Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

[Coach McGuirk]

This could be a dud or something huge or in-between.  I think it will rapidly form into a cat 3 but we shall see. 

[wthrmn654]

One thing that's clearly going throw a wrench in recent modeling..... humberto likely going be a Cat 3 or 4 tomorrow and all of a sudden.... may explain models now showing further east stall and some not coming ashore at all.........

[WxWatcher007]

This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action. 

[olafminesaw]

17 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

One thing that's clearly going throw a wrench in recent modeling..... humberto likely going be a Cat 3 or 4 tomorrow and all of a sudden.... may explain models now showing further east stall and some not coming ashore at all.........

I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed

[Newman]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action. 

Agreed. I work at FDEM as one of the mets and we've been trying our best to communicate the uncertainty in the forecast at the 3-4 day range. But at this point, most people expect a solid "answer". Not expecting any direct impacts from Imelda here, but are keeping our Florida East Coast partners well informed.

 

On another note, South Carolina has just declared a state of emergency

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed

Well that was a rough Summary from a professional meteorologist I see online before. 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's nothing right now, nobody knows what will happen. 

[wthrmn654]

18zgfs no landfall!!!!

[NorthHillsWx]

If this “busts” I hope the public understands how tough a forecast this is and the difference between a major impact vs a non event is literally anyone’s guess right now. Good for South Carolina being proactive 

[wthrmn654]

[Coach McGuirk]

18z GFS is bizarre. 

[wthrmn654]

Gefs supports the no landfall the op showed. 

 

This time around there showing how strong humberto is with pressures in the 900s  versus 1000+

[wthrmn654]

Icon starts going up coast by florida then gets pulled towards humberto...

[olafminesaw]

No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI

Euro ai shows low pressures for humberto at the 12z time so we'll see how it does. 

[Kevin Reilly]

One thing that is constant on the models all of them is a blocking area of high pressure streaming down from Eastern Canada and off the New England Coast.

Both of these systems Humberto and Imelda have no chance of getting north of say Outer Banks points northward.  

Looks like 18z GFS just changes everything and the westerlies take over along the East Coast and send everything packing up and heading out to sea it is plausible I suppose.

 

I would say at this juncture that the Outer Banks points north are out of the woods from direct impacts, but we could be setting the stage for rough surf and waves from the systems themselves and also the tight pressure gradient from the high up north and the lows down south.

Honestly these blocking highs up the coast in the Mid-Atlantic and to SE Canada and New England have been a steady feature going back to July and August. 

I would not let your guard down Florida to say Cape Fear NC and head any warnings as Neuman eluded to early.

 

Looks like the blocking gates to the east will open to let Imelda to follow Humberto right out to sea as the blocking comes down from the north and the systems bounce east quite plausible.