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Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development


WxWatcher007
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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had.

2ZgBXAC.png

Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls

AL94_2025092600_ECENS.png

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After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain...
The big story is going to be the rain/flooding.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb  jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills. :yikes:

Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point 

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now. 

Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in? 

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Greg Postell on TWC was just saying he thought there was enough evidence of a low level closed circulation to name this Imelda and isn't sure why it hasn't been named yet.  Personally, given the wildly varying model runs to this point, I wonder if the NHC simply wants a bit more time to issue actual track/intensity forecasts.  He also mentioned the conflict between anomalously warm waters ahead of Imelda vs. some very dry air aloft forecast to be in its path, making intensity forecasts very difficult - and we already know the impacts of the closed SE low and Humberto with possible Fujiwhara effects are making the track forecast very difficult.  The one thing that seems almost a given is that at least parts of SC/NC/VA, especially near the coast, will get a lot of rain - how far inland that very heavy rain gets and whether we're talking 4-8" of rain (which most can handle) or 10-20" of rain (big flooding) is an open question.  

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7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Greg Postell on TWC was just saying he thought there was enough evidence of a low level closed circulation to name this Imelda and isn't sure why it hasn't been named yet.  Personally, given the wildly varying model runs to this point, I wonder if the NHC simply wants a bit more time to issue actual track/intensity forecasts.  He also mentioned the conflict between anomalously warm waters ahead of Imelda vs. some very dry air aloft forecast to be in its path, making intensity forecasts very difficult - and we already know the impacts of the closed SE low and Humberto with possible Fujiwhara effects are making the track forecast very difficult.  The one thing that seems almost a given is that at least parts of SC/NC/VA, especially near the coast, will get a lot of rain - how far inland that very heavy rain gets and whether we're talking 4-8" of rain (which most can handle) or 10-20" of rain (big flooding) is an open question.  

When looking at recon earlier I didn't think that we had anything closed, but perhaps that's a function of the possible LLC being so close to the coast that recon can't get there. 

QXk5p8w.png

Looking at some of the surface observations, I guess you can close this off. I suppose the northerly wind on the south Cuban coast implies some sort of LLC. I just think it's marginal at best for now. 

KkZnom5.png

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