"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.

[NJwx85]

The 12z GGEM looks similar to the GFS from what I can tell.

[mob1]

Euro has precious little precipitation for much of Connecticut. Kind of hits a wall NE of here.

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro's a big hit

Yep but different than GFS. GFS gives us our heavier rain Sunday morning to early afternoon, and then lighter rain after that. Euro just brushes us with a little light rain during the day Sunday, and waits until Sunday night to bring in the heavy rain. Obviously we have a long way to go to figure out the details. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yep but different than GFS. GFS gives us our heavier rain Sunday morning to early afternoon, and then lighter rain after that. Euro just brushes us with a little light rain during the day Sunday, and waits until Sunday night to bring in the heavy rain. Obviously we have a long way to go to figure out the details. 

That's typical. Euro always seems to be slower

[mob1]

I'd love to see the weenie gust maps for this. 

[wthrmn654]

Cmc isn't running on most sites since yesterday for some reason

[wthrmn654]

Wind watches just went up.  Unless I'm mistaken, pretty early to be doing watches or have i lost touch with criteria??

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Cmc isn't running on most sites since yesterday for some reason

Weatherbell has it but it's pay

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Wind watches just went up

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

NYZ075-078>081-176>179-100200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.251019T1600Z-251020T1000Z/
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest
Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19 TO MONDAY,
OCTOBER 20...

* WHAT...Wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Kings (Brooklyn), Northeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau,
  Northern Queens, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Southern
  Nassau, Southern Queens, and Southwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday, October 19 to Monday, October 20.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I'd love to see the weenie gust maps for this. 

[uofmiami]

Here's the weenie WxBell gust swath map:

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Here's the weenie WxBell gust swath map:

Honestly, that doesn't look all that out of line imo.

 

Edit: didn't see the 72 on jersey lol minus that one of course

[NJwx85]

Not much of an inversion showing up, at least not on the GFS soundings. Should be quite gusty, especially due to tighter pressure gradient in proximity to the high.

[NEG NAO]

the Euro AI is probably closer to reality with amounts

[psv88]

Marina sent out a notice to secure all boats etc. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Honestly, that doesn't look all that out of line imo.

 

Edit: didn't see the 72 on jersey lol minus that one of course

those dunes they created on some of the beaches in NJ after Sandy will be tested  during this storm because of the added King Tides thing and the Moon thing adding to the levels.........

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Marina sent out a notice to secure all boats etc. 

Aren't most dry docked at this point?  Recreational boating season, except for those fishing, is over I would think.

[bluewave]

Low end major coastal flooding potential showing up for back bays with a surge forecast approaching 4 feet.  
 

https://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/

[Brian5671]

One thing to keep in mind is that model wind maps are more often than not overdone...I usually deduct 25%

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that model wind maps are more often than not overdone...I usually deduct 25%

along with some of those precip amounts - this storm center will have a hard time getting past the Del Marva and will probably spin itself out because of the HP blocking it.........

[TJW014]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Low end major coastal flooding potential showing up for back bays with a surge forecast approaching 4 feet.  
 

https://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/d/index.shtml?station=U225

$73 million beach replenishment in Northern Ocean County is about to say bye-bye

[wthrmn654]

Coastal flood watches up

[steve392]

The flooding from the winds shoving everything up ny harbor into the rivers is going to be horrible.  I've already got river flooding at high tide today. 

[wthrmn654]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that model wind maps are more often than not overdone...I usually deduct 25%

Wind maps are usually fairly close for coastal areas.. anywhere away from coast is a coin toss unless good mixing is achieved

[Sundog]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that model wind maps are more often than not overdone...I usually deduct 25%

I deduct closer to 50

[psv88]

24 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Aren't most dry docked at this point?  Recreational boating season, except for those fishing, is over I would think.

As of last weekend I’d say about 70% of the boats at my marina were still in. This week is a big week for boats to be pulled though. October 15 a big cut off. 
 

mine is coming out first week in November 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I deduct closer to 50

50% is too much. That would mean winds don’t exceed 25 mph. 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

50% is too much. That would mean winds don’t exceed 25 mph. 

A bit tongue in cheek on my part. And I usually mean it only for gusts. 

 

[MANDA]

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that model wind maps are more often than not overdone...I usually deduct 25%

In this case the coast of NJ / SLI could get close to those numbers.  Don't think my area gusts to 50 mph as depicted though.

Big story with this is going to be the coastal impacts.  No joke with a solid 3 high tide cycles with strong onshore flow.  Esp. NJ and to a lesser extent on the LI Sound.

Moderate to major impacts NJ shore and minor to moderate on the sound.  Going to be a costly event I think.  Many homes ocean front and bays were raised or rebuilt on stilts so that will make it better than it would have been.

[the_other_guy]

44 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Aren't most dry docked at this point?  Recreational boating season, except for those fishing, is over I would think.

Not yet. Another few weeks