September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here

They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here. 

Hopefully around .25" falls, but could end up closer to .10"    

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1991)
NYC: 93 (1915)
LGA:  95 (1991)
JFK: 89 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (1984)
NYC: 47 (1966)
LGA: 48 (1984)
JFK:  48 (1959)

Historical:

1875: A hurricane stuck Indianola, TX killing 176 people. 75% of the town was swept away from the disastrous storm surge. The highest wind registered was 88 mph before the anemometer blew away. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1881 - Iowa's earliest measurable snow of record fell over western sections of the state. Four to six inches was reported between Stuart and Avoca. (The Weather Channel)

 

1888: An estimated F2 tornado struck Washington, DC. The tornado first touched down on the south side of the city then moved up Maryland Avenue. The National Museum and Botanical Gardens were damaged before the tornado lifted off the ground. 

1928 - Hurricane San Felipe, a monster hurricane, which left 600 dead in Guadeloupe, and 300 dead in Puerto Rico, struck West Palm Beach FL causing enormous damage, and then headed for Lake Okeechobee. When the storm was over, the lake covered an area the size of the state of Delaware, and beneath its waters were 2000 victims. The only survivors were those who reached large hotels for safety, and a group of fifty people who got onto a raft to take their chances out in the middle of the lake. (David Ludlum)

1915: Boston, Massachusetts has the warmest minimum temperature of 76 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)


1928: The Okeechobee Hurricane, also known as the San Felipe Segundo Hurricane was one of the deadliest hurricanes in the history of the Atlantic basin. This Hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida as a Category 4 storm during the evening hours of the 16th. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of Lake Okeechobee, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet. This storm killed over 4,000 people, including 2,500 in Florida. 

1933: The second major hurricane of the very busy season struck the North Carolina coast near New Bern with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a central pressure of 957 millibars or 28.26 inches of mercury. 76 mph winds were reported at Cape Hatteras, NC. 21 people died and significant damage was reported in Virginia and Maryland. Damage was set at $1 million dollars. The Category 3 storm followed on the heels of the damaging Chesapeake – Potomac Hurricane, which struck the coast in late August (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1961 - Hurricane Esther was seeded by Navy planes in the inaugural experiment of what was to formally become Project STORMFURY next year. Esther was the first hurricane to be initially detected by satellite. On Sept. 10th, TIROS III imaged an area of disturbed weather a hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1964: Concord, NH recorded a morning low of 27°, making this the shortest growing season on record at just 100 days.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1965: Rawlins, WY recorded their greatest daily precipitation on record as 2.06 inches of precipitation fell, including 14.5 inches of snow.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: Hurricane Doria formed off Florida and moved northeast into the Atlantic. However, it reversed course and moved west to the lower Delmarva coast as a hurricane, then turned southwest, making landfall north of Cape Hatteras, NC as a tropical storm. This is a historic hurricane for two reasons. It was the 1st time on record that a tropical system made landfall north of Cape Hatteras, moving from the northeast. Also on this date, a noteworthy first occurred in satellite photography when Doria, Hurricane Chloe, southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada and Hurricane Beulah, about to move into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, were all photographed on the same orbital pass by ESSA 2. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: A record breaking early fall snow storm caused extensive damage to trees and utility lines. The heavy wet snow occurred with little wind but caused record breaking cold temperatures for so early in the season. Snowfall totaled 15.6 inches at Stapleton International Airport with most of the snowfall 12.0 inches occurring on the 17th. This was the heaviest first snow of the season. The maximum snow depth on the ground was 13 inches. Record low temperatures were set on three consecutive days: 31 degrees on the 17th 23 degrees on the 18th and 20 degrees on the 19th which was also a new all-time record minimum for the month at that time. Record low maximum temperatures were set on 4 consecutive days: 48 degrees on the 16th 35 degrees on the 17th 40 degrees on the 18th and 42 degrees on the 19th. Tony Hake Providing Local Weather for Thornton, Colorado (http://www.thorntonweather.com) Early Denver CO Snow

