WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 02:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:45 PM 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: yeah but a good chunk of the country is well above sea level, so those higher gusts will mix in. But yeah - I feel like concrete construction is more common in the Caribbean and Latin America - problem is there are plenty of people who do not live in well built structures. The idea that we're seriously talking about gusts over 200 speaks to the exceptional power of this storm. Most people don't fully comprehend how strong that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted yesterday at 02:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:45 PM That 50 mile wide swath of the eyewall will carve a path through the island unlike we've seen before. I bet satellite pictures in a few days will show it almost like a tornado path. Will be sad. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted yesterday at 02:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:46 PM Just for the posterity because I haven't seen the full statement posted yet... "Last chance to protect your life." Quote Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA... ...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE... ...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, and loss of life. Residents in Jamaica that experience the eye should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft find that Melissa continues to strengthen with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).The minimum central pressure has fallen to 892 mb (26.34 inches) based on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted yesterday at 02:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:47 PM Land fall during the day is going to give us some remarkable footage on top of everything else and will hopefully help even just a little bit those have to go through this horrible storm. It’s already going to be terrifying, can’t imagine going through it in the dark. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted yesterday at 02:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:48 PM 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The idea that we're seriously talking about gusts over 200 speaks to the exceptional power of this storm. Most people don't fully comprehend how strong that is. i mean it's basically impossible to describe. Maybe folks get descriptions like - it literally strips the bark off of trees, or it completely defoliates healthy trees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Does Josh morgerman have a live feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Jeff piotrowski live: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM 1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said: Does Josh morgerman have a live feed Josh doesn't do live streams. He should have good video afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM Wow, she's really gunning for the Labor Day storm's landfall pressure and wind records... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM 11am update still 185mph, 892mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Camaguey. The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb (26.34 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the eyewall. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Damn near a complete white out the stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Montego Bay and Falmouth on the north coast look screwed too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Damn near a complete white out the stream. That stream looks intense, and they're likely a bit east of the strongest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Josh doesn't do live streams. He should have good video afterward. Man it is SO hard to do a live stream in a storm. You're in full sensory overload in these things and trying not to get hit by debris, not to mention dealing with loss of signal/service. Respect to the people that are able to get out a live stream. They earn their keep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM As far as the buildings with concrete walls/ISO-2 builds, that will help, however, the main problem are the points of failure. In this case it will be the roof and without that lateral assistance to help the load bearing walls stay together, you risk implosion essentially. When buildings are constructed, part of the structural integrity comes from the roof tying the load bearing walls together. Combine that with the fact that the ground level pressure is so low while the winds create a potential pressure above 1000 mb inside the house due to the constraints of the winds inside such a small space and there is a strong likelihood that even the concrete wall buildings simply implode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Jeff piotrowski live: Yeah he's pretty far from the eye though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM looks like locations right on the shore are about to enter the eye. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM 27 minutes ago, Scott747 said: Not going to lie. In all these years I've never been worried about Josh. A few when he has relocated to at the last minute to some spots that weren't previously scouted. This one I'm on edge. Little nervous about the elevation.... I used to see Josh once a year when he first started for about 3 years. Also remember one video particularly in a school where they located correctly as the opposite end of the building was destroyed. Another pushing a handicapped lady through a flooded hotel lobby I think on a mattress. Tell him Weather 53 says be safe and well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM 19 minutes ago, MANDA said: That's gotta be getting close - or is actually a record measurement in the Atlantic. Unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM Eye is about to be directly over Josh. He couldn’t have positioned himself better to get the dead center of this storm 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Eye is about to be directly over Josh. He couldn’t have positioned himself better to get the dead center of this storm dude is the GOAT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Mahomes Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 PM check out the Treasure Beach live stream right now, dayum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM Prayers for the Jamaican people. Absolutely perfect storm, but when I watch the sat image, I also know death, and devastation are underway. My heart breaks for the people. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM either my wifi has totally dropped or the cam finally went down... ETA: back a couple min later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM 5 minutes ago, Ace Mahomes said: check out the Treasure Beach live stream right now, dayum link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Just now, eyewall said: link? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Just now, eyewall said: link? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2HfoQ_HMfY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM Topographical Map of western Jamaica 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM the roar/screech of the wind on that stream is unearthly. add in the occasional crash of debris and its straight nightmare fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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