September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ this part. about 0.10. (NOT zero).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

was hoping for sometime in october....

You must like turning on your heat, I don't even want to think about doing that before November

[donsutherland1]

The system responsible for today's showers and periods of rain will slowly move away from the region tonight and tomorrow. As a result, clouds will break tomorrow morning and a partly to mostly sunny afternoon will follow.

Temperatures will return to the upper 70s tomorrow and then rise further into the lower 80s on Friday. The warmer spots could see some middle 80s on Friday. Cooler air will return for the weekend with another warmup possible starting early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +4.93 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.179 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.