1984 - The remains of Tropical Storm Edourd began to produce torrential rains in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Port Isabel reported more than 21 inches. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Overnight rains soaked Arkansas, with 5.25 inches reported at Bismarck. In the town of Malvern, up to four feet of water was reported over several downtown streets, with water entering some homes and businesses. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Lufkin with 4.30 inches of rain in just three hours. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Missouri. A small tornado near Kirksville lifted a barn thirty feet into the air and then demolished it. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Hurricane Gilbert moved ashore into Mexico. The hurricane established an all-time record for the western hemisphere with a barometric reading of 26.13 inches. Winds approached 200 mph, with higher gusts. Gilbert devastated Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. (The Weather Channel) Hurricane Gilbert made landfall 120 miles south of Brownsville TX during the early evening. Winds gusted to 61 mph at Brownsville, and reached 82 mph at Padre Island. Six foot tides eroded three to four feet off beaches along the Lower Texas Coast, leaving the waterline seventy-five feet farther inland. Rainfall totals ranged up to 8.71 inches at Lamar TX. Gilbert caused three million dollars damage along the Lower Texas Coast, but less than a million dollars damage along the Middle Texas Coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms, respresenting what remained of Hurricane Octave, brought locally heavy rains to California, impeding the drying process for raisins and other crops. Sacramento CA was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in six hours. At Phoenix AZ, the afternoon high of 107 degrees marked a record seventy-six days with afternoon highs 105 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1996: Two weeks after Hurricane Fran lashed eastern North Carolina with torrential flooding rains and 115 mph winds, at least three damaging tornadoes spun through the same communities from severe thunderstorms. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: The remnants of Hurricane Floyd caused major flooding to North Carolina. More than 10 inches of rain fell in a swath from North Carolina to New Jersey. Many streams in the targeted areas reached 100-year and, in some instances, 500-year predicted levels. It ranks among eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, the central and northern Delmarva Peninsula, and New Jersey's most destructive flood disasters. Floyd's Track - Weather Underground (Ref. More Information About Floyd)

2000: The record high of 95° at Denver, Co set three records: 1.) New record high for the date. 2.) The warmest reading for this late in the year. 3.) It marked the 60th day during the year the temperature reached 90° or above, tying the record set back in 1994. Miles City, MT hit 100°, their latest 100 degree reading on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004 - Hurricane Ivan turned northward over cooler waters, and made landfall in southern Alabama as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane Ivan had a very unusual track almost making a huge circle.

Here is the Iowa snowstorm. Must have been a wicked bomb cyclone. Look at the track of that low pressure center. Chicago --> La Crosse, Wisconsin, before drifting southwest into Iowa.

 

[steve392]

74, overcast with a nice cool breeze. 

[donsutherland1]

So far, rainfall is running above the guidance in a number of locations through 18z.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This feels like winter and wondering where the cut off will be lol.

Either way, if this kind of system happens in the winter, there will be a lot of hair being pulled out watching ACY get 20 inches of snow while this area probably wouldn't even reach 6 inches.
 

Whether we get .10 or .50 most people probably won’t notice since it will be rain. Many times models are off by around .5 or more especially during the warm season when convection is involved. But everyone notices the difference between 1” and 5” when snow is involved.

[donsutherland1]

A strong nor'easter was bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Middle Atlantic region late this afternoon. Through 4 pm, Norfolk had picked up 2.14" of rain. The wind has gusted to 44 mph there.

This storm will bring some showers and periods of rain tomorrow into Thursday. The Delmarva and Jersey Shore will see the heaviest amounts. There, 1.00" or above amounts are likely. The temperature will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow.

Readings will likely return to the upper 70s on Thursday and the lower 80s on Friday. Cooler air will return for the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -2.20 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.002 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[Brian5671]

looks like a tropical or subtropical storm off the VA capes

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here is the Iowa snowstorm. Must have been a wicked bomb cyclone. Look at the track of that low pressure center. Chicago --> La Crosse, Wisconsin, before drifting southwest into Iowa.

