September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[JustinRP37]

Big question is if this hurricane seasons stays this quiet. If so, then many tropical forecasts will bust. This is one of the slower starts in recent years and it still is quiet. That may change, but development looks to keep the fish busy. We will see, but so far a pleasant fall.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

I noticed you said ‘extra’ dry fall, not sure exactly what you mean but the dry fall isn’t the potential issue IMO. A drier fall typically allows for a more vibrant and longer lasting show. A dry summer could have impacts though. That said, there are a many variables. Timing is huge too and each little microclimate can have its own peak. Not sure when you went to Bear Mountain last year, or how their season was overall, but up here it was one of the better seasons in years. To be fair though, the previous few seasons sucked.  

I meant it more when the dryness begins in August and goes through the foliage season. Last year I went to that area on October 20th.

When I went into the Fort Montgomery Museum and asked about the color, they said the drought ruined their foliage. 

 

[RU848789]

On 8/28/2025 at 2:22 PM, wdrag said:

Well reviewed. I can’t quibble. Main thing for favorable decent event  is a southern short wave separation from northern Jet, eventually shoving northeast.   That option is still there   

if it’s weak then not so good for rain.  WPC starting to show rainfall D7 and CPC with new 6-10 D outlooks etc around 3-4p

Well, as can happen, it's now looking like a 1-day heatwave on Saturday with highs in the Philly area in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, so definitely summery, plus potential showers and t-storms just in time for our son's 4:30 pm wedding ceremony, which is planned to be outdoors (there is an indoor fallback).  Too bad he didn't pick Sunday like I recommended a year ago to avoid the conflict with the RU game on Saturday, lol.  As expected 4 days out the models are all over the place with regard to timing/location of storms and the NWS just has the usual chance of showers due to instability surrounding the frontal progression. Might be one of those "watch the radar and the sky" afternoons.  Any insights appreciated, thanks.  

[bluewave]

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. It will turn somewhat warmer late in the week with highs on Thursday through Saturday reaching the lower and middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the upper 80s.

A system could bring some showers on Friday. Another round of showers is possible late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front crosses the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +6.42 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.510 today. 

 

[Roger Smith]

"1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut."

Plenty of cancelled flights, no doubt.

 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Well, as can happen, it's now looking like a 1-day heatwave on Saturday with highs in the Philly area in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, so definitely summery, plus potential showers and t-storms just in time for our son's 4:30 pm wedding ceremony, which is planned to be outdoors (there is an indoor fallback).  Too bad he didn't pick Sunday like I recommended a year ago to avoid the conflict with the RU game on Saturday, lol.  As expected 4 days out the models are all over the place with regard to timing/location of storms and the NWS just has the usual chance of showers due to instability surrounding the frontal progression. Might be one of those "watch the radar and the sky" afternoons.  Any insights appreciated, thanks.  

No timing insights.  

Periodic showers late Thu-Sunday.  ALL 12z/3 global ensembles are continuing to increase  amounts into the 1/2-spot 2" range I95 west and less east .  So the dry stats may pan out accurate (dry stats for CP), but I have to go with dynamics and until I see all the modeling fade, I'll believe heavier than WPC's 12z/3 capped 1/3rd inch.  

Weak frontal event Thu night.  Front hangs back Fri... next Event(s) this weekend as new frontal system approaches and slowly passes through during the weekend.  Timing of convection and the marginal instability are factors to consider. 

Next week may? get interesting (Sep 10-15).  Ensembles already baggy trough along eastern seaboard at 5H. 

 

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

"1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut."

Plenty of cancelled flights, no doubt.

 

I thought it was Idlewild back then

[cleetussnow]

7 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Big question is if this hurricane seasons stays this quiet. If so, then many tropical forecasts will bust. This is one of the slower starts in recent years and it still is quiet. That may change, but development looks to keep the fish busy. We will see, but so far a pleasant fall.

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors.  Meh.

[Roger Smith]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I saw that Lytton reached 40.0C. A large number of sites in BC exceeded 35C. Today, Lytton could surpass 40C.

Today Ashcroft BC reported 40.6 C. That may not be the highest, may see a more complete list later. 

[Brian5671]

Euro has little to no rain NYC S and E through Sun.    Others are wetter.     I'm going Euro all the way given the dry conditions

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors.  Meh.

Same story most years-most forecasts are too bullish...it's more than just warm water to fuel the storms

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Today Ashcroft BC reported 40.6 C. That may not be the highest, may see a more complete list later. 

I saw 40.8C. We’ll see if that's the final number, but it’s a new national September mark.

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Same story most years-most forecasts are too bullish...it's more than just warm water to fuel the storms

I don't know I still see a late season flurry of activity 

[xram]

11 hours ago, steve392 said:

 

11 hours ago, steve392 said:

Hoping this year will match last years. I wanna get up that way for some foliage pics with Moodna Viaduct.

I never get sick of that view. I live less than a mile from the Viaduct. That view never disappoints in the fall or anytime of year really