Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Whimper

Rainer to Mainer. Common storm track this winter?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rainer to Mainer. Common storm track this winter?

I’m hoping I’ve already seen my coldest temp of the winter.

[alex]

A few flakes here mixed with rain. Accumulating at the cog base station. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I’m hoping I’ve already seen my coldest temp of the winter.

At this point I’m wondering if I make it to Tgiving with no freeze. Nov doesn’t look chilly 

[jbenedet]

Running out of time for big changes but for a big impact out of Melissa in our region need to see the shortwave out of western Canada hookup with the low over the southeast around this hour. A trend to see the former speed up and the latter slow down, must persist from here on out. It’s not unusual in significant-NAO regimes for this to occur but the current model consensus gives it very low odds.

We watch.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

BN patterns like this which yield near normal temps just brings home how much more needs to go right for accumulating snow chances.
 

Also that these persistent Fall -NAO regimes help to torch our cold source regions in eastern Canada as we move into winter…Hudson Bay, Bay of Fundy, Gulf of St Lawrence….

 

I wonder how warm we can get the arctic ocean in the summer once it finally goes ice free.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At this point I’m wondering if I make it to Tgiving with no freeze. Nov doesn’t look chilly 

Yeah I don’t think you technically go below freezing at 2m on the euro or gfs. You’ll sneak one in I bet within 2 weeks though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It will fuck up Halloween. 

GWDHTGOCA 

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder how warm we can get the arctic ocean in the summer once it finally goes ice free.

Will be an interesting real time human experiment.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Running out of time for big changes but for a big impact out of Melissa in our region need to see the shortwave out of western Canada hookup with the low over the southeast around this hour. A trend to see the former speed up and the latter slow down, must persist from here on out. It’s not unusual in significant-NAO regimes for this to occur but the current model consensus gives it very low odds.

We watch.

Ineedsnow, is that you again?? 

[jbenedet]

The 6z EPS definitely has a look that midcoast to downeast Maine need to watch for more than subtle/indirect impacts from Melissa.

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It will fuck up Halloween. 

Uhg!       Let’s hope we can at least salvage the weekend.  

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Will be an interesting real time human experiment.

Ice generally needs a below freezing nucleus to form on so when that ice free day comes, we’ll have to refreeze the arctic from the outside-in which I would think would really slow refreeze up. As long as we have some slabs floating mid-ocean we can refreeze around those areas. The longer it’s open the more we’ll keep the moisture and heat flux going up there which will really hurt the source region for early winter. 

[dendrite]

35.6° for the min this morning…may go the next week without going below freezing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The pattern ahead blows for any cold or early wintry chances. Nothing but puke Pacific air. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The pattern ahead blows for any cold or early wintry chances. Nothing but puke Pacific air. 

It’s Halloween so who really cares. We’re just getting into graupel shower season. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah meh

I can’t do this again. We just started going from drought to active, and the storms are already deamplifying and cutting. I’ll leave my family. I’ll sell my house and live with the moose at Fort Kent. I won’t do another sub 20” winter that people pretend isn’t a rat because January was -1.1°. I just can’t do it. 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At this point I’m wondering if I make it to Tgiving with no freeze. Nov doesn’t look chilly 

Sell.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The ‘ ‘s  look like they’re going to come early and often this year.  
 

[WinterWolf]

Lol, worrying about an ice free arctic, and puke pacific air on 10/26…what Foolish talk.  Gorgeous autumn weather..that is perfectly seasonal…that’s the good news. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol, worrying about an ice free arctic, and puke pacific air on 10/26…what Foolish talk.  

Haha, I appreciate you staying on brand.  There could be 500 million acres of lava in the Arctic and the answer would be “let’s see if it’s still burning in a week, we just don’t know what’ll happen.”

[Snowcrazed71]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The pattern ahead blows for any cold or early wintry chances. Nothing but puke Pacific air. 

And where might I ask are you coming up with that forecast? 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The ‘ ‘s  look like they’re going to come early and often this year.  
 

The first time we go through the ole epic pattern to cutter cycle in December, we’ll see quite a show.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The first time we go through the ole epic pattern to cutter cycle in December, we’ll see quite a show.

I mean, you’re not wrong. 

[jbenedet]

Still a ton of run to run changes happening across guidance inside 3 days out on the large scale mid level features.

[WxWatcher007]

49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, you’re not wrong. 

I think I can speak for everyone when I say I’d rather have my Christmas tree and all the presents catch fire than watch @ORH_wxman chime in a tracking thread with “we need major changes”.  

[CoastalWx]

50 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Still a ton of run to run changes happening across guidance inside 3 days out on the large scale mid level features.

0.0% chance of new england impacts.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Mid 50s in the valley already. Even have the windows open while I vacuum.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I can speak for everyone when I say I’d rather have my Christmas tree and all the presents catch fire than watch @ORH_wxman chime in a tracking thread with “we need major changes”.  

Yeah, I hate to see the “we need major changes”  and “this run’s not going to get it done” posts in DJF. 

[kdxken]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I can speak for everyone when I say I’d rather have my Christmas tree and all the presents catch fire than watch @ORH_wxman chime in a tracking thread with “we need major changes”.  

Add "thread the needle" and you know it's going to suck.