"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.

[MANDA]

WPC has notably beefed up totals further north and more inland with the latest issuance.

[MJO812]

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for the winter.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

A bit tongue in cheek on my part. And I usually mean it only for gusts. 

 

The myth about wind underperforming really only applies away from the island/coast. We’ve had many wind events verify out here, while inland it is tame. Sure, some events bust, but I’m fully expecting 45 mph gusts at my house and gusts to 50-55 at the beaches 

[wdrag]

Still MUCH time for adjustments.  The ensembles are all damped out out with variable solutions so believing an op cycle straightforward is not recommended.

The EC OP is in the high end impact group with almost an eye circulation off Cape May come late Monday but for now, in the back of my mind but not barking it as the more likely solution.

Someone mentioned the deformation zone as a potential area of concern for surprise high amounts. I am in agreement.  Therefore am thinking along and north of the eventual 8H-7H circulation will be large, which eventually favors much of our area, especially NNJ-LI and not a big trim in s CT. Evolution uncertainty. Not upgrading to spot 6" amount in NNJ (Ocean County northwestward) but monitoring circulation development and staying as initially posted last several days and in this thread last evening. LONG ways away. 

Added 12z/9 NYHOPS tidal expectation at Sandy Hook as an example. The outlier is MAJOR.  the more likely scenario at this 3-4 day juncture is MDT for at least one cycle at Sandy Hook, as exampled.  Recent water level bias has been a couple inches one the low side of reality, from what I can tell. 

Checking back later this evening or tomorrow morning. 

[psv88]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ANZ335&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=11NM SE Stamford CT&product1=Storm+Watch&lat=40.977&lon=-73.372
 

storm watch for the sound, waves 6-9 feet into the western sound. You don’t see that very often. 

[wdrag]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The myth about wind underperforming really only applies away from the island/coast. We’ve had many wind events verify out here, while inland it is tame. Sure, some events bust, but I’m fully expecting 45 mph gusts at my house and gusts to 50-55 at the beaches 

Following up on your post: I took a look at SST anomaly at 12z/9 this morning. VERY warm departures and water temps right now SDHook, Entrance to NY Harbor around 68.  I think we're talking fairly steep lapse rates in the BL Sunday-Monday permitting pretty decent downward transfer of gusts. Two graphics attached.  Surface temps should be in the range of 57-63F on the NJ coast and probably LI north shore as well 18z Sun-18z Mon. That is cooler than the SST.  Using 12z EC OP model sounding - I see what appears to me a fairly unstable lowest 50 MB.  That is only the 12z/9 EC OP.  (did not attach the sounding-its predictive and still 72-96 hours distant). 

We'll see how intense the wind fields evolve etc but needs to be monitored for watch/warn process and resultant water and power outage situation on the coasts. No coastal hugger, much less impact. 

[Sundog]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The myth about wind underperforming really only applies away from the island/coast. We’ve had many wind events verify out here, while inland it is tame. Sure, some events bust, but I’m fully expecting 45 mph gusts at my house and gusts to 50-55 at the beaches 

Those numbers for your area  are reasonable 

[Stormlover74]

Its the long range rgem but its mostly a 95 east heavy rain event

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Those numbers for your area  are reasonable 

I'm thinking it's a 60 mph gust event

 

[mob1]

This would be fun

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

along with some of those precip amounts - this storm center will have a hard time getting past the Del Marva and will probably spin itself out because of the HP blocking it.........

this would be great for a winter storm track

[NEG NAO]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this would be great for a winter storm track

Problem is the cold enough air for snow would not stay locked in with a track coming onshore into the Del Marva especially for areas south of I -80............that would be a snow to rain track for NYC

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Problem is the cold enough air for snow would not stay locked in with a track coming onshore into the Del Marva especially for areas south of I -80............that would be a snow to rain track for NYC

Yes but then it would change back to snow as the ULL pulls away on Monday after a dry slot Sunday night. This system is reminiscent of March 2010.

[NJwx85]

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS is suggesting a dry slot developing as the storm spins around the Del Marva Sunday night - also I think WPC's total precip is taking into account another precip event later next week

I decided to cancel my trip. Too big a chance of rain on Saturday and rain and wind come in early Sunday.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ANZ335&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=11NM SE Stamford CT&product1=Storm+Watch&lat=40.977&lon=-73.372
 

storm watch for the sound, waves 6-9 feet into the western sound. You don’t see that very often. 

wow.....i was thinking to sneak out tomorrow before the storm, 5-10 northeast...now i'm reading 10 and then southeast....i'm not getting suckered again, it's lonely out there this time of the year. looked at the party boats, they reported a  'solid pick ' in other words not that great. not spending a fortune to go out there. hate to see the season end so early. it's a long time til may. you get 6-9 rollers in the sound whatever fish are around are going to head to sea. i don't remember these early storms back in the day; we had a nice long fall season. now we get these offshore storms back to back and then go into coastal rains. we used to actually have winter fisheries, whiting, mackerel. all gone. so, time to start thinking about winter, hope its not a boring one.....

