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Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)


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At the end of the day I think my peak season forecast will be ok, but some underperformances really hurt me near the end. That’s how it goes. It’s still disappointing. 

Was surprised there was no major threat. If not for Humberto, Imelda would’ve been a hit in the Carolinas. 

Yes, SSTs and OHC are only part of the equation. 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Not sure if it was legit, but FVE briefly reported -SN at the ASOS this morning. 

There are echoes overhead there, and it's at 47.3° lat. and 985' asl.  Their average date for first flakes is probably about now.  (Unfortunately, the airport apparently doesn't report snow.)

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely...I equate it to squats in weightlifting.....it's the goliath of lifts, but it's so dependent upon balance, stability and mobility....all of these minute details that are requisite for the unleashing of such fury.

And sort of the opposite to a little dry air entrainment in a hurricane, one moist or liquid ppffffffffftttttttttttt can throw off the whole thing. 

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8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

There are echoes overhead there, and it's at 47.3° lat. and 985' asl.  Their average date for first flakes is probably about now.  (Unfortunately, the airport apparently doesn't report snow.)

Well it was precipitating. The airport ASOS had a brief period of reported snow between the rain obs. The temp was around 37-38 at the time. My skepticism was whether or not it was actually snow of if was just cold rain and the instrumentation was reporting snow in error. Sometimes they do that with marginal temps and light precip. Vis only got down to 8-9 miles too.

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Tropical isn't really a high knowledgeable area of mine, but I thought coming into the season it wasn't going to be a hyperactive season just going off the basics. I think sometimes with this advance in technology and models there is too much infatuation with models and their outputs. Reading the seasonal outlooks from NOAA/Colorado, they always mention how simulations are ran hundreds or thousands of times...sometimes you just have to use the basics and knowledge.   

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Well it was precipitating. The airport ASOS had a brief period of reported snow between the rain obs. The temp was around 37-38 at the time. My skepticism was whether or not it was actually snow of if was just cold rain and the instrumentation was reporting snow in error. Sometimes they do that with marginal temps and light precip. Vis only got down to 8-9 miles too.

Maybe some graupel?

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Tropical isn't really a high knowledgeable area of mine, but I thought coming into the season it wasn't going to be a hyperactive season just going off the basics. I think sometimes with this advance in technology and models there is too much infatuation with models and their outputs. Reading the seasonal outlooks from NOAA/Colorado, they always mention how simulations are ran hundreds or thousands of times...sometimes you just have to use the basics and knowledge.   

I thought slightly AN. Too bullish on the peak, but nailed the big lull and when the tropics would heat up. It was a pretty big comeback but this season never had the runway others did. 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Well it was precipitating. The airport ASOS had a brief period of reported snow between the rain obs. The temp was around 37-38 at the time. My skepticism was whether or not it was actually snow of if was just cold rain and the instrumentation was reporting snow in error. Sometimes they do that with marginal temps and light precip. Vis only got down to 8-9 miles too.

 

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