November 2025 OBS Discussion

[sussexcountyobs]

Moderate snow currently falling. Sticking to all surfaces. 26.8°

[wdrag]

These snow obs should be going on the specific thread for today. Thanks

 

[IrishRob17]

57 minutes ago, wdrag said:

These snow obs should be going on the specific thread for today. Thanks

 

Hers the link for today

 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Certainly hasn't seemed that way with the historical snowfall drought in Cleveland and many other Great Lakes locations:

The snowbelt areas to the east of Cleveland have been holding their own with the shift in the storm tracks. Places like Erie, PA are positioned better for all the storm tracks through the Great Lakes. It’s areas to the east like State College that are on the warmer side of the storm tracks now which have seen a steep decline. 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugly pattern for winter lovers. Big block north linking up with SE ridge again. 

Its November.  Give it time. 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Very nice write up and good luck with the forecast. My only comment is with the NYC snowfall forecast. NYC hasn’t had close to normal in the 19”-29” snowfall range without at least one benchmark KU event since the 1990s.

So if the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Storm track of the last 7 years continues, then 19” may be closer to the top end of the range. But if we can get lucky and sneak in a benchmark event, then 25” to 29” would be possible.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very nice write up and good luck with the forecast. My only comment is with the NYC snowfall forecast. NYC hasn’t had close to normal in the 19”-29” snowfall range without at least one benchmark KU event since the 1990s.

So if the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Storm track of the last 7 years continues, then 19” may be closer to the top end of the range. But if we can get lucky and sneak in a benchmark event, then 25” to 29” would be possible.

Predicting snowfall is the hardest thing to do. Luck has nothing to do with it . A good pattern will yield good results. 

Hopefully we get a nice and snowy winter .

[donsutherland1]

Some flurries and snow showers in Larchmont, NY.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Predicting snowfall is the hardest thing to do. Luck has nothing to do with it . A good pattern will yield good results. 

Hopefully we get a nice and snowy winter .

I use the term luck in a less formal sense. Since the Pacific has been so overpowering over the last 7 seasons.

Agree with you that if we actually do get a benchmark storm that it will be because of a change at least briefly in the pattern and not luck.

While snowfall forecasts are challenging, we know what to expect if we continue with the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream over the last 7 years. 

So I am hoping that we can at least change up the storm track briefly for a finish closer to average snowfall this year.

[Sundog]

33 degrees with some light flurries falling here. 

 

[FPizz]

29 last night.  

[Sundog]

A burst of light snow with a coating on cars and colder surfaces. 

Nice to see!

 

[MJO812]

First flurries in Manhattan

Another burst of snow later per HRRR

[lee59]

Snow shower here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Predicting snowfall is the hardest thing to do. Luck has nothing to do with it . A good pattern will yield good results. 

Hopefully we get a nice and snowy winter .

Luck has quite a bit to do with snowfall...moreso than any other winter variable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very nice write up and good luck with the forecast. My only comment is with the NYC snowfall forecast. NYC hasn’t had close to normal in the 19”-29” snowfall range without at least one benchmark KU event since the 1990s.

So if the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Storm track of the last 7 years continues, then 19” may be closer to the top end of the range. But if we can get lucky and sneak in a benchmark event, then 25” to 29” would be possible.

I do think this season will be more conducive to that type pf track at times.

[lee59]

I don't know if if hit 32 in Manhattan but they are getting flurries and I have noticed they seem to get snow some years before the first official freeze.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Official first flakes

 

11/11 

 

[Cfa]

35 with flurries in Medford.

No freeze this morning, low was 33.

[TJW014]

Not as cold overnight as I anticipated. Only down to 34. Growing season continues along the immediate coast

[SACRUS]

36 / 21 in the between the clouds and sunny here for a bit  coldest today / Wed.  Windy / cold snow showers and flurries.   Moderating by Friday and into the weekend. Overall near / slightly above normal into mid month and beyond - back and forth but above normal.

 

[jm1220]

Thought we could get below freezing with the CAA continuing overnight-oh well. Flurries are nice to see.

