September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[JustinRP37]

Big question is if this hurricane seasons stays this quiet. If so, then many tropical forecasts will bust. This is one of the slower starts in recent years and it still is quiet. That may change, but development looks to keep the fish busy. We will see, but so far a pleasant fall.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

I noticed you said ‘extra’ dry fall, not sure exactly what you mean but the dry fall isn’t the potential issue IMO. A drier fall typically allows for a more vibrant and longer lasting show. A dry summer could have impacts though. That said, there are a many variables. Timing is huge too and each little microclimate can have its own peak. Not sure when you went to Bear Mountain last year, or how their season was overall, but up here it was one of the better seasons in years. To be fair though, the previous few seasons sucked.  

I meant it more when the dryness begins in August and goes through the foliage season. Last year I went to that area on October 20th.

When I went into the Fort Montgomery Museum and asked about the color, they said the drought ruined their foliage. 

 

[RU848789]

On 8/28/2025 at 2:22 PM, wdrag said:

Well reviewed. I can’t quibble. Main thing for favorable decent event  is a southern short wave separation from northern Jet, eventually shoving northeast.   That option is still there   

if it’s weak then not so good for rain.  WPC starting to show rainfall D7 and CPC with new 6-10 D outlooks etc around 3-4p

Well, as can happen, it's now looking like a 1-day heatwave on Saturday with highs in the Philly area in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, so definitely summery, plus potential showers and t-storms just in time for our son's 4:30 pm wedding ceremony, which is planned to be outdoors (there is an indoor fallback).  Too bad he didn't pick Sunday like I recommended a year ago to avoid the conflict with the RU game on Saturday, lol.  As expected 4 days out the models are all over the place with regard to timing/location of storms and the NWS just has the usual chance of showers due to instability surrounding the frontal progression. Might be one of those "watch the radar and the sky" afternoons.  Any insights appreciated, thanks.  

[bluewave]

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. It will turn somewhat warmer late in the week with highs on Thursday through Saturday reaching the lower and middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the upper 80s.

A system could bring some showers on Friday. Another round of showers is possible late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front crosses the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +6.42 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.510 today. 

 

[Roger Smith]

"1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut."

Plenty of cancelled flights, no doubt.

 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Well, as can happen, it's now looking like a 1-day heatwave on Saturday with highs in the Philly area in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, so definitely summery, plus potential showers and t-storms just in time for our son's 4:30 pm wedding ceremony, which is planned to be outdoors (there is an indoor fallback).  Too bad he didn't pick Sunday like I recommended a year ago to avoid the conflict with the RU game on Saturday, lol.  As expected 4 days out the models are all over the place with regard to timing/location of storms and the NWS just has the usual chance of showers due to instability surrounding the frontal progression. Might be one of those "watch the radar and the sky" afternoons.  Any insights appreciated, thanks.  

No timing insights.  

Periodic showers late Thu-Sunday.  ALL 12z/3 global ensembles are continuing to increase  amounts into the 1/2-spot 2" range I95 west and less east .  So the dry stats may pan out accurate (dry stats for CP), but I have to go with dynamics and until I see all the modeling fade, I'll believe heavier than WPC's 12z/3 capped 1/3rd inch.  

Weak frontal event Thu night.  Front hangs back Fri... next Event(s) this weekend as new frontal system approaches and slowly passes through during the weekend.  Timing of convection and the marginal instability are factors to consider. 

Next week may? get interesting (Sep 10-15).  Ensembles already baggy trough along eastern seaboard at 5H. 

 

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

"1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut."

Plenty of cancelled flights, no doubt.

 

I thought it was Idlewild back then

[cleetussnow]

7 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Big question is if this hurricane seasons stays this quiet. If so, then many tropical forecasts will bust. This is one of the slower starts in recent years and it still is quiet. That may change, but development looks to keep the fish busy. We will see, but so far a pleasant fall.

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors.  Meh.

[Roger Smith]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I saw that Lytton reached 40.0C. A large number of sites in BC exceeded 35C. Today, Lytton could surpass 40C.

Today Ashcroft BC reported 40.6 C. That may not be the highest, may see a more complete list later. 