 

Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL.

But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16.

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL.

But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16.

The difference is the crysophere can still be in place in large swaths of Canada in April whereas it's nowhere to be found in mid September unless you're on the Arctic Ocean. 

[steve392]

Is this rain actually going to make it to tge nyc area?  Trying to decide if I need to water my hydrangeas. 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL.

But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16.

Was September 1881 the month that NYC had its first and also latest 100+ degree temperature on record?

 

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was September 1881 the month that NYC had its first and also latest 100+ degree temperature on record?

 

Yes Sep 7th 101 

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Is this rain actually going to make it to tge nyc area?  Trying to decide if I need to water my hydrangeas. 

Water them heavily then the rain will arrive

[psv88]

75 today. Beautiful 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

PHL: 78
EWR: 77
New Brnswck: 76
ISP: 76
JFK: 76
TEB: 75
LGA: 74
NYC: 74
TTN: 74
BLM: 71
ACY: 71

[lee59]

74 the high here

[Picard]

4 hours ago, steve392 said:

Is this rain actually going to make it to tge nyc area?  Trying to decide if I need to water my hydrangeas. 

My guess is no, and especially not anywhere north of there.  Maybe some sprinkles, light showers to wet the ground, that's probably it, nothing widespread.

[donsutherland1]

Latest HREF:

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Chris, do the models also have warmth on Thursday now, so now it's low 80s on both Thursday and Friday rather than upper 80s on Friday?

 

Friday could be the warmest day at JFK since 8-25 since we are finally getting an offshore flow. Moderate dewpoints and steep low level lapse rates. So mid 80s are possible from the forecast soundings. 

 

[jm1220]

Radar not looking impressive. Probably waves of mist on stiff easterly wind for the most part here.

[bluewave]

Portions of the Northeast could see more drought expansion with the update tomorrow.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Portions of the Northeast could see more drought expansion with the update tomorrow.

 

Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed. 

Having this happen two falls in a row makes me think something might have changed at least for the near term precipitation around here. But it has only been a year and things can flip back to wetter again. This top down warming and drying from Canada is something new for us though.

[Rmine1]

Oh look, the sun is out again. Love this weather, but I was jonesing for an overcast, rainy day. Next time 

[wdrag]

Lost confidence in any meaningful rain near NYS/NJ border and even elsewhere.  Pattern has not induced my expectations this morning in NJ/LI. Could be zero up here in far nw NJ/se NYS unless something comes in off the ocean but right now, just not seeing it.  Modeling seems too heavy on our northern fringe I80 northward but have my fingers crossed something gets going by early afternoon. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

66  / 58 cloudy. Offshore cut off ULL spins around.  NNE/NE flow today, steadiest and heaviest rains in SNJ and staying focused there with light / scattered showers , rain - drizzle north as the systems pulls sway.  Clearing out and warming up Thu/ Fri ahead of a front Friday evening (dry).  Cooler but dry / nice weekend.  Overall warmer from Monday and beyond.   Another low under the ridge cuts off next week to our west but the next chance of rain later next week, overall warm.

 

9/17 - 9/18 :  clouds - showers , breezy - clears 9/18
9/18- 9/19:  Warm up 80s (warmest spots to mid/upper 80s on Friday ahead of front
9/20 - 21 :   Cooler / but dry weekend
9/21 - Beyond :  Warmer overll cut off low may come east by the 25th with next rain chances otherwise dry

 

[Picard]

On 9/14/2025 at 9:32 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Areas for which I have data:

 

Don,

I'm curious where you pull your data?  Is it accessible to anyone?  If it's intuitive enough, I want to play around with the numbers some more for my area.  Thx.

[doncat]

Not including this month yet but since last September, 5 months have had under 2" of rain here. 12 month precip totals getting down into the upper 20's inch range.

[jm1220]

Looks like this low just vertically stacked so it's spinning/raining itself out.

[bluewave]

Top 10 driest September to September period for many stations in the Northeast.