Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[MonumentalNole]

Is Melissa causing the current rip tide off the SE US coast from the other side of Cuba?  Or is that due to other environmental factors and just a coincidence?

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, MonumentalNole said:

Is Melissa causing the current rip tide off the SE US coast from the other side of Cuba?  Or is that due to other environmental factors and just a coincidence?

 

Not related that's from a separate storm

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, MonumentalNole said:

Is Melissa causing the current rip tide off the SE US coast from the other side of Cuba?  Or is that due to other environmental factors and just a coincidence?

 

That’s due to the forming nor’easter 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Interstate said:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-15-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Ah, I was referring to radar for low level structure. It’s really hard getting regional radars. 

[WolfStock1]

26 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

There is no other place to build there, and Helene's flood was orders of magnitude bigger than any prior flood, so it reached areas that had been assumed to be safe. Much like what is about to happen to Jamaica. 

 

And landslides happen where you never think a flood will happen. To say Helene didnt have any "wiped off the map" damage as one poster said, is just wrong. Ask Chimney Rock and Bat Cave and Minneapolis and any number of other communities. When the mountainside comes down, everything is gone.

I pray for these poor people in the way of this one. 

 

Here's the thing - I've driven through Chimney Rock, which was probably the worst-hit place, just a few months ago.   Roughly half the downtown was wiped out.   But generally that's about it; and it's a quite-small downtown actually.   I have relatives that live right there in Lake Lure, and they - along with about 95% of the area - were relatively unaffected, aside from lost power, some downed trees, and some road washouts.   The vast majority of structures were generally unaffected.  You see the spectacular devastation of the areas hardest hit and assume that's the majority of places, but it's not; it's media selection bias.

Contrast with the eye wall of a hurricane - of this force - which will wipe out almost everything; leaving almost no structure at least undamaged, and completely destroying a high percentage.

Part of the reason I say that is due to the poverty of Jamaica - they just don't have the hurricane wind standards that the US does.

(Just to reiterate - not trying to understate the fact that there will be massive rain-flood damage; I'm just asserting that I think the wind damage will likely be worse, along with the storm surge flooding.)

Edit to add: the "wiped off the map" verbiage was mine - but I specifically qualified it with "large areas"; what I meant was for instance miles-wide swaths.   In Chimney Rock's case, for instance, the swath was roughly 300-500 ft wide (you can see on google maps).    Melissa's eye wall is about 300x that wide.

[klw]

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ah, I was referring to radar for low level structure. It’s really hard getting regional radars. 

Cuban radar

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

 

 

 

 

[CTWeatherFreak]

She lost her eye  

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Here's the thing - I've driven through Chimney Rock, which was probably the worst-hit place, just a few months ago.   Roughly half the downtown was wiped out.   But generally that's about it; and it's a quite-small downtown actually.   I have relatives that live right there in Lake Lure, and they - along with about 95% of the area - were relatively unaffected, aside from lost power, some downed trees, and some road washouts.   The vast majority of structures were generally unaffected.  You see the spectacular devastation of the areas hardest hit and assume that's the majority of places, but it's not; it's media selection bias.

Contrast with the eye wall of a hurricane - of this force - which will wipe out almost everything; leaving almost no structure at least undamaged, and completely destroying a high percentage.

Part of the reason I say that is due to the poverty of Jamaica - they just don't have the hurricane wind standards that the US does.

(Just to reiterate - not trying to understate the fact that there will be massive rain-flood damage; I'm just asserting that I think the wind damage will likely be worse, along with the storm surge flooding.)

We’ll see. There has been video of catastrophic floodwaters coming off the mountains this afternoon in many places in Jamaica including Mandeville.

 Hurricane Mitch, the 2nd deadliest Atlantic basin hurricane on record, caused 11-18K fatalities, mainly from catastrophic flooding and landslides due to epic rainfall amounts.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

OK then follow-up - why would non-straight-line winds be more destructive than straight-line?   Same force isn't it?

Perhaps it's that tornadoes' winds tend to swirl upward, and thus tend to lift more debris, than hurricane winds?

You're on the right track, I think.

Both tornados and hurricanes exhibit vorticity and wind(a vector quantity). The big difference is the scale, but at a given point the wind velocity is what it is in both cases. Now consider the vorticity and lift. Much of the extreme damage we see in a tornado results from the(straight line) wind at a point PLUS the very strong localized lift within the more localized vorticity- an intense localized suction vortex. This produces the forces we see in videos that dramatically rips off roofs and uproots trees while lifting the debris rapidly upwards. Tornados are more intense, or 'violent' in a much more localized area.

[Normandy Ho]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You're on the right track, I think.