[Brian5671]

Euro has little to no rain NYC S and E through Sun.    Others are wetter.     I'm going Euro all the way given the dry conditions

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors.  Meh.

Same story most years-most forecasts are too bullish...it's more than just warm water to fuel the storms

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Today Ashcroft BC reported 40.6 C. That may not be the highest, may see a more complete list later. 

I saw 40.8C. We’ll see if that's the final number, but it’s a new national September mark.

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Same story most years-most forecasts are too bullish...it's more than just warm water to fuel the storms

I don't know I still see a late season flurry of activity 

[xram]

11 hours ago, steve392 said:

 

11 hours ago, steve392 said:

Hoping this year will match last years. I wanna get up that way for some foliage pics with Moodna Viaduct.

I never get sick of that view. I live less than a mile from the Viaduct. That view never disappoints in the fall or anytime of year really

[bluewave]

Looks like a back and forth pattern setting up this month. Next chance for low 90s at the usual NJ warm spots Friday into Saturday. Then cooler weather returns for next week with a warm up again in mid-September.

 

 

[Dark Star]

12 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors.  Meh.

There are many factors that go into Hurricane Season predictions, but the easiest is to assume that the ultra warm Gulf would enhance any system?  Looks like the Hurricane season predictions will be wrong 2 years in a row?

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, xram said:

I never get sick of that view. I live less than a mile from the Viaduct. That view never disappoints in the fall or anytime of year really

Sorry, this is how my brain works...

[MJO812]

12 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors.  Meh.

Still early 

[MANDA]

Area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic is starting to organize.  Finally something to watch.  Would expect an invest later today or tomorrow.

Safe re curvature is not a given.  Some impacts to at least the eastern Caribbean islands mid next week seem pretty plausible.  Beyond that ?

[Stormlover74]

Hopefully most places west of nyc can squeeze out a quarter inch tonight

 

[MANDA]

Invest 91L just designated for Atlantic wave.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know that we are in a drought pattern when a record upper low digging into the Western Great Lakes can’t manage to produce more than just some scattered convection here through the weekend. 
 

 

models already drying up for the weekend as well-mostly N and W of NYC and not much along the coast

[steve392]

When my dog runs around the backyard it's like watching a horse run through the wild west with all the dust and dead grass getting kicked up lol

[SACRUS]

 

82 / 56 - warmest day in a while and tomorrow and Saturday (pending on clouds) the warmest since Aug 17th.  Scattered showers/storms Fri / Say s front clears.  Overall warmer - onshore will keep any chance for heat at bay much of the first part of next week with ridge north again.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:
 

Highs

EWR: 95 (2018)
NYC: 97 (1929)
LGA: 93 (2018)
JFK: 93 (2018)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1997)
NYC: 47 (1883)
LGA: 64 (1997)
JFK: 53 (1997)

Historical:


1766: A hurricane made landfall at modern-day Galveston, Texas. The following is from David Roth of the Weather Prediction Center. “A mission, named San Augustine de Ahumado was located in what is nowadays known as Chambers County. This mission was destroyed and subsequently abandoned. A seven-foot storm surge put the area under water. A richly-laden treasure fleet of 5 galleons en route from Vera Cruz to Havana was driven ashore and had to wait many weeks for assistance to come. La Caraqueña wrecked on Galveston Island while El Nuevo de Constante sank along the western Louisiana coast. Fortunately, much of the treasure and people aboard were saved.”

1939 - A thunderstorm deluged Washington D.C. with 4.4 inches of rain in two hours. September of that year was very dry across much of the nation, and Washington D.C. received more rain in that two hour period than most other places in the country that entire month. (David Ludlum)

 

1941: A violent tornado ripped through Northeast and North Minneapolis shortly afternoon on this day. The hardest-hit location was the Soo Line Railroad’s Shoreham Yards where four people died, and at least 50 were injured. The death toll at Soo Line could have been higher, but the tornado struck five minutes after the lunch bell went off, meaning 100 men left the shops.

