2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

Wpc

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

Yeah, the chatter across the NWS and WPC has definitely increased today with GSP mentioning a Major Winter Storm this weekend. Of course there are many details to be worked out. I'm keeping an eye on a sneaky little disturbance Thursday for possibly an appetizer before the Big Show!

[mstr4j]

I asked in the other thread and got crickets - maybe it was posted in the wrong thread.  Long time lurker, and I just have a simple question. GSP area bias (no snow since God knows when). Is the issue with the track based on the location of the high?  The high seems rather powerful, I think it was depicted anywhere between a 1040-1058 so cold dry air shouldnt be an issue.  But does the placement of the high (and it literally looks like a 30-50 mile difference) create enough WAA to give sleet and freezing rain vs freezing rain with a powerful high Iike that, which shouldn't budge?  If im not mistaken the last few years the issue was too cold and we had suppression city with New Orleans getting almost a foot, and Myrtle Beach picking up 6 inches. Most of the snows in this area are CAD events right?  Rain cools down column with low dew points, then sleet, before it turns into snow and you hope all your qpf wasn't used in the transition.  I am just curious what makes this setup different. - thanks in advance!

[Maggie Valley Steve]

8 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

I asked in the other thread and got crickets - maybe it was posted in the wrong thread.  Long time lurker, and I just have a simple question. GSP area bias (no snow since God knows when). Is the issue with the track based on the location of the high?  The high seems rather powerful, I think it was depicted anywhere between a 1040-1058 so cold dry air shouldnt be an issue.  But does the placement of the high (and it literally looks like a 30-50 mile difference) create enough WAA to give sleet and freezing rain vs freezing rain with a powerful high Iike that, which shouldn't budge?  If im not mistaken the last few years the issue was too cold and we had suppression city with New Orleans getting almost a foot, and Myrtle Beach picking up 6 inches. Most of the snows in this area are CAD events right?  Rain cools down column with low dew points, then sleet, before it turns into snow and you hope all your qpf wasn't used in the transition.  I am just curious what makes this setup different. - thanks in advance!

I believe that you folks in GSP area are extremely close to a dividing line due to a possibility of a pesky warm nose. That said, this far out (beyond 36 to 48 hours) it is a wait and see situation. There is little doubt that the potential is rather high for a Major Winter Storm from Central Texas and points E to the Atlantic Coast. I believe that certainty is all we can expect for a Storm 5 to 7 days out. You're welcome to hang out with our group. We may not be the most popular, but the knowledge base of our Mountain folk is second to none in my opinion.

[buckeyefan1]

26 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

I asked in the other thread and got crickets - maybe it was posted in the wrong thread.  Long time lurker, and I just have a simple question. GSP area bias (no snow since God knows when). Is the issue with the track based on the location of the high?  The high seems rather powerful, I think it was depicted anywhere between a 1040-1058 so cold dry air shouldnt be an issue.  But does the placement of the high (and it literally looks like a 30-50 mile difference) create enough WAA to give sleet and freezing rain vs freezing rain with a powerful high Iike that, which shouldn't budge?  If im not mistaken the last few years the issue was too cold and we had suppression city with New Orleans getting almost a foot, and Myrtle Beach picking up 6 inches. Most of the snows in this area are CAD events right?  Rain cools down column with low dew points, then sleet, before it turns into snow and you hope all your qpf wasn't used in the transition.  I am just curious what makes this setup different. - thanks in advance!

Maggie Steve is right. It’s too early to say how stacked the cold air will be. All the players have been there for a while now so the devil is in the details as they say, so stay tuned