November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Sundog]

My current temperature is actually the warmest of the day at 41 degrees. 

[ForestHillWx]

Pretty sure I just saw a small area of pink skies to my north. Assuming northern lights? 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Pretty sure I just saw a small area of pink skies to my north. Assuming northern lights? 

Yeah reports coming in they are visible tonight

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah reports coming in they are visible tonight

Friend in town caught this like 35 min ago

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Familiar pattern of the Greenland block eventually linking up with the Southeast ridge again leading to a warm up following this brief cooldown.

 

The PNA ridge got replaced with a deep trough...that will do it-

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Veteran's Day Lake Effect Storm of 1996 was a crazy one, although that lasted multiple days. Nearly SIX FEET of snow in Chardon, Ohio! Much more impressive than the current event.

A Record Ohio Snowfall during 9–14 November 1996 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 80 Issue 6 (1999)

I remember that...it was all over the news...I was in HS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Yes for sure but I think we had a few years of excess water vapor from Tonga which is finally starting to lessen.  It gave an artificial boost to the CC which of course is continuing

Interesting take...I think that coincided with the nadir of the cold phase, too....starting to turn the corner a bit.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

My current temperature is actually the warmest of the day at 41 degrees. 

More of a southerly trajectory to the winds and CAA aloft ended. 

[brooklynwx99]

the Pacific jet is going to retract and shift equatorward after its poleward extension next week, which should lead to the -EPO that we're waiting for. I have pretty high confidence in this -EPO developing; the progression makes sense. BN to much BN temps in the East would follow into early Dec

trough near Japan/HI are also old-school signs of a favorable Pacific pattern

[WestBabylonWeather]

Aurora was visible without a camera last night. With 2-3 second exposure great pictures. Skies were pretty clear at 1130

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, susqushawn said:

who knows, most guidance missed the cool shot they're now trending towards, maybe the lala land full lat trough out west will evolve into more of a split flow look as we get closer

We recently got the big wave break from the record low east of Newfoundland. This feature wasn’t showing up near the start of November. So the much stronger blocking lead to the pattern this week being cooler than originally forecast.

But what hasn’t changed is the very fast Pacific flow. This leads to the persistent cutter, hugger, snd suppressed Southern stream storm tracks. A few days ago the models were hinting at a transfer going south of Long Island. Now the storm has shifted north with a warmer track.  

Another recurring feature has been a trough to our west during storm time which is continuing. So going into December I am more interested in what happens with the storm track rather than what kind of temperature departures the long range models are showing.

Since as we saw last winter, if the storm tracks are warm even in a slightly colder overall pattern it will lead to below average snowfall. But we have plenty of time to see how things go once we get into the beginning of December. 

Weekend low shifted further north

New run

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