1945: Record heat blasted parts of the Southwest into the Plains. The high of 108° established the record high for the month of September at Liberal, KS. Other daily records included: Yuma, AZ: 116°, Phoenix, AZ: 112°, Las Vegas, NV: 109°, Tucson, AZ: 106 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1965: Hurricane Betsy stalled 350 miles east of Jacksonville, FL just before the busy Labor Day holiday weekend, causing major headaches for weather forecasters. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1970 - The greatest natural disaster of record for Arizona occurred. Unprecedented rains caused rivers in central Arizona to rise five to ten feet per hour, sweeping cars and buildings as far as 30 to 40 miles downstream. Flooding claimed the lives of 23 persons, mainly campers, and caused millions of dollars damage. Water crested 36 feet above normal near Sunflower AZ. Workman's Creek was deluged with 11.40 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. Moisture from Pacific Tropical Storm Norma led to the severe flooding. (4th-6th) (The Weather Channel)

1983: Record heat occurred across parts of the Midwest and Plains ahead of a strong cold front. Record highs included: El Paso, TX: 101°, Roswell, NM: 100°-Tied, Chicago, IL: 95 °F -Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986 - An unusually strong dust devil moved across the Flagstaff Pulliam Airport. The dust devil blew open the doors of the National Weather Service office scattering papers and bringing down a ceiling-mounted light fixture. (Storm Data)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced heavy rain across the Southern Atlantic Coast States. Up to eight inches was reported north of Charleston SC. Serious flooding was reported in Monks Corner SC. Seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Houlton ME dipped to 32 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The western U.S. experienced another day of record heat. The afternoon high of 91 degrees at Stampede Pass WA established an all-time record for that location, and Los Angeles CA equalled their all-time record high with a reading of 110 degrees. A record high of 107 degrees at San Diego CA was their hottest reading in 25 years. Red Bluff CA was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon reading of 118 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Overnight thunderstorm rains of four and a half to seven inches drenched eastern Nebraska during the morning hours, pushing creeks out of their banks, and flooding fields, country roads and city streets. Totals ranged up to 6.97 inches south of Creston. It was also a soggy Labor Day for northern Florida. Jacksonville reported 6.82 inches of rain, and evening thunderstorms produced 2.75 inches of rain in one hour at Sandlewood. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1996: Hurricane Fran reached peak strength of 120 mph 275 miles off the east coast of Florida. The Space Shuttle Atlantis had to be rolled back from its launch pad at Cape Canaveral as the storm threatened the east coast of Florida. The storm would make landfall the following evening on the North Carolina coast to become the most damaging hurricane of the 1996 Atlantic season. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998: Scottsbluff, NE equaled their warmest September temperature with a high of 102°. Other record highs included: Fort Smith, AR: 109°, Dallas, TX: 108°, Dallas (DFW), TX: 108°, Wichita Falls, TX: 108°, Oklahoma City, OK: 107°, Tulsa, OK: 107°, Waco, TX: 106° and Austin (Camp Mabry), TX: 101°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2000: Houston and College Station, Texas recorded their hottest day on record when highs reached 109° and 112° respectively. Houston has tied their record on August 27th, 2011. Other daily record highs included: Wichita Falls, TX: 111°, Waco, TX: 111°, Dallas, (DFW), TX: 111°, Austin, (Bergstrom), TX: 110°, Austin (Camp Mabry), TX: 110°, Dallas, TX: 110°, Victoria, TX: 110°, San Antonio, TX: 109°, Shreveport, LA: 108°, Corpus Christi, TX: 107 °F. 

2006: A slow moving low pressure system triggered scattered thunderstorms across northern Illinois during the afternoon. A series of slow moving storms moved into and sat over the east side of Rockford. As much as 5 to 10 inches of rain fell in a localized area, while less than 3/4 inch fell nearby at the airport. Damage was estimated around $20 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2007: Hurricane Felix came ashore in the pre-dawn hours as a Category 5 storm on the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. At the time of its landfall, the maximum sustained surface winds were approximately 160 mph. Felix killed at least 130 people along the coast, with damage in Nicaragua totaling $46.7 million. 