Both tornados and hurricanes exhibit vorticity and wind(a vector quantity). The big difference is the scale, but at a given point the wind velocity is what it is in both cases. Now consider the vorticity and lift. Much of the extreme damage we see in a tornado results from the(straight line) wind at a point PLUS the very strong localized lift within the more localized vorticity- an intense localized suction vortex. This produces the forces we see in videos that dramatically rips off roofs and uproots trees while lifting the debris rapidly upwards. Tornados are more intense, or 'violent' in a much more localized area.

This.  The main difference between them is size

[WolfStock1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

We’ll see. There has been video of catastrophic floodwaters coming off the mountains this afternoon in many places in Jamaica including Mandeville.

 Hurricane Mitch, the 2nd deadliest Atlantic basin hurricane on record, caused 11-18K fatalities, mainly from catastrophic flooding and landslides due to epic rainfall amounts.

 

Well - Mitch made landfall with 80 mph winds; Melissa of course was over double that.   Orders of magnitude more damage from 180 mph wind.

[str8liner]

14 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

She lost her eye  

 

She is not a big fan of vacuum cleaning Jamaica it appears. Much happier vacuuming the ocean.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Scott747 said:

This is total bs.

You won't find one video of any chaser standing directly in legit sustained major hurricane/typhoon winds.

True.  The far longer lead time allows for 'cane chasers to find a safer spot.  Josh picked the most solid-looking building at the north end of Great Abaco Island for Dorian and caught some amazing video of the front end.  That "solid" building was badly damaged, and he (and others in that building) relocated during the eye.

Tornado chasers are usually in vehicles and have minutes, or even seconds, to choose their spots.

[smokeybandit]

I'm impressed how many of the Jamaica webcams are still online.

[WxWatcher007]

The center is starting to or will imminently emerge back over the Caribbean. Clearly, the trek over Jamaica has disrupted the structure. 

I'll note however that there is still very strong outflow evident in all quadrants, deep convection surrounding the center, and relatively low wind shear. The radar that @klw is useful to an extent in showing the degradation of the inner core but given the factors I just mentioned we should watch what happens in the coming hours as this fully emerges and has time to potentially reorganize. 

[WxWatcher007]

The next recon flight is in the air and will be able to sample Melissa a bit after it emerges from land. 

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I'm impressed how many of the Jamaica webcams are still online.

Better electric infrastructure than my town. Power goes out here in a 25 mph breeze

[clskinsfan]

https://x.com/yungsenshi/status/1983240559067013254

[GaWx]

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
...CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
JAMAICA...
...DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

[NJwx85]

Nova Scotia better watch out. Lots of guidance tracks this very close to Atlantic Canada in about 96hrs. This after hits on Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda likely.

[gallopinggertie]

The good news for Cuba is the forecast has shifted west, the NHC track now shows a landfall about 55 miles west of Santiago de Cuba, on a stretch of coast where hardly anyone lives. 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure
near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over
the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some
warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the
initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information
on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while
Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded
in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to
determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic
hurricanes.
 
The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this
should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight
or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the
northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday
night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly
northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope
has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h
since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this
time is also shifted a little to the north and west.
 
While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will 
probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due 
to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level 
wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before
Melissa reaches Cuba.  After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter
increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual
weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane
strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model
guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 18.5N  77.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.9N  76.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 22.2N  75.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 25.0N  73.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 28.9N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 33.8N  64.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 39.0N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 48.4N  42.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 54.8N  25.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

[NJwx85]

Has anyone heard from Josh since LF? His last tweet was about 5 hrs ago before the worst hit.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Has anyone heard from Josh since LF? His last tweet was about 5 hrs ago before the worst hit.

I haven’t but in the past in very strong storms, he’s gone many hours with no posts once a storm has hit. It may not be til tomorrow or later for the next post for all we know.

[WxWatcher007]

Landfall expected around 2am. Not a ton of time to reorganize and intensify, but we’ll see what recon finds. 

[olafminesaw]

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983245789158642173

 

 

[klw]

Looks like storms are firing on the east side of the core again.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop90.html

 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983245789158642173

 

 

 That’s what I was referring to earlier regarding catastrophic flash flooding coming off the mountains. Jeff P. on his live feed first alerted me to this. I greatly fear the casualties this may cause. I hope it’s not anything like Mitch, which had a death toll of 11-18K mainly due to this. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

It is bitter sweet watching the eye collapse right in front of our eyes.

Not a surprise given how high some of those mountains are in Jamaica. They do a number on any tropical system. But the eye is about to hit the water again, so time will tell if if re-strengthens once it hits the bathwater temps north of Jamaica

[NJwx85]

The motion looks almost Easterly right now. That would prolong time over water. The core appears to be mostly intact, at least based on IR.