September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ this part. about 0.10. (NOT zero).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

was hoping for sometime in october....

You must like turning on your heat, I don't even want to think about doing that before November

[donsutherland1]

The system responsible for today's showers and periods of rain will slowly move away from the region tonight and tomorrow. As a result, clouds will break tomorrow morning and a partly to mostly sunny afternoon will follow.

Temperatures will return to the upper 70s tomorrow and then rise further into the lower 80s on Friday. The warmer spots could see some middle 80s on Friday. Cooler air will return for the weekend with another warmup possible starting early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +4.93 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.179 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

when will a real patter change happen to a prolonged stretch of cooler 50's type weather....

Definitely not any time within the next 3 weeks.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

 

ISP: 74
PHL: 73
LGA: 72
JFK: 72
TEB: 71
EWR: 70
TTN: 70
New Brnwck: 70
NYC: 70
ACY: 69
BLM: 66

 

[lee59]

Total rain here today 0.00 inches. Now a week of dry weather coming up

[bluewave]

Top down drought with all the record warmth and blocking in Canada forced this system too far to our south. Places like JFK have had their 7 driest September to September period. They are down 11.3” of precipitation over the last year at only 31.99”.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966-09-16	27.41	0
2	1985-09-16	29.11	0
3	1965-09-16	30.62	0
4	1970-09-16	30.92	0
5	1995-09-16	31.41	0
6	2022-09-16	31.84	0
7	2025-09-16	31.99	0
8	2002-09-16	33.14	0
9	1954-09-16	33.40	19
10	1981-09-16	33.42	0

[MANDA]

Had additional showers last evening that helped get the total up to .19".  I'll take it as another 7 day stretch of dry weather is ahead.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, anthonymm said:

80s type snowfall pattern too, but even less.

The 1980s snowfall averaged about 6” higher than the last 7 seasons.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.6	8.2	5.9	2.7	1.0	20.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	2.5	3.0	2.3	3.2	T	11.0
1980-1981	0.0	0.2	1.7	7.7	T	6.9	0.0	16.5
1981-1982	0.0	T	3.1	12.5	0.8	0.3	8.2	24.9
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	4.8	1.0	24.7	0.1	1.5	32.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.2	9.9	T	10.9	T	22.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	12.4	9.0	0.4	T	27.3
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.8	3.0	13.5	T	T	19.3
1986-1987	0.0	0.4	1.0	11.8	7.9	2.0	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	0.0	0.4	3.0	15.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	19.7
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.7	4.7	0.1	2.7	0.0	8.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.7	1.8	3.7	7.3	1.0	T	14.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	6.5	0.0	0.0	12.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.4	10.4	T	0.0	12.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	T	T	1.7	0.4	0.0	2.1
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	17.8	3.2	0.5	0.0	21.7
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	7.2	0.9	26.4	T	T	34.5
2019-2020	0.0	T	1.9	1.9	T	T	T	3.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.8	T	0.7	3.1	6.1	0.0	14.7

 

[FPizz]

.25" yesterday, I'll take it.

 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs after 6A 9/17/25. Isolated near 2" Wall Township in Monmouth.  

[lee59]

Received .02 late yesterday evening and .01 after midnight, take the .03 as it is better than nothing.

[psv88]

0.02!!

[Brian5671]

NJ did well.  Models were too far north for most of LI/CT

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NJ did well.  Models were too far north for most of LI/CT

What a stunner. Shocked and aghast I tell you.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What a stunner. Shocked and aghast I tell you.

It’s pretty wild how fast we dried out after that record deluge last August. 
 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s pretty wild how fast we dried out after that record deluge last August. 
 

Feast or famine. Thank goodness we had the rain we did last week.

[donsutherland1]

The overall dry September is consistent with the exceptionally dry end to August that had occurred. Indeed, the monthly CFSv2 initially called for a wet September before finally reverting to a dry September. Despite early rainfall during the month, highlighted by an unusually wet week following such a dry end to August, monthly rainfall is now below normal in New York City.

Central Park:
September 1-18: 2.30"
1991-2020 Average: 2.52"

The guidance shows little or no rainfall for at least the next seven days.

