25 years as well. 

Yep, climate change I’m sure has a significant role but we were way overdue for a correction. NYC can’t get away with regular 40”+ winters. No way. 

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember that...it was all over the news...I was in HS.

Yes, indeed. Couple comments on the AMS journal article I linked to. The authors cite the prior record statewide storm total snowfall as 42.0" at Gratiot, Ohio, from April 19-22, 1901. 42.0" of snow was also observed by the observer at Canton, Ohio, from that same storm, although it looks like those observations have never been digitized. Additionally, 44.0" was reported at Steubenville, Ohio, from November 24-29, 1950, during the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950, which is probably the true record besides this 1996 LES storm.

Interestingly, they conclude that a snow depth of 48" reported by a nearby observer was incorrect and inflated. One would think the more reasonable conclusion is the snowfall amounts were underreported due to the infrequency of measurements. Also, as further evidence of inflation, the author points out that only 1" remained on the ground at the end of the month at that site, while 6" was observed at the other site. However, this could easily be explained by one location being in a sunnier and more exposed location, or by the other spot receiving more snow the remainder of the month. It sounds like another 7 or 8" fell there even after this storm. Either way, that is an impressive duration of snow cover for the month of November - even for the "snow belt" of Ohio.