November 2025 OBS Discussion

[sussexcountyobs]

Moderate snow currently falling. Sticking to all surfaces. 26.8°

[wdrag]

These snow obs should be going on the specific thread for today. Thanks

 

[IrishRob17]

57 minutes ago, wdrag said:

These snow obs should be going on the specific thread for today. Thanks

 

Hers the link for today

 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Certainly hasn't seemed that way with the historical snowfall drought in Cleveland and many other Great Lakes locations:

The snowbelt areas to the east of Cleveland have been holding their own with the shift in the storm tracks. Places like Erie, PA are positioned better for all the storm tracks through the Great Lakes. It’s areas to the east like State College that are on the warmer side of the storm tracks now which have seen a steep decline. 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugly pattern for winter lovers. Big block north linking up with SE ridge again. 

Its November.  Give it time. 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Very nice write up and good luck with the forecast. My only comment is with the NYC snowfall forecast. NYC hasn’t had close to normal in the 19”-29” snowfall range without at least one benchmark KU event since the 1990s.

So if the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Storm track of the last 7 years continues, then 19” may be closer to the top end of the range. But if we can get lucky and sneak in a benchmark event, then 25” to 29” would be possible.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very nice write up and good luck with the forecast. My only comment is with the NYC snowfall forecast. NYC hasn’t had close to normal in the 19”-29” snowfall range without at least one benchmark KU event since the 1990s.

So if the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Storm track of the last 7 years continues, then 19” may be closer to the top end of the range. But if we can get lucky and sneak in a benchmark event, then 25” to 29” would be possible.

Predicting snowfall is the hardest thing to do. Luck has nothing to do with it . A good pattern will yield good results. 

Hopefully we get a nice and snowy winter .

[donsutherland1]

Some flurries and snow showers in Larchmont, NY.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Predicting snowfall is the hardest thing to do. Luck has nothing to do with it . A good pattern will yield good results. 

Hopefully we get a nice and snowy winter .

I use the term luck in a less formal sense. Since the Pacific has been so overpowering over the last 7 seasons.

Agree with you that if we actually do get a benchmark storm that it will be because of a change at least briefly in the pattern and not luck.

While snowfall forecasts are challenging, we know what to expect if we continue with the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream over the last 7 years. 

So I am hoping that we can at least change up the storm track briefly for a finish closer to average snowfall this year.

[Sundog]

33 degrees with some light flurries falling here. 

 

[FPizz]

29 last night.  

[Sundog]

A burst of light snow with a coating on cars and colder surfaces. 

Nice to see!

 

[MJO812]

First flurries in Manhattan

Another burst of snow later per HRRR

[lee59]

Snow shower here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Predicting snowfall is the hardest thing to do. Luck has nothing to do with it . A good pattern will yield good results. 

Hopefully we get a nice and snowy winter .

Luck has quite a bit to do with snowfall...moreso than any other winter variable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very nice write up and good luck with the forecast. My only comment is with the NYC snowfall forecast. NYC hasn’t had close to normal in the 19”-29” snowfall range without at least one benchmark KU event since the 1990s.

So if the dominant Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Storm track of the last 7 years continues, then 19” may be closer to the top end of the range. But if we can get lucky and sneak in a benchmark event, then 25” to 29” would be possible.

I do think this season will be more conducive to that type pf track at times.

[lee59]

I don't know if if hit 32 in Manhattan but they are getting flurries and I have noticed they seem to get snow some years before the first official freeze.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Official first flakes

 

11/11 

 

[Cfa]

35 with flurries in Medford.

No freeze this morning, low was 33.

[TJW014]

Not as cold overnight as I anticipated. Only down to 34. Growing season continues along the immediate coast