September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[SACRUS]

 

72 / 51 here ENW flow  Clouds movement is fun to watch today low level ENE to SSW and higher clouds SW to NE 

 

[steve392]

18 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Sorry, that is contradictory.  I laugh when I see people wearing sandals shorts, a coat and a winter ski hat.

It's all about comfort.  

[rclab]

12 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Trynna picture what happened between the 2nd and third frame lol

 A fantastic gymnastic move. Pulling the hoodie over with her hands, jumping up and inserting her feet in the hood while still holding on, then flipping out of it. I was not skilled enough to capture the brief video (a grandchild wasn’t with me). The best I could do was the screen shots. The young lady was amazing. As always ….. 

[Stormlover74]

Models seem to have a sneaky .25 to .5" tomorrow particularly for the coast

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, but I follow A LOT of places. For the past decades/years, coop sites would routinely own all of the coldest statewide low temperatures. A lot of people referred to it as an "airport heat effect" but I'm seeing lots of airport sites now in the mix for coldest regional/state lows. They are doing WAY better when it comes to radiating heat away with these new sensors. I can see it with my own two eyes. I'm in the middle of the woods and the airport surrounded by concrete is routinely now seeing low temperatures as low as mine when it used to be several degrees hotter. That's not due to drought.

I haven’t heard any information suggesting that the new sensors being installed at the airports have an inherent cold bias during radiational cooling events.

The coldest temperature in NJ since late August wasn’t from an airport but at the Walpack ,NJ climate station. Plus KFOK which is at an airport has always been a great radiational cooling spot out in the Hamptons.

So very cold readings at airports which happen to located in great radiational cooling locations like the Pine Barrens with sandy soil have been a common occurrence long before the new sensors began to get rolled out. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with a few showers possible in places. Highs will top out mainly in the upper 60s. Thursday could be briefly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. 

A scattered shower or thundershower is possible Thursday night into Friday as a cold front pushes through.

September 1-15 is on track to achieve a solid cool anomaly. Since 2000, there have been nine years that saw a cooler than normal first half of September. Two-thirds of those years went on to record a warmer than normal second half of September. Only two of those years (2017 and 2019) wound up with a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above. Overall, for two-thirds of those years, the cool start was sufficiently cool to produce a cooler than normal monthly anomaly. The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001. The last year to record a cooler than normal first half of September followed by a warmer than normal September was 2024.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was -13.78 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.461 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.3° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.