Statistically, the odds would somewhat favor a rebound in rainfall during October. Since 2000, 64% of drier than normal Septembers were followed by somewhat wetter to wetter than normal Octobers. 

However, with quasi-resonant amplification driven by changes in the Arctic producing "stuck patterns" that lead to longer-duration patterns, a dry October is possible. Indeed, during the last 10 years, dry Septembers were somewhat more likely (56%) to be followed by a drier than normal October. The most recent such case was October 2024.
At present, the CFSv2 is showing drier than normal conditions in the Northeast.

The ECMWF weeklies also begin October with near normal to possibly drier than normal conditions.

October 2005 saw greatly elevated rainfall due to tropical moisture. Moisture from Subtropical Depression 22 dumped 4.49" of rain during October 7-8. Another system moving along a stalled frontal boundary brought 8.64" of rain during October 11-14. Nassau and Suffolk County saw the heaviest amounts with Lynbrook picking up 14.82", Riverhead receiving 14.26", and Wading River seeing 14.52". Moisture from Extratropical Wilma enhanced rainfall from a developing system along a frontal boundary that saw 2.36" rain fall during October 24-26.

The emerging 500 mb pattern could provide insight as one draws closer to October. 

Very dry Octobers (<1.00" monthly rainfall) 1990-2024:

Very wet Octobers (7.00" or more) 1990-2024:

The September 18, 2025 0z EPS at 240 hours and 360 hours leans toward a dry start:

240 Hours:

360 Hours:

[donsutherland1]

Perhaps because his tropical forecast is in bad shape due to a quiet hurricane season so far, Joe Bastardi is now insisting that meteorologists embrace his private fiction of what constitutes a tropical cyclone.

As noted previously, the system had fronts. It was a nor'easter. It was not a tropical cyclone. It should not have been classified as a tropical cyclone any more than a winter nor'easter should be classified as a tropical storm or hurricane.

[STORMANLI]

Well said. Cold-core  low. That alone should dispel any argument.

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Perhaps because his tropical forecast is in bad shape due to a quiet hurricane season so far, Joe Bastardi is now insisting that meteorologists embrace his private fiction of what constitutes a tropical cyclone.

As noted previously, the system had fronts. It was a nor'easter. It was not a tropical cyclone. It should not have been classified as a tropical cyclone any more than a winter nor'easter should be classified as a tropical storm or hurricane.

Well compared to naked swirl aka Gabrielle, maybe he has a point, haha  I don't get how Gabrielle exists at the moment.

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 1980s snowfall averaged about 6” higher than the last 7 seasons.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.6	8.2	5.9	2.7	1.0	20.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	2.5	3.0	2.3	3.2	T	11.0
1980-1981	0.0	0.2	1.7	7.7	T	6.9	0.0	16.5
1981-1982	0.0	T	3.1	12.5	0.8	0.3	8.2	24.9
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	4.8	1.0	24.7	0.1	1.5	32.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.2	9.9	T	10.9	T	22.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	12.4	9.0	0.4	T	27.3
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.8	3.0	13.5	T	T	19.3
1986-1987	0.0	0.4	1.0	11.8	7.9	2.0	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	0.0	0.4	3.0	15.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	19.7
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.7	4.7	0.1	2.7	0.0	8.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.7	1.8	3.7	7.3	1.0	T	14.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	6.5	0.0	0.0	12.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.4	10.4	T	0.0	12.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	T	T	1.7	0.4	0.0	2.1
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	17.8	3.2	0.5	0.0	21.7
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	7.2	0.9	26.4	T	T	34.5
2019-2020	0.0	T	1.9	1.9	T	T	T	3.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.8	T	0.7	3.1	6.1	0.0	14.7

 

Yeah we're easily in the lowest multiyear snow drought. The scary thing is I think the pattern is set. NYC will likely have a mean around 15" for good now. 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Well compared to naked swirl aka Gabrielle, maybe he has a point, haha  I don't get how Gabrielle exists at the moment.

I meant for this to be in the banter thread, but the point is that one has to use established definitions consistently for clear communication. Otherwise, confusion can erode preparedness and public safety.

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I meant for this to be in the banter thread, but the point is that one has to use established definitions consistently for clear communication. Otherwise, confusion can erode preparedness and public safety.

Understood, totally agree.