2008: The remnants of Hurricane Gustav brought heavy rains to southern Lower Michigan. Muskegon set a daily rainfall record of 3.25 inches and Grand Rapids sets a record with 2.82 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2011: The center of Tropical Storm Lee moved ashore around sunrise. However, it would be a while before Lee would weaken to a depression as it remained nearly stationary while the southern half of the circulation was over water where it could continue to derive additional energy from the warm ocean. Lee brought torrential rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

 

2016: An EF1 tornado developed in the open country area north of Merna, Wyoming. The tornado caused tree damage along its 2.45-mile path. At its widest, the tornado produced sporadic tree damage approximately 300 yards across. The trees fell on some fence line but otherwise caused no property damage.

[MANDA]

Perhaps if the under modeled stronger WAR ridge in longer range guidance persists we can get some kind of tropical remnant to come up along the Appalachians out of the eastern GOM before the hurricane season quits.  I think easier to do that than to get something to ride up along or just off the east coast.

[MANDA]

Just minor increase in drought conditions over our sub forum week over week.  Big increase in Severe Drought conditions over central New England.  Related most likely to not only the lack of rainfall but all of the over the top warmth making the dry conditions worse.

The entire Northeast needs rain.  Hopefully we get SOMETHING over the next 7 days.  Some locations perhaps .50" to 1" over the next 7 day period but you gotta take the under with the way things have been going.

[steve392]

Line of storms is starting to look impressive.  Hopefully it holds together and hits after i get home lol

[Roger Smith]

I try to remember to post these on the first but anyway here we go ...

<<<< SEPTEMBER daily records, NYC >>>>

Date ___ Hi max __ Hi min ___ Low max _ Low min ___ 1d rain __ 2d rain __ notes

Sep 01 __ 97 1953 __ 76 1898^_____ 59 1869 __ 51 1869 _______ 7.13 2021 _ 7.13 2021  

Sep 02 _102 1953 __ 79 1898 _____ 62 1869 __ 51 1886 _______ 2.12 1899 _ 7.23 2021 

Sep 03 __ 99 1929 __ 78 1898 _____ 62 1935 __ 50 1885, 93 ___ 3.32 1969 _ 3.44 1974 (0.18+3.26)

Sep 04 __ 97 1929 __ 78 1898 _____ 66 1984 __ 47 1872, 83 ___ 3.48 1913 _ 6.28 1969 

Sep 05 __ 94 1985 __ 77 1898 _____ 62 1926 __ 51 1963 ________2.45 1878 _ 4.14 1913 

Sep 06 __ 97 1881 __ 78 1985 ______ 56 1963 __ 48 1924 _______3.26 2008 _ 3.54 2008 __ 3.22 2011 (1d)

Sep 07 __101 1881 __ 79 1881 _______ 63 1877,88 _46 1888 _____ 2.07 1998 _ 4.43 2011 (3.22 + 1.21)  

Sep 08 __ 97 2015 __ 76 2015 _______ 63 1918 __ 52 1871 ______ 4.86 1934 _ 5.48 1934 __ 3.77 2004 (1d)

Sep 09 __ 94 1915 __ 77 1884 _______ 61 1880,83 _48 1883 _____0.86 1902 _ 4.86 1934**

Sep 10 __ 97 1931,83 _77 1884 ______ 62 1883 __ 43 1883 ______ 1.80 2023 _ 1.82 2023 

Sep 11 __ 99 1931,83 _ 78 1983 ______61 1876,1914 _43 1917 (62)__ 2.90 1954 _ 3.46 2023 _ (3.30 1954)

Sep 12 __ 94 1961 __ 77 1895 _______ 62 1883 __ 46 1917 ________2.35 1960 _ 3.23 1882 

Sep 13 __ 94 1952 __ 75 1890 _______ 59 1965 __ 46 1963 _______3.94 1944 _ 5.58 1944 __ 3.37 1889 2d

Sep 14 __ 93 1931 __ 74 1947 _______ 60 1873 _____46 1911, 75 ___3.82 1944 _ 7.76 1944 _ 3.10 1945 (1d) 

Sep 15 __ 92 1927 __ 75 1931,2005 _ 57 1954 _____44 1873 ______4.16 1933 _ 7.00 1933

Sep 16 __ 93 1915 __ 73 1903,2005 _ 60 1872 _____47 1966 ______5.02 1999 _ 5.44 1999 __ 4.38 1933 (2d)