[Sundog]

My thermometer bottomed out at 33 degrees but I had a little puddle leftover from the rain and it was frozen. 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  75 (1949)
NYC: 74 (1949)
LGA: 74 (1949)
JFK: 69 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 24 (2017)
NYC: 24 (2017)
LGA: 26 (2017)
JFK: 24 (2017)

 

Historical:

 

1911 - The central U.S. experienced perhaps its most dramatic cold wave of record. During the early morning temperatures across the Central Plains ranged from 68 degrees at Kansas City to 4 above North Platte NE. In Kansas City, the temperature warmed to a record 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies become overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero. Oklahoma City also established a record high of 83 degrees and record low of 17 degrees that same day. In southeastern Kansas, the temperature at Independence plunged from 83 degrees to 33 degrees in just one hour. The arctic cold front produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley, a blizzard in the Ohio Va

 

1911: A powerful cold front, known as the Great Blue Norther of 1911, produced some of the most extreme temperature changes to the Nation's midsection. Ahead of the cold front, a warm and moist environment caused a severe weather outbreak with several strong tornadoes reported in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. An estimated F4 tornado occurred from Janesville to Milton, Wisconsin, and caused extensive damage to several farms and killed nine people. The citizens of Janesville, Wisconsin, reported blizzard conditions with a temperature near zero within an hour of the tornado. 

 

 

1940 - An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused ship wrecks resulting in another 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives, and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Whole towns were isolated by huge snowdrifts. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused shipwrecks resulting in 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN, the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Huge snowdrifts isolated whole towns.

1955 - An early arctic outbreak set many November temperature records across Oregon and Washington. The severe cold damaged shrubs and fruit trees. Readings plunged to near zero in western Washington, and dipped to 19 degrees below zero in the eastern part of the state. (David Ludlum)

1980: On this date through the 12th, More than 23 inches of rain fell on Key West. This is their greatest 24-hour amount ever recorded. Widespread flooding caused heavy damage to about 300 cars and 500 homes and businesses. Five waterspouts were sighted during the next afternoon.  (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1987 - A deepening low pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington D.C. area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Totals in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado ranged up to 10 inches at Summitville. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail in central Oklahoma and north central Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Veteran's Day was an unseasonably warm one across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the southern half of the Atlantic coast. Thirty-four cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 85 degrees. Calico AR and Gilbert AR reported record highs of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)


1991: Unseasonable severe thunderstorms brought large hail up to golf ball size in parts of Connecticut during the pre-dawn hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1995 : Strong downslope winds gusted to 124 mph at the National Center for Atmospheric Research on the mesa in Boulder, CO. Utility poles and power lines were downed leaving several hundred homes without power in Boulder, where windows were also blown out of cars. Other reports of strong wind gusts included: 104 mph atop Squaw Mountain, west of Denver, 99 mph in Golden Gate Canyon, 85 mph on Rocky Flats, and 69 mph at the Jefferson County Airport. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1996: Heavy snows fell across the Great Lakes. Cleveland, OH, Erie, PA and Syracuse, NY were blanketed under incredible snowfall. Three-day storm totals included 68.9 inches at Chardon, OH, 54.8 inches at Edinboro, PA and 50 inches at Shaker Heights, OH. 41 inches fell in downtown Erie, PA with 27 inches at the Erie Airport and 20.8 inches fell at Cleveland, OH. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2002: Tennessee and Ohio Valley Region on the 10th & 11th of November: A late-season, major outbreak of tornadoes causes damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touch down on Sunday (10th), resulting in at least 36 deaths. (Ref. WxDoctor)

[SACRUS]