[weatherpruf]

41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes but then it would change back to snow as the ULL pulls away on Monday after a dry slot Sunday night. This system is reminiscent of March 2010.

that was all rain. i remember it. perhaps you mean late feb?

[Stormlover74]

Euro continues to show a mostly dry Sunday but very wet overnight and Monday. Also has some rain Saturday afternoon

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro continues to show a mostly dry Sunday but very wet overnight and Monday. Also has some rain Saturday afternoon

18z EURO AI is much better than 12z, it's no longer a total miss initially, now a lot of us get rain right from the get go instead of hoping for a move west off the ocean. 

[Sundog]

Nice shift west on the AI:

[wthrmn654]

Nws model blend raised the totals area wide earlier. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes but then it would change back to snow as the ULL pulls away on Monday after a dry slot Sunday night. This system is reminiscent of March 2010.

But this storm is not going to have a classic nor'easter path. It will only get so far north, before heading back south southeast, with no cold air having the ability to come in, even in the heart of winter.

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

wow.....i was thinking to sneak out tomorrow before the storm, 5-10 northeast...now i'm reading 10 and then southeast....i'm not getting suckered again, it's lonely out there this time of the year. looked at the party boats, they reported a  'solid pick ' in other words not that great. not spending a fortune to go out there. hate to see the season end so early. it's a long time til may. you get 6-9 rollers in the sound whatever fish are around are going to head to sea. i don't remember these early storms back in the day; we had a nice long fall season. now we get these offshore storms back to back and then go into coastal rains. we used to actually have winter fisheries, whiting, mackerel. all gone. so, time to start thinking about winter, hope its not a boring one.....

Those wouldn’t be rollers either…short wave intervals. Nasty stuff that can sink even larger boats (over 30 feet)

[weatherpruf]

22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Those wouldn’t be rollers either…short wave intervals. Nasty stuff that can sink even larger boats (over 30 feet)

i'm old enough to remember the edmund fitzgerald loss in lake superior....35 foot waves at one point, with computer simulations showing some 46 foot waves.....she either got swamped or had a structural failure. a sister ship reported a " three sisters" set of waves that passed over them and headed in the fitzgerald's direction....3-4 foot  is enough to scare me....raritan bay gets those short chops and we got stuck in one last summer during a thunderstorm, went from flat to evil in about 10 minutes. i'm getting too old for that.....the local captains seem worried about this storm. that should tell us something.

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

i'm old enough to remember the edmund fitzgerald loss in lake superior....35 foot waves at one point, with computer simulations showing some 46 foot waves.....she either got swamped or had a structural failure. a sister ship reported a " three sisters" set of waves that passed over them and headed in the fitzgerald's direction....3-4 foot  is enough to scare me....raritan bay gets those short chops and we got stuck in one last summer during a thunderstorm, went from flat to evil in about 10 minutes. i'm getting too old for that.....the local captains seem worried about this storm. that should tell us something.

 

My next boat is a sailboat. I grew up on one and I miss being able to be out in 5-6 footers no problem. Powerboats get dicey over 3-4 feet. 

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My next boat is a sailboat. I grew up on one and I miss being able to be out in 5-6 footers no problem. Powerboats get dicey over 3-4 feet. 

there's always a power sailer......sailing ain't my thing, and i wouldn't ever step on a boat at all if i could catch enough fish from shore. up in maine i can, and do, right from the dock. tried taking a canoe out. well, you should learn how to do it before you try. thank god the water was warm.....

[dseagull]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

wow.....i was thinking to sneak out tomorrow before the storm, 5-10 northeast...now i'm reading 10 and then southeast....i'm not getting suckered again, it's lonely out there this time of the year. looked at the party boats, they reported a  'solid pick ' in other words not that great. not spending a fortune to go out there. hate to see the season end so early. it's a long time til may. you get 6-9 rollers in the sound whatever fish are around are going to head to sea. i don't remember these early storms back in the day; we had a nice long fall season. now we get these offshore storms back to back and then go into coastal rains. we used to actually have winter fisheries, whiting, mackerel. all gone. so, time to start thinking about winter, hope its not a boring one.....

I run charters from barnegat.  Been doing so for almost 4 decades.   It's cyclical, for sure.   

[dseagull]

7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

those dunes they created on some of the beaches in NJ after Sandy will be tested  during this storm because of the added King Tides thing and the Moon thing adding to the levels.........

We are now 4 days off of a moon, and will ne even further as we approach neap tides.  

[TJW014]

45 minutes ago, dseagull said:

We are now 4 days off of a moon, and will ne even further as we approach neap tides.  

Still an onshore wind has been blowing for the last few days and will continue to do so as this system makes it's way here. Plenty of water already piled up along the coast. 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes but then it would change back to snow as the ULL pulls away on Monday after a dry slot Sunday night. This system is reminiscent of March 2010.

Backside snow in NYC? Like betting on the mets in the 8th. Come on

[wthrmn654]

Montauk early forecast, if it's nearly moderate at montauk it's going be way worse further west.