WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: 0Z GEFS: 14 of 30 members with SE US landfall with one of those 14 a hurricane Very interesting stuff. Long way to go… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very interesting stuff. Long way to go… 0Z EPS: 29 of 50 hit SE US with ~10-11 as hurricanes Night night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had. Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain... The big story is going to be the rain/flooding. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills. Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 48 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls It looks like they follow the op with substantial spread still in landfall point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I was looking for an Analog yesterday and couldn't find any TS/hurricane that originated near the Bahamas and took a left hook into the Bahamas. Model consensus vs climo, should be a fun showdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Hopefully Humberto overachieving increases the chance that 94L will be more influenced by it in a way that helps the SE US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Still more rainfall after this across NC 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now. Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, NVAwx said: Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi There are other sites out there but I use these when recon is in the air. Expect consistent upper air and low level recon now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago Greg Postell on TWC was just saying he thought there was enough evidence of a low level closed circulation to name this Imelda and isn't sure why it hasn't been named yet. Personally, given the wildly varying model runs to this point, I wonder if the NHC simply wants a bit more time to issue actual track/intensity forecasts. He also mentioned the conflict between anomalously warm waters ahead of Imelda vs. some very dry air aloft forecast to be in its path, making intensity forecasts very difficult - and we already know the impacts of the closed SE low and Humberto with possible Fujiwhara effects are making the track forecast very difficult. The one thing that seems almost a given is that at least parts of SC/NC/VA, especially near the coast, will get a lot of rain - how far inland that very heavy rain gets and whether we're talking 4-8" of rain (which most can handle) or 10-20" of rain (big flooding) is an open question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 12 minutes ago Author Share Posted 12 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Greg Postell on TWC was just saying he thought there was enough evidence of a low level closed circulation to name this Imelda and isn't sure why it hasn't been named yet. Personally, given the wildly varying model runs to this point, I wonder if the NHC simply wants a bit more time to issue actual track/intensity forecasts. He also mentioned the conflict between anomalously warm waters ahead of Imelda vs. some very dry air aloft forecast to be in its path, making intensity forecasts very difficult - and we already know the impacts of the closed SE low and Humberto with possible Fujiwhara effects are making the track forecast very difficult. The one thing that seems almost a given is that at least parts of SC/NC/VA, especially near the coast, will get a lot of rain - how far inland that very heavy rain gets and whether we're talking 4-8" of rain (which most can handle) or 10-20" of rain (big flooding) is an open question. When looking at recon earlier I didn't think that we had anything closed, but perhaps that's a function of the possible LLC being so close to the coast that recon can't get there. Looking at some of the surface observations, I guess you can close this off. I suppose the northerly wind on the south Cuban coast implies some sort of LLC. I just think it's marginal at best for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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