Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Both ops kick Melissa with a very strong coastal low. Sub 980mb on both the GFS and Euro verbatim. 

ensembles are very interesting..  GEFS, EPS, FNV3, and GENC all have members turning in and hitting now

[CoastalWx]

Think she gone. Not much clustering to show anything interesting. A few AI members?

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Think she gone. Not much clustering to show anything interesting. A few AI members?

a few EPS 

[ineedsnow]

Either way.. odds increasing for a big storm at the end of the week

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

a few EPS 

Looks gone there.

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks gone there.

She's gone. 

[Chrisrotary12]

We’d be better off if Melissa didn’t exist and let the trough work on its own.

[SouthCoastMA]

always a long shot to pull in Melissa..maybe still a coastal

[dendrite]

Hopefully that gut feeling someone had last night wasn’t baked bean related. 

[jsw]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

a few EPS 

Waves.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully that gut feeling someone had last night wasn’t baked bean related. 

Disappointment in Tolland

[CoastalWx]

Euro was a pretty nasty coastal.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro was a pretty nasty coastal.

Almost every eps member at 6z is west of the op for melissa.. coastal looks to be a given

[jbenedet]

The 6z GEFS was a pretty sizable shift towards the EPS with higher mid level heights over the western Atlantic .

[jbenedet]

The NHC also isn’t biting on the quick escape east track for Melissa. 
 

Right now, if Melissa misses it appears consensus is because of a poor phasing; and not the GFS scenario.

[Typhoon Tip]

echoing the general sentiment...  but, TC entanglement was never likely.  It was in fact unlikely (... but even a long shot can give the addicts a dopamine pop.  Ha ha). The emerging consensus explains why that is. No issues with letting that go. 

With that said,  there is still a signal for an EC impact/ Nor'easter, regardless of those noisy GGEM solutions.  Mainly upper M/A and NE this go.  

In fact, the GGEM got hugely distracted somehow and ventured off from ... every form of modelling technology I can find last night and isn't used. Wildly divorced from consensus.  Meanwhile, the GFS and Euro being well below 980 mb under deep forcing kinematics, fits both ens means, and the numerical telecon deltas.  Circumstantially, whilst there's lingering +PP hanging over N of Maine like that. Heh, bit of a high surf/coastal flood enthusiasts 'wet' dream (see what I did there)  Also, a lot of rain over terrain enhancing along the inevitable CCB axis. Kind of a 'scary' setting for Halloween

 

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro was a pretty nasty coastal.

She gone but not the coastal. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Another boring coastal . Awesome 

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

ensembles are very interesting..  GEFS, EPS, FNV3, and GENC all have members turning in and hitting now

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Think she gone. Not much clustering to show anything interesting. A few AI members?

Lmao….one says interesting, one says gone. Nothing like seeing ENTIRELY different things. 

Just give us a good nor’easter…to heck with Melissa. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Another boring coastal . Awesome 

You f’ed it up with your blow down BS yesterday.  That’s the kiss of death for sure. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another boring coastal . Awesome 

You wouldn’t be saying that a month from now… 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another boring coastal . Awesome 

Its October 

Enjoy the rain and wind

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its October 

Enjoy the rain and wind

What wind 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What wind 

Nor’easters always come with some wind, just not the blow downs that are called for. As it draws closer, you’ll start pumping the wind. 

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another boring coastal . Awesome 

I'll ask mother nature if she can unleash the winds of death right over your neighborhood. Flatline every tree and wire all around you.

[SouthCoastMA]

if I lived inland I would definitely be bored by most nor'easters. Unless it was anomalous in some capacity

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro was a pretty nasty coastal.

There would be much excitement if this were another 4-6 weeks out.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

if I lived inland I would definitely be bored by most nor'easters. Unless it was anomalous in some capacity

Yeah Tame in Tolland.

[dryslot]

20-30 mph w/G40, Pretty mundane stuff, Just like the fact of seeing coastals appear heading into novie.

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Think she gone. Not much clustering to show anything interesting. A few AI members?

 

2 hours ago, CT Rain said:

She's gone.