1987: The Veterans Day Snowstorm -- On the weekend preceding the storm, November 7th through the eighth, the region experienced beautiful 70 degree Fahrenheit weather. The snow began during the early morning of November 11th with a quick burst of snow that produced 1 to 2 inches across Washington, DC. But snowfall quickly ended, leading many to believe the storm was over. For a few hours in the morning no snow fell and people headed off to work, school and shopping. A second low system quickly intensified. By noon, a very heavy, nearly stationary, band of snow had set up through the eastern half of the area. Localized within this band, snow fell at a whiteout rate of 3 to 4 inches per hour for several hours, accompanied by lightning and thunder. This was the earliest snowstorm ever to hit the Washington area. The 11.5 inches of snow that fell at National Airport easily broke an old November record of only 6.9 inches that fell on November 30, 1967. The next earliest date for a snowstorm of that magnitude occurred well into the month of December when 12 inches of snow fell on December 17, 1932. National Airport was in the heavy snow band that reached its maximum of 14 to 16 inches in western Prince George's County. Snowfall amounts were much less to the Northwest with Gaithersburg reporting only 3 to 4 inches of snow. Both Boston and Providence received 10 inches of snow early also setting new season records. On November 12th, a high temperature 48 degrees F allowed for a quick return to normal road conditions for the area.
(p. 92-93 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  (Ref. Wilson Weather History) Veterans Day snowstorm-record 11.5 ins. at DCA after a high of 72° on 9th---- A deepening low-pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington, DC area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records.
(Ref. Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I use the term luck in a less formal sense. Since the Pacific has been so overpowering over the last 7 seasons.

Agree with you that if we actually do get a benchmark storm that it will be because of a change at least briefly in the pattern and not luck.

While snowfall forecasts are challenging, we know what to expect if we continue with the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream over the last 7 years. 

So I am hoping that we can at least change up the storm track briefly for a finish closer to average snowfall this year.

In my immediate area we can do okay with marginal events sometimes where the city and south shore get white rain-I ended up with just over 19" last winter. But it certainly won't be good in any sense unless we start getting the offshore amplified storm tracks again. 

In State College and Central PA generally we can definitely see a long term pronounced shift away from snowy patterns for that area-clippers are pretty good for them and they've gone extinct, we don't have Miller A type huggers anymore like March 1993, and redeveloping Miller Bs have started to redevelop too late and Central PA would be stuck in either a dryslot or sleet fest. When I was there we saw storms like in Feb 2007 initially forecast to dump a huge amount of snow on the I-80 corridor, but the primary cut too far north and it turned into a sleetfest while upstate NY into New England got the most snow. A whole bunch of the 2007-08 Nina driven storms were sleetfests in State College. Sad what's happened there for snow lovers and we can't say anymore it's something temporary since it's been like this for 20 years now. There have been 2 seasons in that stretch that made it to 50" and many around/below 30" when their long term average used to be around 45-48". Hopefully something like this isn't happening here now.

[SACRUS]

 

Snow showers / flurries mainly into NNJ/NYC

 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Snow showers / flurries mainly into NNJ/NYC

 

The sky had the snow squally look this morning when that little burst occured over Queens, it's hard to describe but you know it when you see it

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

In my immediate area we can do okay with marginal events sometimes where the city and south shore get white rain-I ended up with just over 19" last winter. But it certainly won't be good in any sense unless we start getting the offshore amplified storm tracks again. 

In State College and Central PA generally we can definitely see a long term pronounced shift away from snowy patterns for that area-clippers are pretty good for them, we don't have Miller A type huggers anymore like March 1993, and redeveloping Miller Bs have started to redevelop too late and Central PA would be stuck in either a dryslot or sleet fest. When I was there we saw storms like in Feb 2007 initially forecast to dump a huge amount of snow on the I-80 corridor, but the primary cut too far north and it turned into a sleetfest while upstate NY into New England got the most snow. A whole bunch of the 2007-08 Nina driven storms were sleetfests in State College. Sad what's happened there for snow lovers and we can't say anymore it's something temporary since it's been like this for 20 years now. There have been 2 seasons in that stretch that made it to 50" and many around/below 30" when their long term average used to be around 45-48". Hopefully something like this isn't happening here now.

Yeah, State College was a great spot from the 60s into the early 00s with all those deep Miller As tracking just west or east of the Delaware Valley. Now the lows track up through the Great Lakes last 7 seasons or redevelop and hug the I-78 to I-84 corridor and dry slot Central PA like you mentioned.