Sep 17 __ 93 1991 __ 77 1991 ________ 57 1945 _____45 1986 ______3.37 1876 _ 4.14 1874 __ 3.28 1874 (1d)

Sep 18 __ 91 1891 __ 72 1905, 72 ____ 60 1875 _____44 1990 ______3.92 1936 _ 6.23 1874 

Sep 19 __ 94 1983 __ 74 1906 _______ 51 1875^____ 44 1929 ______4.30 1894 _ 5.16 1894 __ 3.95 1936 (2d)

Sep 20 __ 93 1895, 1983_77 1906 _____59 1901 _____44 1993 ______2.32 1989 _ 4.21 1989

Sep 21 __ 95 1895 __ 77 1895 ________56 1871 _____40 1871 _______5.54 1966 _ 5.74 1938 __ 4.05 1938 (1d)

Sep 22 __ 95 1895,1914_75 1895 ______55 1875,1904__41 1904 ______2.34 1882 _ 5.64 1966 __ 3.55 1882 (2d)

Sep 23 __ 97 1895 __ 77 1970 _______57 1963 _____ 41 1947 ______ 8.28 1882__10.62 1882 __ 2.72 1919 (1d)

Sep 24 __ 91 2017 __ 74 1970 _______ 52 1887 _____40 1963 ______ 2.26 1975 _ 8.30 1882 __ 4.56 1975 (2d)

Sep 25 __ 90 1970 __ 71 1881,1970 __ 53 1879 _____40 1887 _______2.36 1940 _ 3.31 1975 __ 7.43" 4d total 23-26 1975

Sep 26 __ 91 1881, 1970_74 1895 _____ 54 2000 _____42 1940 ______ 2.34 2008 _ 2.87 1975 __ 2.35" 1991 (1.97+0.38)

Sep 27 __ 90 1933 __ 75 1881 ______ 56 1893 _____41 1947, 57 ____ 3.13 1985 _ 3.58 1985

Sep 28 __ 88 1881 __ 72 1891 ______ 53 1984 _____41 1947 ________ 3.84 2004 _ 3.84 2004 

Sep 29 __ 88 1945 __ 72 1959,2015 _ 53 1888 ____ 42 1888,1914,42 __5.48 2023 _ 5.84 2023^ _

Sep 30 __ 89 1986 __ 70 1959 ______ 52 1888 ____ 39 1912 (hi 60)__ 2.64 1983 _ 2.64 1983 __ 2.21 1920 (1d)

-- - - - - - - - - - - - - --

For 2d rainfalls, which are always total of previous date and current date in table,

^symbol means all rain fell on that day only, and

** symbol means all rain fell the previous day with zero added on date in table.

some other notes

1st high min shared 1898, 1980, 2010, 2015

2nd, 3rd 1953 min 77, 77. also 75 on 3rd, 1973.

2nd __ note also 3.00 2-3 for 1899

3rd 2d rain 1969 3.45" (0.11 + 3.32) .01" less than 1974 2d.

1st-7th hot in 1898: 93, 93, 93, 92, 90, 88, 88 (no records though, set or shared high min 1st-5th) 

5th high min shared 1898, 1907, 1985, 2018

9th 0.82" is lowest daily precip record of the calendar year. 

14th 2d rain 1971 4.34 (0.58 + 3.76) ... 3d 12th-14th 6.10"

19th min with record low max was 45 (one higher than daily low min)

20-21 1938 the 2d rainfall total occurred with stalled fronts associated with the "Long Island Express" hurricane, with rain on 19th added the three day total was 7.50" and a further 0.63" fell on 17th-18th. The heavier rainfall on 21st 1966 pushed the daily max of 4.05" out of the record column. The 1966 rainfall was not of tropical storm origins. The 2d total for 20-21 was 5.56" (only 0.02" added from 20th) which did not quite exceed the 2d total for 1938. 

28-29 4.68 2004 (3.84+0.82) and 28-29 another heavy 2d rainfall was 3.04" in 1907 (0.91+2.13). 

29 record rainfall before 2023 was 2.18" 1963