donsutherland1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: whats the latest that either or both had 4 consecutive 80 degree highs Don? I noticed the records for the date were from 1944 and 1949, both years had endless summers. Central Park: October 11-14, 1954 Newark: October 15-18, 1908 Both Simultaneously: October 11-14, 1954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Nice to see the 12z CMC finally come on board with a more NW phase and closer to coast surface low. https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html why no Canadian model runs on Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Models have rain moving in just after midnight Sunday now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: NYC adjusted upward? The evening news said the high at NYC was 79 No adjustment. The high of 80 occurred early in the afternoon. The station never checked the preliminary climate report before going on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago models showing up to 5 inches of rain for the central/south NJ Shore, 1-3 elsewhere with less far north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Beneficial rains on the 12z Euro. Maybe for once we can get a short term NW trend next few days. That way the heaviest axis of rain could shift from CNJ to NYC to Southern CT And LI. But I will take any prolonged soaking rains I can get at this point. Glad to see the coastal storm track showing more life than we have seen in over a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 12z Euro AI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago closely monitoring this weekend system. Beaches for the most part up in Northern Ocean/Monmouth survived the offshore hurricanes quite well. The spring/summer replenishment from Lavallette to Bay Head held as well. I would be concerned about unprotected beaches like Belmar/Avon/Asbury Park if this holds. Will Walt be starting a thread on this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: closely monitoring this weekend system. Beaches for the most part up in Northern Ocean/Monmouth survived the offshore hurricanes quite well. The spring/summer replenishment from Lavallette to Bay Head held as well. I would be concerned about unprotected beaches like Belmar/Avon/Asbury Park if this holds. Will Walt be starting a thread on this? 12z Euro has 60mph+ gusts on Jersey Shore from Sunday into Monday. Implied storm surge currently 2-4 feet. On top of astronomical tides would yield widespread moderate coastal flooding at times of high tides with a chance low end major levels could be reached. Will depend on the exact track and duration of strongest onshore winds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, bluewave said: 12z Euro has 60mph+ gusts on Jersey Shore from Sunday into Monday. Implied storm surge currently 2-4 feet. On top of astronomical tides would yield widespread moderate coastal flooding at times of high tides with a chance low end major levels could be reached. Will depend on the exact track and duration of strongest onshore winds. Inland track could be devastating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 43 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: closely monitoring this weekend system. Beaches for the most part up in Northern Ocean/Monmouth survived the offshore hurricanes quite well. The spring/summer replenishment from Lavallette to Bay Head held as well. I would be concerned about unprotected beaches like Belmar/Avon/Asbury Park if this holds. Will Walt be starting a thread on this? Yes... I want to do some outside work while still daylight but all ensembles now on board, despite the 12z/8 CMCE OP OTS. widespread wind driven 1", iso MAX 4 12z Sun-12z Tue G 50-60 Mph LI NJ coasts, beach erosion, multiple cycles of at least MINOR CF, with potential for major NJ coast Sun and Mon highest tide cycles. Probably start it around 8P. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (2007) NYC: 87 (2007) LGA: 89 (2007) JFK: 90 (2007) Lows: EWR: 32 (1935) NYC: 37 (1988) LGA: 40 (1988) JFK: 40 (2001) Historical: 1871 - Prolonged drought and dessicating winds led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1871: The Great Chicago Fire burns much of the city to the ground, fanned by strong southwest winds. An estimated 250 were killed. On the same night, forest fires swept through Peshtigo, Wisconsin. An estimated 1,500 to possibly as many as 2,500 dies as gale-force winds push flames across town. Severe drought blamed for tinder-dry conditions. 1878: An estimated F3 tornado struck Monticello, Iowa, around 5:30 pm. The Catholic Church was demolished, along with several homes. The business portion of the town was comparatively uninjured. While no lives were lost, 11 people were injured. The German Church in Richland township was destroyed, along with other buildings in the surrounding county. A wind and hail storm occurred during the evening hours in Sigourney, Iowa, causing considerable damage. Fences and shade trees were blown down, and much glass was broken by hail, which fell in large stones. 1901 - A deluge at Galveston, TX, produced nearly twelve inches of rain in about a six hour period. The rains came precisely thirteen months after the day of the famous Galveston hurricane disaster. (David Ludlum) 1919: An intense tornado moved through the town of Hoisington, 11 miles north of Great Bend, Kansas. It damaged or destroyed 60 homes which resulted in $200,000 in damages. Business papers and canceled checks were found at Lincoln, 55 miles to the northeast. 1946: A minimal Category 1 hurricane made landfall over Bradenton, Florida, before tracking north-northeast across Tampa Bay. The storm was the last hurricane to make direct landfall in the Tampa Bay area. 1982 - An unusually early snowstorm hit the northern Black Hills of Wyoming and South Dakota. The storm produced up to 54 inches of snow, and winds as high as 70 mph. The snowfall was very much dependent upon topography. Rapid City, 20 miles away, received just a trace of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the southeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 22 degrees. The low of 28 degrees at Evansville IN was the coolest of record for so early in the season. Hot weather continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Tucson AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100 degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Snow was reported across parts of northern New England. Two inches blanketed Mount Snow VT. Warm weather continued in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning lows in the 20s were reported from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. International Falls MN and Marquette MI reported record lows of 22 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in central California as the Oakland Athletics won the American League pennant. San Luis Obispo CA reported a high of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Eps is amped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is amped Mixing issues for the coast verbatim 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago This one will be fun to track. Quickly trying to get my beach profile research data collected and finished up before this one hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Nice drink. .62 although that was a bit of an outlier around my area with alot of places between .3-.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago .54 here to green up the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Mixing issues for the coast verbatim you can pack your rods up for the winter after this one. unless you striper fish. anything inshore isn't hanging around after this. will bring in a ton of spiny dogfish though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Mixing issues for the coast verbatim can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago the S/W becoming more amplified over WI leads to increased phasing down the line. the entire tilt of the trough is more negative as a result, leading to a much more tucked and amplified system. this is a solid example of looking at 500mb ensemble trends to see how phasing impacts storm track. with all major ensembles on board inside of D5 (CMC was holding out a bit yesterday and this morning), confidence in this system making significant impacts is a good bit higher 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago You should see the difference between the 12z EURO AI and the latest 18z run lolol a worthy successor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Sundog said: You should see the difference between the 12z EURO AI and the latest 18z run lolol a worthy successor There's still time for this to miss but yeah that's likely wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 38 minutes ago, Sundog said: South trend begins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: There's still time for this to miss but yeah that's likely wrong Can easily miss south, this was consensus yday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: South trend begins What trend? Stop trolling already. Its not even winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Does anyone have the regular 18z EURO? Was that a severe change from 12z as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I mean, we've been stuck in this pattern of things being suppressed south this time last year through winter. Same thing so far late summer/autumn. Patterns don't like breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago A shot of much cooler air is moving into the region. Central Park will likely see its first lows in the 40s this season either tomorrow morning or Friday morning. Temperatures will moderate during the weekend. A potential nor'easter will need to be watched for late in the weekend to early next week. This storm could bring some periods of rain and gusty winds to parts of the region, with the highest rainfall amounts and strongest gusts likely for the Jersey Shore and parts of Long Island. Coastal flooding is possible. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +4.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.649 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Sundog said: Does anyone have the regular 18z EURO? Was that a severe change from 12z as well? No it got slightly wetter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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