 It’s been 20 years for them with declining snowfall. They missed out during the epic 2010 to 2018 benchmark era with the storm tracks too far east for them. Now the storm tracks are too far west for them. So an extended period with well below average snows. 

[TheClimateChanger]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  75 (1949)
NYC: 74 (1949)
LGA: 74 (1949)
JFK: 69 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 24 (2017)
NYC: 24 (2017)
LGA: 26 (2017)
JFK: 24 (2017)

 

Historical:

 

1911 - The central U.S. experienced perhaps its most dramatic cold wave of record. During the early morning temperatures across the Central Plains ranged from 68 degrees at Kansas City to 4 above North Platte NE. In Kansas City, the temperature warmed to a record 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies become overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero. Oklahoma City also established a record high of 83 degrees and record low of 17 degrees that same day. In southeastern Kansas, the temperature at Independence plunged from 83 degrees to 33 degrees in just one hour. The arctic cold front produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley, a blizzard in the Ohio Va

 

1911: A powerful cold front, known as the Great Blue Norther of 1911, produced some of the most extreme temperature changes to the Nation's midsection. Ahead of the cold front, a warm and moist environment caused a severe weather outbreak with several strong tornadoes reported in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. An estimated F4 tornado occurred from Janesville to Milton, Wisconsin, and caused extensive damage to several farms and killed nine people. The citizens of Janesville, Wisconsin, reported blizzard conditions with a temperature near zero within an hour of the tornado. 

 

 

1940 - An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused ship wrecks resulting in another 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives, and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Whole towns were isolated by huge snowdrifts. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused shipwrecks resulting in 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN, the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Huge snowdrifts isolated whole towns.

1955 - An early arctic outbreak set many November temperature records across Oregon and Washington. The severe cold damaged shrubs and fruit trees. Readings plunged to near zero in western Washington, and dipped to 19 degrees below zero in the eastern part of the state. (David Ludlum)

1980: On this date through the 12th, More than 23 inches of rain fell on Key West. This is their greatest 24-hour amount ever recorded. Widespread flooding caused heavy damage to about 300 cars and 500 homes and businesses. Five waterspouts were sighted during the next afternoon.  (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1987 - A deepening low pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington D.C. area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Totals in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado ranged up to 10 inches at Summitville. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail in central Oklahoma and north central Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Veteran's Day was an unseasonably warm one across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the southern half of the Atlantic coast. Thirty-four cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 85 degrees. Calico AR and Gilbert AR reported record highs of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)


1991: Unseasonable severe thunderstorms brought large hail up to golf ball size in parts of Connecticut during the pre-dawn hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1995 : Strong downslope winds gusted to 124 mph at the National Center for Atmospheric Research on the mesa in Boulder, CO. Utility poles and power lines were downed leaving several hundred homes without power in Boulder, where windows were also blown out of cars. Other reports of strong wind gusts included: 104 mph atop Squaw Mountain, west of Denver, 99 mph in Golden Gate Canyon, 85 mph on Rocky Flats, and 69 mph at the Jefferson County Airport. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1996: Heavy snows fell across the Great Lakes. Cleveland, OH, Erie, PA and Syracuse, NY were blanketed under incredible snowfall. Three-day storm totals included 68.9 inches at Chardon, OH, 54.8 inches at Edinboro, PA and 50 inches at Shaker Heights, OH. 41 inches fell in downtown Erie, PA with 27 inches at the Erie Airport and 20.8 inches fell at Cleveland, OH. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2002: Tennessee and Ohio Valley Region on the 10th & 11th of November: A late-season, major outbreak of tornadoes causes damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touch down on Sunday (10th), resulting in at least 36 deaths. (Ref. WxDoctor)

Veteran's Day Lake Effect Storm of 1996 was a crazy one, although that lasted multiple days. Nearly SIX FEET of snow in Chardon, Ohio! Much more impressive than the current event.

A Record Ohio Snowfall during 9–14 November 1996 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 80 Issue 6 (1999)